Morning Digest: Why Trump's pick for VP could wind up undermining Trump

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● OH-Sen: Donald Trump announced on Monday that Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance would be his running mate, a move that could empower one of the few remaining Republicans who hasn't ardently embraced MAGA. That occasional skeptic is Gov. Mike DeWine, who'd choose a new senator should Vance win the vice presidency. A special election would be held in November of 2026 for the final two years of Vance's term, with the winner facing reelection in 2028 for a full six-year term. DeWine, who is himself a former U.S. senator, might have a very different idea of who should represent the Buckeye State in the upper chamber than Trump does: In March, DeWine endorsed state Sen. Matt Dolan in the nomination contest for Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat, a move that came months after Trump backed wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno. Primary voters, though, cared far more about Trump's preferences than what their governor wanted, as Moreno beat Dolan 50-33 to win the right to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. (Brown himself first won his seat in 2006 by unseating none other than DeWine.) This year's primary was by no means the first time that Trump and DeWine have come into conflict, though. While the governor was Trump's state co-chair in 2020, he infuriated his party's master shortly after Election Day by acknowledging that "Joe Biden is the president-elect." Trump responded by tweeting, "Who will be running for Governor of the Great State of Ohio? Will be hotly contested!" DeWine did indeed struggle to keep the base happy, in part because of the pandemic safety measures he promoted, but his bid for reelection wasn't anywhere as hotly contested as Trump might have hoped. DeWine won the GOP primary with just 48% of the vote in 2022, but former Rep. Jim Renacci was a distant second with 28%, and the incumbent easily secured reelection that fall. Ever since, DeWine and Trump have regularly been at odds. While almost every Republican official in the country ardently defended Trump following his conviction in his hush-money trial in New York earlier this year, all DeWine would offer the media was a "no comment." DeWine was more vocal on Monday with a statement praising Trump for making "a great choice" in a running mate. Despite his warm comments, the 77-year-old DeWine, a longtime member of what remains of the previous GOP establishment, has little in common with Vance, a 39-year-old whose 2022 Senate race was his first bid for office. The two, however, once shared a similar distaste for one prominent Republican: Donald Trump. "I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler," Vance once wrote in a private Facebook message, eight years before he joined Trump's ticket. There will doubtless be immediate speculation as to who might succeed Vance if his campaign for national office is successful, but we're not going to indulge in it. First, Vance still has to win. Second, and just as important, this is an election with a single voter, Mike DeWine. We'd love to be able to poll the race, but like all pollsters, we are struggling with our response rate. Senate ● MI-Sen: Former Rep. Mike Rogers has released an internal poll from The Tarrance Group that shows the Donald Trump-backed candidate taking 52% of the vote in the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Senate, with former Rep. Justin Amash and self-funding businessman Sandy Pensler tied for second, with 14% each. This is the first poll we've seen of this contest in more than a month. Governors ● DE-Gov: The Delaware Democratic Party endorsed Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long over the weekend, ahead of the Sept. 10 nomination contest to replace termed-out Gov. John Carney, who backed Hall-Long last year. Hall-Long faces New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer and National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara in the primary for an office that Democrats have held since the 1992 election. House ● AZ-08: Business Insider's Bryan Metzger flags that Donald Trump and his newly minted running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, are backing opposing candidates in the ultra-ugly July 30 Republican primary for Arizona's open 8th District. Vance is supporting venture capitalist Blake Masters, who, as Vance did, also benefited from massive financial aid from conservative megadonor Peter Thiel en route to victory in their respective Senate primaries. But while Vance went on to win in November—albeit after the Senate GOP's main super PAC had to spend huge sums to rescue what one conservative media figure called "the worst campaign that you could possibly run"—Masters failed to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. "This guy, he lost against Mark Kelly because he's a weirdo," a

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Jul 16, 2024 - 18:00
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Morning Digest: Why Trump's pick for VP could wind up undermining Trump

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● OH-Sen: Donald Trump announced on Monday that Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance would be his running mate, a move that could empower one of the few remaining Republicans who hasn't ardently embraced MAGA.

That occasional skeptic is Gov. Mike DeWine, who'd choose a new senator should Vance win the vice presidency. A special election would be held in November of 2026 for the final two years of Vance's term, with the winner facing reelection in 2028 for a full six-year term.

DeWine, who is himself a former U.S. senator, might have a very different idea of who should represent the Buckeye State in the upper chamber than Trump does: In March, DeWine endorsed state Sen. Matt Dolan in the nomination contest for Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat, a move that came months after Trump backed wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno.

Primary voters, though, cared far more about Trump's preferences than what their governor wanted, as Moreno beat Dolan 50-33 to win the right to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. (Brown himself first won his seat in 2006 by unseating none other than DeWine.)

This year's primary was by no means the first time that Trump and DeWine have come into conflict, though. While the governor was Trump's state co-chair in 2020, he infuriated his party's master shortly after Election Day by acknowledging that "Joe Biden is the president-elect." Trump responded by tweeting, "Who will be running for Governor of the Great State of Ohio? Will be hotly contested!"

