Morning Digest: The downballot career of Joseph R. Biden
The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● Joe Biden: The end of President Joe Biden's reelection campaign brings with it the end of a long political career that almost never came about in the first place. As is our tradition at Daily Kos Elections, we're taking a look at Biden's rapid and surprising rise in Delaware politics that began in the early 1970s, when he went up against a pair of Republican incumbents whom almost everyone else thought were unbeatable. The First State was far from the Democratic bastion it is now back in 1970 when Biden, then a 27-year-old attorney, first sought a seat on the New Castle County Council. Richard Nixon had in fact narrowly taken Delaware's three electoral votes two years earlier by beating Democrat Hubert Humphrey 45-42; the balance went to George Wallace, the longtime segregationist who was campaigning on a third-party ticket. Democrats were in worse shape further down the ballot. Republicans held both of Delaware's U.S. Senate seats and its lone House district, and the 1968 elections had left them in control of the governorship and with large majorities in both chambers of the legislature. And Democrats didn't seem to be in any position to make gains in the foreseeable future. "There was a party, but it was not what you'd call a party," Henry Topel, who held the unenviable role of serving as party chairman, would tell Jules Witcover decades later for his book "Joe Biden: A Life of Trial and Redemption." "It was a token." It was during this bleak time that John Daniello, a member of the Democratic minority on the New Castle County Council, sought to recruit Biden to run against a Republican colleague, as he would recount to Witcover. Click here to read Jeff Singer's complete retrospective on Biden's early political career, which—after many decades—would eventually set him on the road to the White House. Senate ● MI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler announced Saturday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Michigan's open Senate seat and endorsing the frontrunner, former Rep. Mike Rogers. Pensler made his declaration at a rally with Donald Trump, who supports Rogers. Rogers' only notable remaining intra-party foe is former Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican-turned independent-turned-Libertarian-turned-Republican who has struggled to raise money for his latest effort. House ● Louisiana: Louisiana marked the end of candidate filing season for major-party candidates when its filing deadline passed on Friday. As per usual, the Pelican State's cutoff is the last in the nation for anyone running for Congress or state office, though deadlines are sometimes later for independents. Under the state's unique system of all-party primaries, all candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot on Nov. 5, and contenders need to win a majority of the vote to prevail. (This does not apply to the presidential race.) In races where no one exceeds 50%, the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to a Dec. 7 runoff. The state has a list of contenders here. There were no notable last-minute developments in any of Louisiana's six congressional contests. Democratic state Sen. Cleo Fields remains poised to return to the House after a 28-year absence in the revamped 6th District, which is now a majority-Black constituency that would have backed Joe Biden 59-39 in 2020. Fields faces three little-known Democrats in the race to succeed GOP Rep. Garret Graves, who announced his retirement last month after finally concluding that he didn't have a path to victory in any district. The one Republican who stepped up to defend Graves' seat is former state Sen. Elbert Guillory, who attracted national attention a decade ago for his unsuccessful quest to exempt "chicken boxing" from the state's cockfighting ban. Guillory, a former Democrat whose 2013 party switch made him the Louisiana GOP's first Black state senator since Reconstruction, took only single-digit support in his three subsequent campaigns as a Republican. Meanwhile, Louisiana's five other House incumbents all appear secure for another term. Rep. Troy Carter, who is currently the only Democrat in the delegation, did attract an intra-party challenge in May in the New Orleans-based 2nd District from progressive activist Devin Davis. Davis, however, raised very little during his opening fundraising quarter. P.S. This is the last cycle that Louisiana's all-party primaries will be used in congressional races. GOP Gov. Jeff Landry signed a bill in January requiring partisan primaries for U.S. House and Senate races and several other posts starting in 2026. However, the state's unique all-party primary will still be used for most other races, including for the governorship and state legislature. ● MO-03: Former s
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The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● Joe Biden: The end of President Joe Biden's reelection campaign brings with it the end of a long political career that almost never came about in the first place. As is our tradition at Daily Kos Elections, we're taking a look at Biden's rapid and surprising rise in Delaware politics that began in the early 1970s, when he went up against a pair of Republican incumbents whom almost everyone else thought were unbeatable.
