Morning Digest: Former GOP frontrunner hopes last-second bailout will save his bid for governor

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● MO-Gov: AdImpact reports that a little-known super PAC called Stand for US PAC has dropped $3.1 million on ads to help state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary for governor, an investment that the former front-runner is hoping will help him revive his fortunes when it matters most. The secretary of state could very much use the money because recent surveys, including one released over the weekend, find Ashcroft and Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe locked in a tight battle. This poll for the political tip-sheet Missouri Scout from the GOP firm Battleground Connect shows the two statewide elected officials deadlocked 26-26, with state Sen. Bill Eigel in third with 17%. The results are almost identical to a poll conducted days earlier for the Scout by another Republican pollster, Remington Research Group. Ashcroft, who is a member of one of Missouri's most prominent political families, spent most of the race with a wide lead against his two main intraparty rivals. The secretary of state, however, has lost altitude as he's struggled to compete financially against the well-funded Kehoe, and both he and his affiliated committee had little money left when the most recent reports were finalized on July 25. But Stand for US, which the Missouri Independent's Rudi Keller says doesn't need to disclose its donors until after the primary, is coming to the onetime favorite's rescue. In a separate piece for the site, Jeff Smith writes that this late offensive means that Ashcroft's side "for the first time [will] approach parity with Kehoe’s media buy for the final week." Kehoe, who has the backing of termed-out Gov. Mike Parson, is still hoping that his longtime dominance of the airwaves will pay off. AdImpact says that, even with Stand for US' late intervention the lieutenant governor and his allies have outspent Ashcroft's side $11.2 million to $6.5 million, with another $4.4 million going to support Eigel. Kehoe began airing ads against Ashcroft months ago, including a commercial depicting Chinese-speaking cows branded with a hammer and sickle accusing Ashcroft of having "testified in support of a law allowing the Chinese Communist Party to buy land here in Missouri," but he's also been attacking Eigel as of late. Kehoe declares in a new ad that the state senator "acts like a clown" and that "President Trump told him to stop misleading voters." (Donald Trump's campaign last year told Eigel's PAC to "cease and desist" sending out fundraising emails that implied donations would go to Trump.) Kehoe, though, also used that spot to remind viewers that Ashcroft expressed skepticism that veterans should receive special benefits. Kehoe goes on to inform viewers that he has Trump's endorsement―though he doesn't mention that Ashcroft and Eigel do as well. Smith, though, says that many ads from Kehoe's side are devoted to attacking just one opponent or the other depending on where in the state Ashcroft and Eigel are performing well. Smith explains that allies of the lieutenant governor, who has acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades," believe his brand of conservatism is unlikely to appeal to enough primary voters to get him anywhere close to a majority. That's fine as long as Ashcroft, who has presented himself as an ardent abortion-rights foe, and Eigel, who has pledged to immolate books with his flamethrower, are competing for a similar bloc of voters. Kehoe, though, would be in trouble if one of his rivals collapses and the other hoovers up their supporters, so it's in his best interest to make sure this doesn't happen. Stand for US, though, is betting that Eigel doesn't need to be taken down for Ashcroft to win. The super PAC's commercials are attacking Kehoe as part of a corrupt status quo, with the narrator proclaiming that "the Parson-Kehoe Administration is adding fuel to the fire, caving to Jefferson City lobbyists and approving legislation subsidizing health care for illegals." The commercial also touts that Ashcroft has Trump's endorsement, though unsurprisingly, it doesn't mention that the GOP's supreme master refused to pick a favorite here. Kehoe's legal team, which is seeking to have the ad taken off the air, is arguing, "The assertion that there is a ‘Parson-Kehoe administration’ is false … All the actions referred to in the ad were solely and exclusively taken by Governor Parson and not one action was taken by Lt. Gov. Kehoe." Stand for US responded by gloating that Kehoe is trying to separate himself from his top supporter. Eigel, for his part, generated attention last month with a racist ad where he pledged to jail and deport undocumented immigrants, much to the increasing consternation of a Latino actor tasked with

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Aug 5, 2024 - 18:30
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Morning Digest: Former GOP frontrunner hopes last-second bailout will save his bid for governor

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● MO-Gov: AdImpact reports that a little-known super PAC called Stand for US PAC has dropped $3.1 million on ads to help state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary for governor, an investment that the former front-runner is hoping will help him revive his fortunes when it matters most.

