Morning Digest: What happens in Minnesota if Tim Walz is elected vice president

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● MN-Gov: Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Tuesday, a decision that could usher in a new era of leadership in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would become Minnesota's new chief executive should the Harris-Walz ticket prevail in November, an ascension that would make her the first woman to lead the state. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, would also be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state. No matter what, though, this office will next be on the ballot in 2026 for a full four-year term. Walz, writes KARE 11's Jeremiah Jacobsen, would be the state's first governor to resign since 1976, when Sen. Walter Mondale's election as Jimmy Carter's vice president set off a volatile chain of events back home that proved disastrous for Democrats. Following Mondale's departure for Washington, Democratic Gov. Wendell Anderson stepped down from his post and arranged for his lieutenant governor, Rudy Perpich, to appoint him to Mondale's Senate seat. These insider dealings, however, backfired with voters, leading to the "Minnesota massacre" of 1978: Republican Rudy Boschwitz trounced Anderson in the race for Senate while Republican Al Quie unseated Perpich as governor. Walz's succession would be a far simpler affair, but there's also the matter of who would replace Flanagan in her current role. State constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain explains in Guaranteed Republics that the next person in line to become lieutenant governor is the president of the state Senate, a post that's held by Democrat Bobby Joe Champion. Should Champion succeed Flanagan, he, too, would make history, as the first Black person to serve as Minnesota's lieutenant governor. There's a potential hitch, though. The 67-member Senate is currently tied because Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is the favorite to replace retiring Rep. Dean Phillips in Congress, resigned in July so that a special election could be held simultaneously with the November general election. The rest of the Senate, however, isn't up for election again until 2026, so this one race will determine who controls the upper chamber next year. Fortunately for Democrats, Morrison's 45th District, which is based in the Minneapolis suburbs, will be tough for the GOP to flip, especially now that Walz is on the national ticket. This constituency supported Joe Biden by a 57-41 margin in 2020, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, while the Walz-Flanagan team scored an identical win two years later. Three Democrats are competing in the Aug. 13 primary; the winner will face Republican Kathleen Fowke, who lost to Morrison 56-44 in 2022. But even if Republicans were to pull off an upset in this special election at the same time Harris and Walz prevail in the Electoral College, Yeargain writes that it's possible that Walz could time his resignation to ensure that Champion still becomes lieutenant governor. That would be a far better outcome for Democrats than the last time the number two slot became vacant. When then-Gov. Mark Dayton selected Lt. Gov Tina Smith to fill Al Franken's Senate seat after he resigned in early 2018, the GOP had control of the state Senate. As a result, Republican Michelle Fischbach was elevated to the lieutenant governorship and served for a year before waging a successful bid for Congress in 2020. Looking ahead, because Minnesota does not have term limits, whoever is governor—whether that's Walz or Flanagan—will be able to run in 2026. Voters, however, have never awarded an incumbent three consecutive terms. The last to try was Perpich, who staged a successful comeback in 1982 and won two full terms. But when he sought a third straight in 1990, he lost a close and chaotic battle to Republican Arne Carlson. Republican Tim Pawlenty tried to win a third non-consecutive term in 2018, nearly a decade after retiring to prepare for what would be a doomed presidential campaign. But primary voters passed him over in favor of Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who went on to badly lose the general election to none other than Walz. Election Recaps Check out our cheat-sheet for a glance at the winner in every key race, as well as for the contests where the outcome is not yet known. ● KS-02 (R): Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt defeated businessman Shawn Tiffany 53-20 in the primary to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner. Schmidt's once-promising career took a big hit two years ago, after he narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, but the former attorney general's prominence made him the front-runner in this race even before he picked up Donal

Morning Digest: What happens in Minnesota if Tim Walz is elected vice president

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

MN-Gov: Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Tuesday, a decision that could usher in a new era of leadership in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would become Minnesota's new chief executive should the Harris-Walz ticket prevail in November, an ascension that would make her the first woman to lead the state. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, would also be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state. No matter what, though, this office will next be on the ballot in 2026 for a full four-year term.

Walz, writes KARE 11's Jeremiah Jacobsen, would be the state's first governor to resign since 1976, when Sen. Walter Mondale's election as Jimmy Carter's vice president set off a volatile chain of events back home that proved disastrous for Democrats.

