Morning Digest: Scandal-ridden Republican could usher in far-right rule in Arizona's largest county

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors: Far-right Republicans are hoping that the July 30 primaries will set them up to take control of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors this fall, but one of their candidates is going to have to overcome some unwelcome late-breaking news to prevail.

"Maricopa County candidate accused of real estate fraud," News 12 says of former Arizona state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, who is challenging Supervisor Tom Galvin for renomination in a conservative seat that includes the cities of Mesa and Scottsdale. Reporter Joe Dana says that Ugenti-Rita, who is a former real estate agent, falsely listed herself as "unmarried" on financial documents she filed in April 2023, including on a deed trust.

Dana further reports that the candidate's husband went on to file for divorce last August and submitted a court filing saying, "Marital residence … was acquired during the marriage solely in Wife's name and is fraudulently titled to her 'as a single person.'" Ugenti-Rita did not respond to Dana's emails for comment and would not say anything to him in person.

What Ugenti-Rita is doing, though, is spreading election conspiracy theories about "ballot harvesting" on social media. On Tuesday, Ugenti-Rita also retweeted a supporter who called Galvin "a Never Trumper who did NOT stand up and fight for election integrity in 2022" and "did not think that anything nefarious happened, despite all of the evidence." This is nothing new for the former state senator, who sponsored aggressive voting restrictions in Arizona following the 2020 elections.

Ugenti-Rita, whom Arizona Republic columnist Abe Kwok dubbed "[t]he angriest candidate for county supervisor," has also accused the incumbent of using his position on the county library district board to promote "sexually explicit content." (Kwok says these materials are "books with LGBTQ+ themes.") The challenger, the paper's editorial board recently highlighted, is pursuing this line of attack "without irony" eight years after a female lobbyist accused Ugenti-Rita of trying to convince her to take part in a threesome.

Galvin, for his part, won his 2022 special election primary by beating foes who promoted election conspiracy theories. "I wasn't there during much of the response to the 2020 election, but my three opponents tried to make it about that," he told the Arizona Republic in 2022, "and frankly, their platforms and their campaigns, from all three of them, was just based on lies, and what I did was I met with folks and I told the truth." Galvin and the other members of this five-person body went on to defy Republican Kari Lake and her supporters by certifying the results of the fall election, including Democrat Katie Hobbs' victory over Lake for governor.

While the winner of the GOP primary will be favored to prevail in the general election for the 2nd District, which, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, supported Donald Trump 53-46 four years ago, the outcome of two other primaries could have larger repercussions for the fall general election. Republicans currently enjoy a 4-1 majority on the Board of Supervisors for Arizona's largest county, but Democrats would take control for the first time since 1968 if they flipped two competitive seats that President Joe Bidden carried in 2020.

One of those constituencies is the 3rd District, where GOP Supervisor Bill Gates is retiring after years of extreme harassment from far-right conspiracy theorists. Former Phoenix City Council member Daniel Valenzuela has no Democratic primary opposition ahead of his quest to flip this seat, which backed Biden 54-45.

The GOP primary pits former state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee against attorney Tabatha LaVoie. Brophy McGee, according to Kwok, is a relative moderate, while LaVoie, echoing language used by many on the right, warns on her website that Maricopa "cannot continue to raise doubts about the integrity of our elections." (There is no evidence that Maricopa's elections have been anything but free and fair.)

Republican Supervisor Jack Sellers, who has also been the recipient of death threats from Big Lie spreaders, faces a primary challenge from the right in the 1st District, which went for Biden by a narrower 51-48 margin. His opponent is Chandler City Councilman Mark Stewart, who has refused to say whether Biden or Hobbs were rightfully elected or if he'd have certified their respective victories. The Democratic candidate is Tempe City Council member Joel Navarro, who last year predicted to Axios that Sellers, whom he said was doing a "wonderful job," wouldn't win renomination.

The far-right, however, is all but assured to gain a foothold on the Board of Supervisors this cycle no matter what happens in the aforementioned three seats. GOP Supervisor Clint Hickman, who has also received threats to his life, is not seeking reelection in the 5th District, which is the most conservative of the five constituencies.