The secretary of state could very much use the money because recent surveys, including one released over the weekend, find Ashcroft and Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe locked in a tight battle. This poll for the political tip-sheet Missouri Scout from the GOP firm Battleground Connect shows the two statewide elected officials deadlocked 26-26, with state Sen. Bill Eigel in third with 17%. The results are almost identical to a poll conducted days earlier for the Scout by another Republican pollster, Remington Research Group.

Ashcroft, who is a member of one of Missouri's most prominent political families, spent most of the race with a wide lead against his two main intraparty rivals. The secretary of state, however, has lost altitude as he's struggled to compete financially against the well-funded Kehoe, and both he and his affiliated committee had little money left when the most recent reports were finalized on July 25.

But Stand for US, which the Missouri Independent's Rudi Keller says doesn't need to disclose its donors until after the primary, is coming to the onetime favorite's rescue. In a separate piece for the site, Jeff Smith writes that this late offensive means that Ashcroft's side "for the first time [will] approach parity with Kehoe’s media buy for the final week."

Kehoe, who has the backing of termed-out Gov. Mike Parson, is still hoping that his longtime dominance of the airwaves will pay off. AdImpact says that, even with Stand for US' late intervention the lieutenant governor and his allies have outspent Ashcroft's side $11.2 million to $6.5 million, with another $4.4 million going to support Eigel.

Kehoe began airing ads against Ashcroft months ago, including a commercial depicting Chinese-speaking cows branded with a hammer and sickle accusing Ashcroft of having "testified in support of a law allowing the Chinese Communist Party to buy land here in Missouri," but he's also been attacking Eigel as of late.

Kehoe declares in a new ad that the state senator "acts like a clown" and that "President Trump told him to stop misleading voters." (Donald Trump's campaign last year told Eigel's PAC to "cease and desist" sending out fundraising emails that implied donations would go to Trump.) Kehoe, though, also used that spot to remind viewers that Ashcroft expressed skepticism that veterans should receive special benefits. Kehoe goes on to inform viewers that he has Trump's endorsement―though he doesn't mention that Ashcroft and Eigel do as well.

Smith, though, says that many ads from Kehoe's side are devoted to attacking just one opponent or the other depending on where in the state Ashcroft and Eigel are performing well. Smith explains that allies of the lieutenant governor, who has acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades," believe his brand of conservatism is unlikely to appeal to enough primary voters to get him anywhere close to a majority.

That's fine as long as Ashcroft, who has presented himself as an ardent abortion-rights foe, and Eigel, who has pledged to immolate books with his flamethrower, are competing for a similar bloc of voters. Kehoe, though, would be in trouble if one of his rivals collapses and the other hoovers up their supporters, so it's in his best interest to make sure this doesn't happen.

Stand for US, though, is betting that Eigel doesn't need to be taken down for Ashcroft to win. The super PAC's commercials are attacking Kehoe as part of a corrupt status quo, with the narrator proclaiming that "the Parson-Kehoe Administration is adding fuel to the fire, caving to Jefferson City lobbyists and approving legislation subsidizing health care for illegals." The commercial also touts that Ashcroft has Trump's endorsement, though unsurprisingly, it doesn't mention that the GOP's supreme master refused to pick a favorite here.

Kehoe's legal team, which is seeking to have the ad taken off the air, is arguing, "The assertion that there is a ‘Parson-Kehoe administration’ is false … All the actions referred to in the ad were solely and exclusively taken by Governor Parson and not one action was taken by Lt. Gov. Kehoe." Stand for US responded by gloating that Kehoe is trying to separate himself from his top supporter.

Eigel, for his part, generated attention last month with a racist ad where he pledged to jail and deport undocumented immigrants, much to the increasing consternation of a Latino actor tasked with translating that message into Spanish. He's since then unveiled a spot attacking Kehoe―but not Ashcroft―and his "tax-hiking, China-loving, soft-on-immigration RINO record." And wouldn't you know it, Eigel is also running a commercial that touts how he's the candidate "endorsed by Trump."