Following Mondale's departure for Washington, Democratic Gov. Wendell Anderson stepped down from his post and arranged for his lieutenant governor, Rudy Perpich, to appoint him to Mondale's Senate seat. These insider dealings, however, backfired with voters, leading to the "Minnesota massacre" of 1978: Republican Rudy Boschwitz trounced Anderson in the race for Senate while Republican Al Quie unseated Perpich as governor.

Walz's succession would be a far simpler affair, but there's also the matter of who would replace Flanagan in her current role. State constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain explains in Guaranteed Republics that the next person in line to become lieutenant governor is the president of the state Senate, a post that's held by Democrat Bobby Joe Champion. Should Champion succeed Flanagan, he, too, would make history, as the first Black person to serve as Minnesota's lieutenant governor.

There's a potential hitch, though. The 67-member Senate is currently tied because Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is the favorite to replace retiring Rep. Dean Phillips in Congress, resigned in July so that a special election could be held simultaneously with the November general election. The rest of the Senate, however, isn't up for election again until 2026, so this one race will determine who controls the upper chamber next year.

Fortunately for Democrats, Morrison's 45th District, which is based in the Minneapolis suburbs, will be tough for the GOP to flip, especially now that Walz is on the national ticket. This constituency supported Joe Biden by a 57-41 margin in 2020, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, while the Walz-Flanagan team scored an identical win two years later. Three Democrats are competing in the Aug. 13 primary; the winner will face Republican Kathleen Fowke, who lost to Morrison 56-44 in 2022.

But even if Republicans were to pull off an upset in this special election at the same time Harris and Walz prevail in the Electoral College, Yeargain writes that it's possible that Walz could time his resignation to ensure that Champion still becomes lieutenant governor.

That would be a far better outcome for Democrats than the last time the number two slot became vacant. When then-Gov. Mark Dayton selected Lt. Gov Tina Smith to fill Al Franken's Senate seat after he resigned in early 2018, the GOP had control of the state Senate. As a result, Republican Michelle Fischbach was elevated to the lieutenant governorship and served for a year before waging a successful bid for Congress in 2020.

Looking ahead, because Minnesota does not have term limits, whoever is governor—whether that's Walz or Flanagan—will be able to run in 2026. Voters, however, have never awarded an incumbent three consecutive terms. The last to try was Perpich, who staged a successful comeback in 1982 and won two full terms. But when he sought a third straight in 1990, he lost a close and chaotic battle to Republican Arne Carlson.

Republican Tim Pawlenty tried to win a third non-consecutive term in 2018, nearly a decade after retiring to prepare for what would be a doomed presidential campaign. But primary voters passed him over in favor of Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who went on to badly lose the general election to none other than Walz.

Election Recaps

Check out our cheat-sheet for a glance at the winner in every key race, as well as for the contests where the outcome is not yet known.

KS-02 (R): Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt defeated businessman Shawn Tiffany 53-20 in the primary to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner. Schmidt's once-promising career took a big hit two years ago, after he narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, but the former attorney general's prominence made him the front-runner in this race even before he picked up Donald Trump's endorsement late in the campaign. 

Schmidt will be favored against former Rep. Nancy Boyda, who beat businessman Matt Kleinmann 52-48 in the Democratic primary for a constituency that resembles the one she won in 2006 but lost two years later. According to calculations by Daily Kos Elections, Trump carried this eastern Kansas seat by a 57-40 margin four years ago.

 KS-03 (R): Healthcare executive Prasanth Reddy pulled off an underwhelming 53-47 victory against businesswoman ​Karen Crnkovich in the primary to take on Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. Crnkovich, who raised little money, until Tuesday evening appeared to pose little threat to Reddy, whom the NRCC added to its Young Guns program just last week.

Republicans are still hoping that Reddy, despite coming close to a first-round elimination, can still put up a strong fight against Davids in a suburban Kansas City seat that they gerrymandered after the 2020 census. Joe Biden carried Kansas' 3rd District 51-47 in 2020, though Davids won reelection 55-43 two years later. Davids' allies at House Majority PAC have booked $800,000 in ads to defend her, but national GOP groups haven't reserved any airtime here so far.