DeWine did indeed struggle to keep the base happy, in part because of the pandemic safety measures he promoted, but his bid for reelection wasn't anywhere as hotly contested as Trump might have hoped. DeWine won the GOP primary with just 48% of the vote in 2022, but former Rep. Jim Renacci was a distant second with 28%, and the incumbent easily secured reelection that fall.

Ever since, DeWine and Trump have regularly been at odds. While almost every Republican official in the country ardently defended Trump following his conviction in his hush-money trial in New York earlier this year, all DeWine would offer the media was a "no comment." DeWine was more vocal on Monday with a statement praising Trump for making "a great choice" in a running mate.

Despite his warm comments, the 77-year-old DeWine, a longtime member of what remains of the previous GOP establishment, has little in common with Vance, a 39-year-old whose 2022 Senate race was his first bid for office. The two, however, once shared a similar distaste for one prominent Republican: Donald Trump.

"I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler," Vance once wrote in a private Facebook message, eight years before he joined Trump's ticket.

There will doubtless be immediate speculation as to who might succeed Vance if his campaign for national office is successful, but we're not going to indulge in it. First, Vance still has to win. Second, and just as important, this is an election with a single voter, Mike DeWine. We'd love to be able to poll the race, but like all pollsters, we are struggling with our response rate.

Senate

● MI-Sen: Former Rep. Mike Rogers has released an internal poll from The Tarrance Group that shows the Donald Trump-backed candidate taking 52% of the vote in the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Senate, with former Rep. Justin Amash and self-funding businessman Sandy Pensler tied for second, with 14% each. This is the first poll we've seen of this contest in more than a month.

Governors

● DE-Gov: The Delaware Democratic Party endorsed Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long over the weekend, ahead of the Sept. 10 nomination contest to replace termed-out Gov. John Carney, who backed Hall-Long last year. Hall-Long faces New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer and National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara in the primary for an office that Democrats have held since the 1992 election.

House

● AZ-08: Business Insider's Bryan Metzger flags that Donald Trump and his newly minted running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, are backing opposing candidates in the ultra-ugly July 30 Republican primary for Arizona's open 8th District.

Vance is supporting venture capitalist Blake Masters, who, as Vance did, also benefited from massive financial aid from conservative megadonor Peter Thiel en route to victory in their respective Senate primaries.

But while Vance went on to win in November—albeit after the Senate GOP's main super PAC had to spend huge sums to rescue what one conservative media figure called "the worst campaign that you could possibly run"—Masters failed to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.

"This guy, he lost against Mark Kelly because he's a weirdo," attorney Abe Hamadeh, Masters' Trump-backed opponent, recently told Metzger. "He's a weirdo and nobody likes him, quite frankly." Hamadeh lost a tight general election last cycle for state attorney general to Democrat Kris Mayes, though unlike Masters, Hamadeh refuses to accept his defeat.

● FL-01: Far-right Rep. Matt Gaetz has publicized an internal poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates that shows him easily dispatching Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock 67% to 20% in the Aug. 20 Republican primary for Florida's 1st District. This is the first survey we've seen of a contest where former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his allies want to punish Gaetz for leading the successful effort to end his speakership last year.

● MN-02: Attorney Tayler Rahm announced Saturday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 13 Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, in order to join Donald Trump's campaign in Minnesota.

Rahm's departure leaves former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who already had the support of the deep-pocketed GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, on a glide path to secure the nomination. The 2nd District, which is based in the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities, favored Joe Biden 53-45 in 2020.

P.S. This isn't the first time this cycle that the Trump campaign has lured away a congressional candidate who posed an obstacle to a contender whom the party's leadership preferred.

In March, Trump announced that former North Carolina Rep. Mark Walker would join his effort—a move that came days after Walker advanced to a primary runoff against Trump-backed lobbyist Addison McDowell. Walker's departure meant that McDowell automatically secured the GOP nomination for the state's 6th District, a constituency that the new Republican gerrymander turned safely red.

● NJ-09: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell's chief of staff announced Monday that the congressman checked into a hospital the previous night because he was "running a fever." "He is in good spirits today and awaiting test results and appreciates all well wishes," the chief of staff said in a statement. "He also told us he is actively looking for a beer if anyone can help."

Poll Pile

  • AZ-Sen: YouGov for The Times: Ruben Gallego (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 42 (46-37 Trump with third-party candidates)
  • MI-Sen: YouGov for The Times: Elissa Slotkin (D): 49, Mike Rogers (R): 40 (44-42 Trump with third-party candidates)
  • NV-Sen: YouGov for The Times: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 47, Sam Brown (R): 41 (47-42 Trump with third-party candidates)
  • PA-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Bob Casey (D-inc): 50, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (48-45 Trump in two-way; 42-40 Trump with third-party candidates included) (May: 46-44 Casey)  
  • PA-Sen: YouGov for The Times: Casey (D-inc): 51, McCormick (R): 39 (48-45 Trump with third-party candidates)
  • VA-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 53, Hung Cao (R): 36 (48-45 Biden in two-way; 40-38 Biden with third-party candidates included)
  • WI-Sen: YouGov for The Times: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (44-39 Trump with third-party candidates)

All results are from the likely voter portion of each poll.

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