Governors

● NC-Gov: Following months of attacks over his support for a total ban on abortion, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has launched a commercial purporting to address the issue by speaking directly to the camera alongside his wife. Robinson acknowledges that the couple got an abortion three decades ago, claiming it's why he "stands by our current law" that he contends allows abortion for up to 12 weeks with exceptions for the "life of the mother, incest, and rape."

Robinson has long been open about his extreme position on the issue, previously comparing abortion to "genocide" and calling it murder even if the woman was just "24 hours pregnant." During his successful run for lieutenant governor four years ago, he declared, "For me, there is no compromise on abortion. It makes no difference to me why or how that child ended up in that womb."

This year, he's tried to avoid even uttering the word abortion, saying he prefers to talk about "life" instead of the "a-word." But during a January interview with anti-abortion movement leader Tony Perkins, Robinson explained, "[L]ots of people seem to get confused on that. They think that I've changed my position. I have not changed my position, I've just changed what I'm saying."

Robinson has more explicitly espoused hardline views on abortion this year, too. After Republican legislators passed a 12-week ban last year that put onerous restrictions on access even before 12 weeks, Robinson said at February event, "We’ve got it down to 12 weeks. The next goal is to get it down to 6, and then just keep moving from there ..."

Robinson's latest ad comes after Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and his supporters have been hammering him with ads using his own words. In one spot, Robinson says he would "pass a bill saying you can't have an abortion in North Carolina for any reason." A 2019 clip that has been aired heavily since June shows Robinson excoriating women by claiming, "Abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers. It is about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down."

House

● AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola has become the first Democratic congressional candidate to pick up an endorsement from the NRA since 2020, when it supported Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson's unsuccessful reelection bid.

● FL-08: Florida Politics has obtained a Spry Strategies internal poll for former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos that shows him cruising to a 56-6 lead over his nearest opponent, businessman John Hearton, in the Aug. 20 Republican primary for this safely red open seat. Haridopolos is in this favorable position because Rep. Bill Posey announced his retirement after candidate filing closed in April when it was too late for anyone else to run.  

● NE-02: Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas has publicized a Global Strategy Group internal poll that found him beating GOP Rep. Don Bacon 46-44, though the survey was conducted in late June and overlapped with Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance. The only other recent poll anyone has released here was a Torchlight Strategies internal from July 8-11 for Republican Sen. Deb Fischer that showed her ticketmate holding off Vargas 46-43 in a district that Biden won 52-46 in 2020.

● PA-07: Politico relays that a Tarrance Group internal for the NRCC and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie shows the Republican nominee trailing 47-45 against Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. While the July 21-24 survey also included a matchup between Trump and Kamala Harris, that period covered the day that Biden dropped out, before Harris became the presumptive nominee. Biden won this district 50-49 in 2020.

● TX-18: Several Houston Democrats on Friday announced their campaigns to succeed the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, whose funeral took place the previous day, in this safely blue seat. The new arrivals include:

  • Former City Council Member Dwight Boykins
  • Former City Council Member Amanda Edwards
  • State Rep. Christina Morales
  • City Council Member Letitia Plummer
  • Harris County Democratic Party official Corisha Rogers
  • Former Mayor Sylvester Turner

Another Democrat, state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, announced he was in last month.

It will be up to the leaders of the Harris County Democratic Party to replace Jackson Lee, who won the March primary by beating Edwards, on the general election ballot. The gathering has not yet been scheduled, though party head Mike Doyle has said it will likely take place on Aug. 15 or Aug. 17. It's also not clear when the candidate filing deadline will be, though a candidate forum is scheduled for Aug. 10.

The field may still expand, though one prospective candidate, state Rep. Jolanda Jones, took herself out of contention by endorsing Turner. The former mayor also has the support of Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who is the county's chief executive, and Rep. Lizzie Fletcher of the nearby 7th District.

GOP Gov. Greg Abbott also announced Friday that the special election for the remainder of Jackson Lee's term would take place on Nov. 5, the same day as the contest for a full two-year term.

