Morning Digest: The front line of the House battlefield is right here

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● House: Now that the deadline to run for office as a major-party candidate has passed in every state, we have a good opportunity to assess the state of the House playing field nationwide using Daily Kos Elections' calculations of the 2020 presidential election results for the districts in use this fall. The presidential result is a critical indicator of a district's potential competitiveness because American voters have become heavily polarized by party and are much less likely to split their tickets than in past decades. Because of these tendencies, House results have become tightly correlated with presidential results to a historic degree. However, that correlation isn't ironclad, and candidates from both parties still regularly win at least some districts that voted for the other party's presidential ticket. Yet, because of presidential headwinds, these "crossover" districts are frequently among the most heavily contested nationwide, and that trend is likely to continue this cycle. While Joe Biden is no longer the Democrats' standard-bearer, Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to assemble a relatively similar electoral coalition, just as Biden's map was similar to Hillary Clinton's four years earlier. Democrats need to flip four seats to gain a House majority, and with 18 Republicans representing districts that would have voted for Biden in 2020 as shown on the chart below, Harris' party has several targets. Republicans aren't just on the defensive, though, because eight Democrats sit in seats that would have supported Donald Trump as shown on the second chart. One big Democratic pickup opportunity is New York Rep. Anthony D'Esposito's 4th District on Long Island. This constituency favored Biden 57-42, and the Republican faces a tough rematch against former Hempstead Supervisor Laura Gillen following his 52-48 upset victory in what was a terrible 2022 cycle for Empire State Democrats. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jared Golden is trying to fend off Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault in the 2nd District, a seat in northern Maine that supported Trump 52-45. National Democratic and Republican groups have each reserved millions of dollars for TV ads in what will be a key battleground for control of the House. Notably, the number of crossover districts for 2024 has changed since 2022, following mid-decade redistricting in five states: This increased the number of Democratic-held Trump districts by three and Republican-held Biden districts by one. In North Carolina, Republicans' new extreme gerrymander made three Biden districts safely Republican, while Voting Rights Act lawsuits turned one Trump district blue in each of Alabama and Louisiana. These seats are virtually certain to flip, and all five incumbents—three Democrats and two Republicans—either retired or are running in a different election. New maps in Georgia and New York had much more limited partisan effects. However, one seat in New York―GOP Rep. Nick LaLota's 1st District on Long Island―flipped from a tight Biden win to a narrow Trump victory. Of course, crossover districts aren't the only races that will be fiercely contested this fall, and both parties are trying to flip seats that the other party's presidential ticket previously carried. One example is California's 41st District, which is based in the Riverside area and Palm Springs. Trump prevailed 50-49 here, but former federal prosecutor Will Rollins is waging a rematch against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert after losing by just 52-48 last cycle, in an otherwise disastrous election for California Democrats. On the other hand, Biden won Pennsylvania's 7th District in the Lehigh Valley by 50-49, and national Republicans have made large ad reservations that could support nominee state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie against Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. Overall, the national map has 224 Biden seats and 211 Trump seats. Consequently, the GOP needs to win several or more districts that Trump lost last time, though Republicans are likely hoping that a stronger Trump performance this year could carry them across the finish line in some of these districts. House ● AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom's team tells the Alaska Beacon's Barbara Norton that she would not drop out of the general election if she finishes behind her fellow Republican, businessman Nick Begich, in the Aug. 20 top-four primary. Begich's campaign, by contrast, reiterated that he intends to exit the race if Dahlstrom outpaces him next month. Both candidates are campaigning against Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's lone House seat, and Begich has argued that his party would suffer if he and Dahlstrom continued to compete against one another through the fall. "For those who are not a fa

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Jul 23, 2024 - 18:30
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Morning Digest: The front line of the House battlefield is right here

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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Leading Off

● House: Now that the deadline to run for office as a major-party candidate has passed in every state, we have a good opportunity to assess the state of the House playing field nationwide using Daily Kos Elections' calculations of the 2020 presidential election results for the districts in use this fall.

The presidential result is a critical indicator of a district's potential competitiveness because American voters have become heavily polarized by party and are much less likely to split their tickets than in past decades. Because of these tendencies, House results have become tightly correlated with presidential results to a historic degree.

However, that correlation isn't ironclad, and candidates from both parties still regularly win at least some districts that voted for the other party's presidential ticket. Yet, because of presidential headwinds, these "crossover" districts are frequently among the most heavily contested nationwide, and that trend is likely to continue this cycle.

While Joe Biden is no longer the Democrats' standard-bearer, Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to assemble a relatively similar electoral coalition, just as Biden's map was similar to Hillary Clinton's four years earlier.