Johnson County, KS Sheriff (R): Former undersheriff Doug Bedford defeated Sheriff Calvin Hayden, a far-right incumbent who spent the last few years spreading election conspiracy theories, 56-44 in the Republican primary in Kansas' largest county. Bedford, who has expressed faith that votes are being counted fairly, successfully argued that his old boss was wasting taxpayer money and behaving unprofessionally—an argument that rarely resonates with GOP voters.

Bedford will now face Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson, a Democrat who was the first Black person to lead a police department in the county. While Roberson will no longer have Hayden as a foil, he pointed to his party's continuing success in this populous community in suburban Kansas City when he told the Kansas City Star in March, "The political conditions in Johnson County would have to say a Democrat is a favorite."

Roberson is correct that Democrats are on an upswing in what was long a GOP stronghold. Joe Biden's 53-45 victory made him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the county since Woodrow Wilson in 1916, and the party scored more key wins here in 2022 and 2023.

MI-Sen (D & R): Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers will face off in their long-awaited general election showdown for this key Senate seat after winning their respective primaries. 

Slotkin defeated Hill Harper, an actor who struggled to gain traction throughout the campaign, 77-23 in the contest to succeed their fellow Democrat, retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Meanwhile, Rogers, who had the support of Trump and the NRSC, outpaced former Rep. Justin Amash 63-16.

MI-03 (R): Attorney Paul Hudson scored an uninspiring 55-45 win over Michael Markey, who ran a little-noticed 2022 bid for governor, in the primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten. Hudson, who campaigned for a seat on the state Supreme Court last cycle, benefited from around $700,000 in support from a super PAC funded by his brother, while Markey received no such aid. Biden carried this seat in the Grand Rapids area 53-45. 

MI-08 (D & R): Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet will go up against 2022 Republican nominee Paul Junge in what will be a closely watched race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee. The 8th District, which is based in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas, backed Biden 50-48 in 2020, which makes it one of the most competitive seats in the nation.

McDonald Rivet, who had the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC, decisively defeated businessman Matt Collier 53-26. (The Associated Press estimates that only 85% of the vote has been tabulated here as of Wednesday morning so the margin may change, but the outcome is not in doubt. We'll be citing the AP' estimate of what percentage of the vote has already been counted for any races where a significant proportion of the vote is outstanding.)

McDonald Rivet became a prized recruit after Kildee unexpectedly decided not to run again: Democratic consultant Adrian Hemond described her to The Daily Beast last year as the type of "solidly center-left Democrat" who can "play nice" with the district's large Catholic electorate, adding, "In terms of people who have a track record of winning tough elections in this area, Kristen McDonald Rivet is probably top of the list." 

Junge, by contrast, turned in a 75-15 landslide against retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves, who drew attention to his past electoral failures to label him "a two-time loser." But while Junge lost his 2022 campaign to Kildee by a lopsided 53-43 margin, he used his personal wealth to finance ads arguing that Draves was too close to McDonald Rivet and other Wolverine State Democrats. Junge, who worked for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services during the Trump administration, also picked up the endorsement of his party's master late in the campaign. 

MI-10 (D): Former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga earned his rematch with freshman GOP Rep. John James by defeating financial adviser Diane Young in the Democratic primary; Marlinga leads 48-25 with an estimated 71% in. Trump carried this suburban Detroit seat by a narrow 50-49 margin in 2020.

Marlinga, a former county prosecutor who has had a long and volatile career in local politics, held James to an unexpectedly tight 49-48 victory two years later despite being massively outspent by the Republican. Democratic donors, however, still seem skeptical that he can beat the well-funded congressman. Marlinga raised just $624,000 for the entire campaign through July 17, though that was more than what any of the other three Democrats on the ballot brought in. 

MI-13 (D): Freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar successfully fended off Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters in the primary for this safely blue seat. Thanedar's lead stands at 55-34 as of early Wednesday, with the AP estimating that 77% of the vote is in. 

Waters, who is Black, argued that Detroit once again needed a Black member of Congress (Thanedar is Indian American, while the city's other representative, Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American), and her side also declared that the incumbent did a poor job serving his constituents. But Waters became Thanedar's main opponent only in late May, after election officials determined that former state Sen. Adam Hollier failed to turn in enough signatures, and she brought in little money in the lead-up to this race.