Attorneys General

● MO-AG: The GOP firm Battleground Connect’s late July poll for the Missouri Scout shows appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey leading Trump attorney Will Scharf 41-30 in Tuesday’s GOP primary. Every released poll has shown the attorney general ahead, though they disagree on how large his advantage is. Donald Trump, for his part, issued a dual endorsement on Wednesday.

Stand for US PAC, meanwhile, is also airing ads to help appointed Bailey, and its efforts have helped the incumbent narrow what was once an intimidating financial gap. AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies, though, have still outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on ads.

Ballot Measures

● CO Ballot: Supporters of a ballot initiative to adopt a top-four primary say they have submitted 213,000 voter signatures to qualify for November's ballot. This statutory measure needs roughly 124,000 valid signatures, a threshold it appears likely to meet.

However, part of a bipartisan law passed earlier this year could prohibit ranked-choice voting in federal and state elections until certain conditions have been met, including its adoption in local elections in counties with certain demographic characteristics. Shortly after that law's passage, though, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis claimed he would "take prompt and good faith actions" to implement the proposal if voters approve it, and bipartisan legislative leaders expressed similar views.

If this ballot measures qualifies and wins majority approval in November, the proposal would abolish party primaries for Congress and state-level offices. (Presidential contests would be unaffected.) Instead, all candidates would run on a single ballot in the first round "primary," and the top four finishers regardless of party would advance to a general election using ranked-choice voting.

The reform effort has largely been led by wealthy former healthcare CEO Kent Thiry, who previously considered running for governor as a Republican in 2018. Thiry has spent big on successful ballot initiatives that he's claimed would empower centrist voters, including creating an independent redistricting commission and opening party primaries to unaffiliated voters.

However, Thiry may have another motive this time: Should his proposal be adopted, it could allow him to run for governor on a center-right platform and avoid a Republican primary dominated by far-right voters.

● Washington, D.C. Ballot: Election officials in the nation's capital have certified that a ballot initiative to adopt instant-runoff voting and let independents vote in party primaries beginning in 2026 will go before voters this November. However, the D.C. Council, which has 11 Democrats and two independents, would have to approve funding before it could be implemented.

Currently, only voters registered with a party may participate in that party's primary, and winning a plurality in the Democratic contest is typically tantamount to victory in this dark-blue city. This new proposal mirrors the system used in Maine, where separate party primaries and generals both use instant-runoff voting, in contrast to Alaska, where candidates run on a single all-party primary ballot and the top four finishers proceed to an instant-runoff general election.

The local Democratic Party is still challenging the measure's validity in court, arguing it violates city law. However, a lower court previously ruled against the party, and Washington City Paper's Alex Koma writes that it's unclear whether the appeals court will issue a decision before November's election.

Legislatures

● TN State Legislature: While wealthy donors who want to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools had a mostly successful night in Thursday's Republican legislative primaries, they were on the losing side in a key race that turned into a proxy battle between Donald Trump and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee. Bobby Harshbarger, who is the son of U.S. Rep. Diana Harshbarger, defeated Senate Education Committee Chair Jon Lundberg 52-48. The younger Harshbarger's victory came shortly after his father, Bob Harshbarger, received a judicial summons for allegedly stealing Lundberg's signs.  

Trump backed Bobby Harshbarger last month in a Truth Social post that reminded his base that "Bobby’s mother is the GREAT Congresswoman from Tennessee, Diana Harshbarger." Trump followed up on Thursday night by crowing, "I went 10 for 10 on endorsements tonight in the Great State of Tennessee, including Bobby Harshbarger, running against a strong, long-term incumbent supported by RINO Governor Bill Lee."  Trump didn't elaborate on what else Lee had done to piss him off, though The Tennessean's Melissa Brown notes that the governor didn't take sides during the presidential primary.

School-voucher supporters, who deployed a total of $4.5 million across 16 GOP primaries and one Democratic contest, had more success elsewhere. The Club for Growth's School Freedom Fund and allied groups were on the winning side in 12 of these races, while Lundberg was one of the five defeated candidates they backed. These losers also include another incumbent, state Rep. John Ragan, and Democrat Dasha Lundy, who failed to unseat state Rep. Sam McKenzie.

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