Democrats need to flip four seats to gain a House majority, and with 18 Republicans representing districts that would have voted for Biden in 2020 as shown on the chart below, Harris' party has several targets.

Republicans aren't just on the defensive, though, because eight Democrats sit in seats that would have supported Donald Trump as shown on the second chart.

One big Democratic pickup opportunity is New York Rep. Anthony D'Esposito's 4th District on Long Island. This constituency favored Biden 57-42, and the Republican faces a tough rematch against former Hempstead Supervisor Laura Gillen following his 52-48 upset victory in what was a terrible 2022 cycle for Empire State Democrats.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Jared Golden is trying to fend off Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault in the 2nd District, a seat in northern Maine that supported Trump 52-45. National Democratic and Republican groups have each reserved millions of dollars for TV ads in what will be a key battleground for control of the House.

Notably, the number of crossover districts for 2024 has changed since 2022, following mid-decade redistricting in five states: This increased the number of Democratic-held Trump districts by three and Republican-held Biden districts by one.

In North Carolina, Republicans' new extreme gerrymander made three Biden districts safely Republican, while Voting Rights Act lawsuits turned one Trump district blue in each of Alabama and Louisiana. These seats are virtually certain to flip, and all five incumbents—three Democrats and two Republicans—either retired or are running in a different election.

New maps in Georgia and New York had much more limited partisan effects. However, one seat in New York―GOP Rep. Nick LaLota's 1st District on Long Island―flipped from a tight Biden win to a narrow Trump victory.

Of course, crossover districts aren't the only races that will be fiercely contested this fall, and both parties are trying to flip seats that the other party's presidential ticket previously carried.

One example is California's 41st District, which is based in the Riverside area and Palm Springs. Trump prevailed 50-49 here, but former federal prosecutor Will Rollins is waging a rematch against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert after losing by just 52-48 last cycle, in an otherwise disastrous election for California Democrats. On the other hand, Biden won Pennsylvania's 7th District in the Lehigh Valley by 50-49, and national Republicans have made large ad reservations that could support nominee state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie against Democratic Rep. Susan Wild.

Overall, the national map has 224 Biden seats and 211 Trump seats. Consequently, the GOP needs to win several or more districts that Trump lost last time, though Republicans are likely hoping that a stronger Trump performance this year could carry them across the finish line in some of these districts.

House

● AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom's team tells the Alaska Beacon's Barbara Norton that she would not drop out of the general election if she finishes behind her fellow Republican, businessman Nick Begich, in the Aug. 20 top-four primary. Begich's campaign, by contrast, reiterated that he intends to exit the race if Dahlstrom outpaces him next month.

Both candidates are campaigning against Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's lone House seat, and Begich has argued that his party would suffer if he and Dahlstrom continued to compete against one another through the fall. "For those who are not a fan of ranked-choice voting—and I consider myself one of those people—we can self-impose a primary among the Republicans, if we make that commitment," he argued to Alaska Public Media back in April.

But while national Republicans share Begich's desire to avoid infighting, they very much disagree that he'd be the party's strongest candidate. Donald Trump and the Congressional Leadership Fund both support Dahlstrom over Begich, who unsuccessfully sought this seat in both the 2022 special election and during the subsequent campaign for a full term. Trump also bashed Begich for not dropping out and backing former Gov. Sarah Palin during either of those prior campaigns, which he argued "caused the Republicans to lose this important seat to Mary Peltola."

Peltola, who has no serious intraparty opposition, ended June with a hefty $3.4 million stockpiled to defend a seat that favored Trump 53-43 in 2020. Dahlstrom, by contrast, was far behind, with $605,000 in the bank, compared with $235,000 for Begich. The CLF and its allies at the NRCC, though, have booked over $7.3 million in ad time to attack Peltola.

● NV-02: While Rep. Greg Amodei doesn't have a Democratic opponent this fall, the only Republican in Nevada's congressional delegation will face a wealthy independent who has already demonstrated that he's willing to tap into his personal resources.

Investor Greg Kidd, who was a registered Republican until he filed to run in May, has self-funded a total of $1.5 million this year. Amodei and Kidd, who didn't report raising a single cent from donors through June, each ended the second quarter with about $440,000 in the bank. Two minor-party candidates are also running.

Kidd, who was an early investor in both Square and Twitter (now X), told News 4 in May that he supports abortion rights, and he also faulted Amodei for being too partisan. "The CHIPS Act, the Inflation Act, both provided money to Nevada," Kidd argued. "Amodei has been voting against that. He's not voting for things that are for Nevada."

Amodei, though, will be tough to dislodge in this longtime conservative stronghold. The 2nd District, a northern Nevada constituency that includes Reno, favored Donald Trump 54-43 in 2020.