Rep. Debbie Lesko, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, is the favorite to succeed Hickman. Lesko belongs to the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, and she's consistently supported her party's most extreme positions, including voting to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Lesko's only primary foe, Grand Canyon University professor Bob Branch, has been even more outspoken about promoting election lies. Branch narrowly lost his 2018 primary for state superintendent of public institutions, but he continues to claim he really "won" that contest.

The one Democrat on the Board of Supervisors is Steve Gallardo, who has no primary to worry about in his safely blue 5th District. Gallardo has expressed optimism about his party's prospects, saying last year that he's "looking forward to becoming the Chairman" of the board following the 2024 elections.

Senate

● NJ-Sen: Convicted Sen. Bob Menendez formally notified Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy on Tuesday that he would resign, with his departure taking effect on Aug. 20. But Menendez, who remains a member of the Democratic caucus, has not yet said if he'll end his independent campaign for his seat; the deadline to withdraw from the general election ballot is Aug. 16.

It will be up to Murphy to appoint a new senator, though it's not clear if there would be enough time to hold a special election this year for the remaining months of his term. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who won the June primary, is the favorite to win this fall's regularly scheduled race for a full six-year term.

Governors

● CA-Gov: Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced Tuesday that he was entering the 2026 top-two primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, a fellow California Democrat who defeated him for this post in 2018. And while it may seem early for candidates to launch bids for office well ahead of this year's presidential election, four other notable Democrats each announced bids to lead America's most populous state well before Villaraigosa entered the race.

The field already featured Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former state Comptroller Betty Yee, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and state Sen. Toni Atkins, who stepped down as leader of the upper chamber earlier this year. The field could grow further, as more big names are also eyeing this race.

Villaraigosa has been a prominent figure in state politics for decades, though his electoral career has stalled in recent years. The Democrat first won a seat in the California Assembly in 1994, and he became speaker in 1998. And while Villaraigosa went on to lose the 2001 race for mayor of America's second-largest city to fellow Democrat Jim Hahn, he won a decisive victory in their rematch four years later.

But while Villaraigosa, who was Los Angeles' first Latino chief executive since 1872, quickly became a rising star in California politics, he struggled to obtain statewide office. Though the mayor spent the first months of 2009 looking likely to run for governor the next year, he ultimately announced he'd stay put after polls showed him struggling against the state's once and future Democratic governor, then-Attorney General Jerry Brown. (Newsom, who was mayor of San Francisco at the time, initially opposed Brown before switching to his successful campaign for lieutenant governor.)

It would take the better part of a decade for Villaraigosa, who was termed out in 2013, to get another opening. After considering a 2016 bid against Attorney General Kamala Harris to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer, the former mayor ultimately announced he would run in 2018 to replace Brown as governor.

Villaraigosa, though, struggled to gain traction against Newsom in the top-two primary. While the former mayor, who ran to Newsom's right by calling single-payer health care "snake oil," benefited from heavy spending by wealthy charter school advocates, he still lacked his opponent's vast financial resources.

The lieutenant governor did his part to make sure his intraparty rival's campaign would end in round one by running ads designed to raise the profile of Republican businessman John Cox, whom he knew would pose little threat in the general election in this dark blue state. Newsom's strategy worked as planned: The lieutenant governor led with 34%, while Cox beat out Villaraigosa 25-13 before badly losing to Newsom in November.

But Villaraigosa, who later became the Newsom administration's infrastructure chief, is hoping things will go differently in a 2026 race where a front-runner has yet to emerge. The new candidate once again is pitching himself as a "problem solver" who can work with others, including Republicans.

House

● AK-AL: The NRCC's opening ad campaign against Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola marks the true start of the TV advertising season for the general election from the top four House outside groups, as its allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund previously did only some limited TV advertising.

The inaugural spot, which was almost certainly prepared before President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign Sunday, ties Peltola to the president. The commercial does not mention the new Democratic standard-bearer, Vice President Kamala Harris.

● TX-18: State Rep. Jarvis Johnson on Tuesday became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign to succeed the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died the previous week. The executive committee of the Harris County Democratic Party has until Aug. 26 to select a new general election nominee for Texas' safely blue 18th District.

Johnson was a member of the Houston City Council in 2010 when he launched a primary bid against Jackson Lee, but his effort ended in a 67-28 defeat. That bad showing, though, didn't prevent Johnson from winning a spot in the legislature in 2016. However, he lost to fellow Democrat Molly Cook twice this year in a special election for the state Senate and in the regularly scheduled primary runoff. (The latter campaign ended in a tight 50.2-49.8 victory for Cook―a margin of 62 votes.)