The First State was far from the Democratic bastion it is now back in 1970 when Biden, then a 27-year-old attorney, first sought a seat on the New Castle County Council. Richard Nixon had in fact narrowly taken Delaware's three electoral votes two years earlier by beating Democrat Hubert Humphrey 45-42; the balance went to George Wallace, the longtime segregationist who was campaigning on a third-party ticket.
Democrats were in worse shape further down the ballot. Republicans held both of Delaware's U.S. Senate seats and its lone House district, and the 1968 elections had left them in control of the governorship and with large majorities in both chambers of the legislature. And Democrats didn't seem to be in any position to make gains in the foreseeable future.
"There was a party, but it was not what you'd call a party," Henry Topel, who held the unenviable role of serving as party chairman, would tell Jules Witcover decades later for his book "Joe Biden: A Life of Trial and Redemption." "It was a token."
It was during this bleak time that John Daniello, a member of the Democratic minority on the New Castle County Council, sought to recruit Biden to run against a Republican colleague, as he would recount to Witcover.
Senate
● MI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler announced Saturday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Michigan's open Senate seat and endorsing the frontrunner, former Rep. Mike Rogers. Pensler made his declaration at a rally with Donald Trump, who supports Rogers.
Rogers' only notable remaining intra-party foe is former Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican-turned independent-turned-Libertarian-turned-Republican who has struggled to raise money for his latest effort.
House
● Louisiana: Louisiana marked the end of candidate filing season for major-party candidates when its filing deadline passed on Friday. As per usual, the Pelican State's cutoff is the last in the nation for anyone running for Congress or state office, though deadlines are sometimes later for independents.
Under the state's unique system of all-party primaries, all candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot on Nov. 5, and contenders need to win a majority of the vote to prevail. (This does not apply to the presidential race.) In races where no one exceeds 50%, the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to a Dec. 7 runoff. The state has a list of contenders here.
There were no notable last-minute developments in any of Louisiana's six congressional contests. Democratic state Sen. Cleo Fields remains poised to return to the House after a 28-year absence in the revamped 6th District, which is now a majority-Black constituency that would have backed Joe Biden 59-39 in 2020. Fields faces three little-known Democrats in the race to succeed GOP Rep. Garret Graves, who announced his retirement last month after finally concluding that he didn't have a path to victory in any district.
The one Republican who stepped up to defend Graves' seat is former state Sen. Elbert Guillory, who attracted national attention a decade ago for his unsuccessful quest to exempt "chicken boxing" from the state's cockfighting ban. Guillory, a former Democrat whose 2013 party switch made him the Louisiana GOP's first Black state senator since Reconstruction, took only single-digit support in his three subsequent campaigns as a Republican.
Meanwhile, Louisiana's five other House incumbents all appear secure for another term. Rep. Troy Carter, who is currently the only Democrat in the delegation, did attract an intra-party challenge in May in the New Orleans-based 2nd District from progressive activist Devin Davis. Davis, however, raised very little during his opening fundraising quarter.
P.S. This is the last cycle that Louisiana's all-party primaries will be used in congressional races. GOP Gov. Jeff Landry signed a bill in January requiring partisan primaries for U.S. House and Senate races and several other posts starting in 2026. However, the state's unique all-party primary will still be used for most other races, including for the governorship and state legislature.
● MO-03: Former state Sen. Bob Onder has publicized an internal poll from Remington Research Group that gives him a 34-14 lead over Kurt Schaefer, who is also a former state senator, in the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Missouri's conservative 3rd District.
A 35% plurality of respondents are undecided, while the balance is split between five minor candidates. This survey from Onder, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, is the first poll we've seen of this contest. It was first shared publicly by the Missouri Scout, a local political tip sheet.
Influential GOP donors, however, are spending millions to make sure that Onder, who was a member of the predecessor to the state legislature's Freedom Caucus, won't be joining the eponymous national group. Outside groups have deployed more than $2.5 million attacking Onder and promoting Schaffer, who has the backing of retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer.