● VA-05: Virginia election officials said last week that Aug. 1 will be the day they'll begin recounting the ballots from the June 18 Republican primary for Virginia's 5th District. State Sen. John McGuire outpaced Rep. Bob Good 50.3-49.7―a margin of 374 votes, last month, but the incumbent requested a recount. ABC 13 says that Good would need to pay for the roughly $97,000 process unless the result changes.

● House: The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC announced another $12 million in summertime TV ad bookings on Monday, which we've added to our database that tracks reservations made by the four largest groups involved in House races. The reservations were made by HMP's nonprofit affiliate, House Majority Forward, which also said it would spend $4.5 million on digital advertising and direct mail.

In April, HMP kicked off ad reservation season when it revealed it had booked $146 million in TV time for the general election. House Majority Forward's new reservations are all in media markets that HMP previously said it would focus on, with the largest single sum, $2.4 million, devoted to the expensive New York City market.

What's perhaps most notable about these reservations is that we're hearing about them at all. In the past, the nonprofit arms of major super PACs have typically not been as forthcoming as their parent organizations. HMP's Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, also has a nonprofit wing called the American Action Network, but AAN does not appear to have divulged its 2024 advertising plans on a market-by-market basis.

Ballot Measures

● MT Ballot: Election officials in Montana's 56 counties have verified that a proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, as well as two amendments to change the state's electoral system, have each turned in the requisite number of signatures needed to make the fall ballot.

One wrinkle remains: Republican Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen is appealing a recent court ruling that held she could not disallow signatures from "inactive" voters—those who haven't voted recently and haven't responded to attempts to confirm their address but still have valid registrations on the voter rolls. However, it appears that all three campaigns submitted more than enough signatures to overcome this hurdle even if Jacobsen were to ultimately prevail.

The abortion rights amendment, which is identified as Constitutional Initiative 128, would enshrine the right to an abortion through fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. Abortion is protected in Montana thanks to a 1999 state Supreme Court decision, but conservative justices could revisit that long-standing precedent if they win a majority this fall.

Election reformers looking to bring the top-four primary to the state, meanwhile, are working to pass two different amendments. Constitutional Initiative 126 would replace Montana's partisan primaries with a top-four setup. However, it doesn't include any rules for how the second round of voting would work, likely to avoid running afoul of the state's "single-subject" rule for ballot measures.

To fill this gap, supporters are also promoting a second amendment, Constitutional Initiative 127, to "provide that elections for certain offices must be decided by majority vote as determined as provided by law rather than by a plurality or the largest amount of the votes." Both amendments would apply to the same set of elections: those for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide posts, the legislature, "and other offices as provided by law."

Notably, though, this amendment does not require ranked-choice voting. Indeed, the GOP-led legislature banned instant-runoff voting last year, and it's not clear what method the state would use to ensure winners secure a majority of the vote if voters were to approve the amendment.

Mayors & County Leaders

● Raleigh, NC Mayor: Raleigh City Councilman Corey Branch announced Wednesday that he was dropping out of the race to succeed his fellow Democrat, retiring Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin, and would instead seek reelection.

Branch's departure came two days before the July 19 candidate filing deadline, and five contenders ultimately put their names forward to lead North Carolina's capital city. The two main candidates appear to be former state Treasurer Janet Cowell, who was once a rising star in state Democratic politics, and Terrance Ruth, a North Carolina State University professor who lost to Baldwin 47-41 in 2022.

The nonpartisan general election to replace Baldwin will take place on Nov. 5, and since there's no runoff, it takes only a plurality to win.  

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

● Johnson County, KS Sheriff: Former Johnson County Sheriff Frank Denning announced last week that he was endorsing former undersheriff Doug Bedford's Aug. 6 Republican primary bid against incumbent Calvin Hayden, a move the Kansas City Star's Jonathan Shorman characterized as "a stunning vote of no-confidence from Hayden’s immediate predecessor."

Denning, who served from 2005 to 2017, did not directly mention Hayden, who has made a name for himself by spreading election conspiracy theories. However, Denning made his discontent with the status quo known in a letter declaring, "Doug Bedford will answer to all the people of Johnson County and restore the faith in the office of Sheriff. The citizens of Johnson County will be represented by a Sheriff, who is professional and will carry out the duties of the office."

Whoever wins the GOP nod will take on Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson, who has no opposition in the Democratic primary. Joe Biden carried this populous suburban Kansas City community 53-45 in 2020, a result that made him the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Johnson County since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

Poll Pile

Following Joe Biden's departure from the presidential race on Sunday, we will only be including presidential toplines for polls that began on or after July 22.

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