Johnson is unlikely to be the only Democrat in contention for Jackson Lee's seat. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who left office at the start of this year, tells KHOU that he's considering. Two more local Democrats, former Houston City Councilmember Dwight Boykins and pastor James Dixon, expressed interest to the Houston Chronicle.

The paper also mentions state Rep. Jolanda Jones and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who badly lost the March primary to Jackson Lee, as potential candidates, but neither of them appears to have publicly said anything about their plans.

● WA-06: Punchbowl News reports that Protect Progress, a super PAC aligned with the crypto industry, has launched a $1.4 million ad campaign to promote Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall in the Aug. 6 top-two primary for Washington's 6th District. The opening spot tells viewers that Randall "would make history as the first LGBTQ Latina in Congress," and she has the support of Sen. Patty Murray and Planned Parenthood.

The only other Democrat on the ballot, Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz, has not benefited from any major outside spending, though she does have the endorsement of retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer. GOP state Sen. Drew MacEwen is also in, and while he's raised little money for his quest to flip this Tacoma-based seat, he may be able to edge out one of the two Democrats next month. Joe Biden carried the 6th District 57-40 four years ago.

Attorneys General

● MO-AG: Sen. Josh Hawley on Monday endorsed appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey ahead of his expensive Aug. 6 Republican primary against Will Scharf, who is one of Donald Trump's attorneys. Hawley himself was elected to this post in 2016, but he left to wage his successful Senate bid the following cycle.

Grab Bag

● Running Mates: If you're anything like us, the first thing you wonder whenever you hear a Democratic office holder being discussed as a potential running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris is, "What would happen to their seat if they won?" State constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain takes a look at that very question at Guaranteed Republics for the six governors and one senator―Arizona's Mark Kelly―who are reportedly in contention for the number-two spot.  

History would be on Kelly's side, as Joshua Spivak notes in a piece for US News & World Report that 16 of the last 17 Democratic vice presidential nominees were senators. (One of those 16, Missouri Sen. Thomas Francis Eagleton, stepped down in 1972 and was replaced by former Peace Corp head Sargent Shriver.) But if Harris made one of those governors her running mate, that person would fill a role that no Democratic presidential nominee has done in a century.

Spivak highlights that the last sitting governor to serve as the party's vice presidential nominee was Nebraska Gov. Charles Bryan in 1924, an era when each ticket was still selected at party conventions. The team of John W. Davis, who won the presidential nod after a grueling 103 ballots, and Bryant ended up losing in a landslide to Republican President Calvin Coolidge and his running mate, Charles Dawes.

While few could blame Bryant, who was the brother of three-time presidential nominee William Jennings Bryant, for that debacle, Democrats have yet to pick another sitting governor to be their vice presidential contender. (Some senators who occupied this role, most recently Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine in 2016, had previously been their state's chief executive.) Republicans have shown no such hesitancy, with Alaska's Sarah Palin and Indiana's Mike Pence most recently filling that role.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Clean and Prosperous America: Ruben Gallego (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 42
• NE-Sen-A: Red Wave Strategy Group (R)/Impact Research (D) for Dan Osborn: Deb Fischer (R-inc): 42, Dan Osborn (I): 42
• NC-Gov: Public Policy Polling (D) for Clean and Prosperous America: Josh Stein (D): 48, Mark Robinson (R): 42

Ad Roundup

• MT-Sen: One Nation - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)
• NV-Sen: WinSenate (SMP affiliate) - anti-Sam Brown (R)
• PA-Sen: One Nation - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)
• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D)
• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)
• MO-Gov: Bill Eigel (R)
• NH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R)
• CO-03: Adam Frisch (D)
• FL-01: Florida Patriots PAC - anti-Matt Gaetz (R-inc)
• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)
• NV-02: Greg Kidd (I) (part of $535,000 buy)
• NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc) - anti-Alison Esposito (R)
• WA-06: Emily Randall (D)
• WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (D) - anti-Derrick Van Orden (R-inc); Katrina Shankland (D) (here, here, and here)
• WI-08: Roger Roth (R); Tony Wied (R)