What to watch as Republican National Convention kicks off after assassination attempt

The Republican National Convention starts Monday in Milwaukee, two days after Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt, with the violent scene at his campaign rally horrifying the country and amplifying already intense political divisions.

Trump and his advisers are pledging resilience in the face of the attack, with plans going forward for the event to showcase the former president and his platform as his party formally chooses him to be its nominee.

It was not immediately clear if and how Saturday’s attack would alter the four-day event, which normally has a celebratory atmosphere. Republican officials have said they want to defy the threat Trump has faced and stick to their plans and their schedule. But at the very least, the event is expected to include a heightened focus on security and a grim recognition of how stunningly close the presumptive Republican nominee came to losing his life.

Here’s what to watch for on the first day of the Republican National Convention:

HOW THE ATTACK IMPACTS THE TONE OF SPEECHES

The shooting has drawn bipartisan condemnation and bipartisan calls for unity. But it has also led to some Republicans blaming President Joe Biden, pointing to his words casting Trump as a threat to democracy. Some have demanded that prosecutors now drop the four criminal cases Trump faces, including one in which he’s been convicted.

As elected officials, politicians and a few regular Americans address the conference, the question is which tone will prevail in the aftermath of the attack: Will it make speeches even more fiery or will calls for calm prevail?

A SHOW OF GOP UNITY

Even before the attempt on Trump’s life Saturday, Republicans were largely firmly aligned with him and planned to show party unity at the convention. But that message is expected to be even more pronounced as the former president and GOP officials look to project resolve, with Trump saying Sunday that “it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win.”

The show of unity is a departure from the party’s recent history. In 2016, the first time Republicans formally crowned Trump as their nominee, the opening day of their convention was marked by angry dissent from anti-Trump delegates on the floor of the event. After his turbulent presidency concluded with an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol by his supporters, his political standing seemed weaker than ever when he launched his third White House campaign in 2022. But Trump flattened a field of GOP challengers and his legal problems have galvanized his supporters.

RUNNING MATE

Trump has still not named a running mate, and an announcement could come as soon as Monday. His top three contenders, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, are scheduled to speak to Republican delegates at some point this week, according to event organizers. And per tradition, the person Trump selects as his vice-presidential running mate is expected to give an address Wednesday night.

Trump has compared his search for a new vice president to his former reality TV show, “The Apprentice,” leading to speculation that the showman might opt for an onstage reveal of his pick at the convention. He could also make the announcement on social media, as he did in 2016 when he selected Mike Pence to be his running mate.

GREATER FOCUS ON HARRIS AS QUESTIONS SURROUND BIDEN

Before the shooting, the 2024 race was rocked by upheaval among Democrats after Biden's shaky debate performance last month led members of his party to start staging a public intervention calling for him to bow out as their nominee and raising the real possibility that Trump may be running against someone else.

Republicans have long sought to paint Biden as incompetent, but since Biden’s campaign has become seriously questioned, Trump and the GOP have stepped up their criticisms of Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s expected to continue as the convention kicks off, with more references to “the Biden-Harris administration.”

ECONOMIC POLICIES TO GET SPOTLIGHT

The theme for Monday’s program is “Make America Wealthy Once Again,” according to Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee. Focusing on economics not only makes sense because it can be a key issue for swing voters, but it’s an area where Trump might have an edge over Biden when it comes to voter views on job creation and cost of living.

Look for Republicans to focus on Trump’s proposals to impose higher tariffs on foreign-made goods along with extending the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017, which expire next year. Biden wants to extend the middle-class tax cuts while raising taxes on highly profitable companies and the richest Americans.

Expect Republicans to also focus on inflation, even though the worst price spike in four decades is steadily fading, according to a new report from the Labor Department. Biden claims Trump's tariffs would only aggravate the problem.

APPEAL BEYOND THE BASE TO MODERATES

As Trump tries to win over undecided and middle-of-the-road voters, one of the key questions is to what degree he’ll feature some of the far-right characters in his orbit, his lies about his loss in the 2020 election, his calls for retribution against his opponents and his embrace of those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Key messages of Trump’s third campaign for the White House have included venting his grievances from the past election and decrying his legal problems. He has said that if he’s elected president, he expects to pardon many of those arrested or convicted for their roles in the violent siege on the Capitol and has even played a song at his rallies that he recorded with some of the jailed defendants.

Though candidates typically try to moderate their message as they move into the general election, Trump has rarely been typical — or moderate — and some of the messages he’s featured in his campaign could be jarring to the voters he’s looking to sway.

BIDEN GETS BACK TO COUNTERPROGRAMING

Biden is getting his own slice of the prime-time spotlight Monday when he appears in an interview on NBC with Lester Holt as he continues to try to reassure members of his party about his candidacy.

He canceled a planned Monday trip to Texas and his reelection campaign temporarily suspended its television ads after Saturday’s shooting. But the pause in Democratic counterprograming to the Republican convention won’t last.

After the NBC interview, he'll fly later Monday to Nevada, where he will address the NAACP convention in Las Vegas on Tuesday and do an interview with the BET network.

The president has made decrying Trump as a threat to democracy and the nation’s founding values a centerpiece of his campaign. He had to soften that message in the shooting’s immediate aftermath, but plans to use the trip to highlight what his campaign calls stark contrasts between himself and Trump.

In addition to hoping to defuse some of the GOP criticism coming from Milwaukee, the campaign hopes the trip could help Biden reclaim standing with some Democrats who are still skeptical he's up to the rigors of the campaign. Campaign Action