About half of this amount comes from Conservatives for American Excellence, a group that has devoted itself to stopping hard-line candidates who could cause headaches for the House GOP leadership. The other major pro-Schaefer organization is Missouri Conservatives for Congress PAC, which is funded in part by local GOP megadonor Rex Sinquefield. Luetkemeyer, who is no fan of either Onder or the Freedom Caucus, has also used some of his leftover campaign cash to finance the group.
Onder isn't being left to fend for himself, though, because the far-right Club for Growth and its affiliate, Make DC Listen, have spent $1.2 million on his behalf. The Club previously backed Onder in his 2008 primary against Luetkemeyer for the now-defunct 9th District, a bitter race that Luetkemeyer won 40-29.
● NE-02, NE-Sen-A: While Republican Sen. Deb Fischer's new poll from Torchlight Strategies shows her easily winning reelection statewide, the memo finds GOP Rep. Don Bacon with a small 46-43 lead in his rematch against Democratic state Rep. Tony Vargas in the Omaha-based 2nd District.
The survey, which was taken before Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid on Sunday, had Biden and Donald Trump deadlocked at 42 apiece in the 2nd, with 12% opting for an unnamed third option and the remaining 4% undecided. Biden took the 2nd District 52-46 in 2020, while Bacon held off Vargas 51-49 two years later.
This is the first poll we've seen since the winter of what will be another expensive battle between Bacon and Vargas. The Democrat ended June with a small $2.5 million to $2.2 million cash advantage; major GOP outside groups have also reserved $4 million in the Omaha media market, compared with $3.1 million from their Democratic counterparts.
Fischer's survey, however, argues she has no such worries as she seeks a third term. Torchlight finds the senator with a 50-24 lead over Dan Osborn, a labor leader who is running as an independent, with another 9% going to Kerry Eddy of the Legal Marijuana NOW Party. There is no Democrat on the ballot for this contest, though it remains to be seen whether Democrats will field a write-in option. The firm also showed Trump prevailing 52-33 statewide.
● NJ-10: Democratic county leaders overwhelmingly picked Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver on Thursday to replace the late Rep. Don Payne as the party's nominee for a full term in the next Congress. The party convention took place two days after McIver scored a 47-14 victory over Linden Mayor Derek Armstead in a special primary.
McIver should have no trouble winning the Sept. 18 general election for the remaining months of Payne's term representing the 10th District, which Joe Biden carried 81-19 in 2020, or in the subsequent November contest. The New Jersey Globe notes that McIver's victory would mean that, for the first time ever, three women would represent New Jersey in Congress. The other two are Democratic Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Bonnie Watson Coleman.
● TX-18: Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee died Friday at the age of 74, just weeks after she announced she was being treated for pancreatic cancer. Jackson Lee spent almost 30 years representing Texas' 18th District, a safely Democratic constituency that includes parts of central and northern Houston, and she won renomination for a 16th term following a competitive primary back in March.
The Houston Chronicle's Taylor Goldenstein writes that the executive committee of the Harris County Democratic Party has until Aug. 26 to select a new general election nominee. If leaders are unable to pick someone, the Texas Democratic Party would choose a candidate, with an Aug. 28 deadline.
It remains to be seen whether Republican Gov. Greg Abbott will call a special election for the remainder of Jackson Lee's current term, or if the 18th District will remain vacant until the start of the 119th Congress in January. Goldenstein notes that there's no deadline for Abbott to make a decision.
Jackson Lee's eventual successor will replace a well-known liberal congresswoman who, despite several controversies and a major loss at the ballot box last year, proved to be popular with her constituents.
Poll Pile
- MI-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Clean and Prosperous America PAC: Elissa Slotkin (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 38
- PA-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Clean and Prosperous America PAC: Bob Casey (D-inc): 50, Dave McCormick (R): 39
Ad Roundup
- WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) - anti-Eric Hovde (R)
- WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D)
- MO-01: Cori Bush (D-inc) - anti-Wesley Bell (D)
- WI-03: Katrina Shankland (D)