That was not a problem for Thanedar, who poured over $5 million of his own money into his campaign. A pair of super PACs, including the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, also spent over $3 million to sink Waters, who received no such outside support. 

MO-Gov (R): Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel 39-33 in an intense primary to replace their fellow Republican, termed-out Gov. Mike Parson, while Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft unexpectedly took third place with just 23%. Missouri's hard shift to the right over the last decade and a half makes Kehoe the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade, who outpaced businessman Mike Hamra 50-32 in the Democratic contest.

Ashcroft spent months as the favorite for the job that his father and namesake, John Ashcroft, held before becoming a U.S. senator and later President George W. Bush's first attorney general. The secretary of state's once imposing poll numbers, however, slipped after he spent months on the receiving end of attacks from Kehoe, who had the support of Parson and influential donors like Rex Sinquefield.

Ashcroft benefited from a late ad buy from a little-known super PAC at a time when he most needed the help, but it turned out not even be enough to rescue him from third place. Kehoe, for his part, successfully campaigned as an ardent conservative who could work with others to advance right-wing goals but wasn't "a flame-thrower," in his words. 

Eigel, who generated national attention last year when he deployed a flamethrower at an event, wasn't able to win, much to the relief of the state Senate leaders he's spent years attacking. Eigel, though, was able to pass Ashcroft, who appealed to a similar set of hardline voters

MO-01 (D): St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell denied renomination to Rep. Cori Bush 51-46 following what AdImpact says was the second-most expensive House primary ever, setting him up as the overwhelming favorite to win Missouri's safely blue 1st District this fall.

Bush's loss comes six weeks after one of her allies, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, met the same fate in what remains the priciest House primary in American history. Both members were top targets of the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, and like Bowman, Bush was unable to counter its ads attacking her for voting against top Biden administration priorities.

Other organizations, including the crypto-backed super PAC Fairshake, additionally ran commercials criticizing the congresswoman for taking credit for securing billions in federal aid contained in bills she didn't vote for.

Bush also faced an ongoing federal investigation into allegations that she misused campaign funds to pay her husband for security services, though her detractors largely did not press the issue. However, the probe forced her to use her campaign account to pay for legal fees rather than to support her reelection effort.

AdImpact says that Bell and his allies ultimately spent close to $15 million on ads, while Bush's side deployed just over $4 million to secure her renomination. 

Bush and Bowman also have another unusual distinction in common: Both won their seats after unseating incumbents in primaries only to meet the same fate later. That makes them initiates in what Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin has dubbed the "'primary-in, primary-out' club," a small clique of just 14 members. (Virginia Republican Bob Good also joined the group this summer, though as we recently detailed, the circumstances of his initial victory make his entry unique.)

Bush, for her part, defeated 10-term Rep. Lacy Clay 49-46 in a 2020 primary, a major upset that came two years after Clay won an initial bout by a 57-37 margin. In her second campaign, Bush argued that Clay, whose family had represented the 1st District for over 50 years, had failed his constituents during the racial justice protests that followed the police killings of Michael Brown in 2014 and George Floyd in 2020.

Four years later, however, it was Bush who was on the receiving end of attacks arguing that she had lost touch with her constituents. Thanks to the success of those attacks, Bell is now the overwhelming favorite to prevail in the St. Louis-based 1st District, which voted for Biden by a 78-20 margin in 2020.

MO-03 (R): Bob Onder defeated another former state senator, Kurt Schaefer, 47-37 in the expensive primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in this conservative central Missouri seat. 

Onder, who was a member of the predecessor to the state legislature's Freedom Caucus, had Trump's endorsement. Luetkemeyer, by contrast, backed his old ally Schaefer over Onder, whom the now-congressman defeated in a bitter 2008 race for the now-defunct 9th District. 

Luetkemeyer and other people hostile to the national Freedom Caucus helped finance groups that ultimately spent more than $5 million to try to keep Onder out of Congress. Pro-Onder outfits, including the far-right Club for Growth, spent a smaller but still substantive $3 million to aid him, and their investment paid off on Tuesday.

MO-AG (R): Appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey overcame a notable financial disadvantage to defeat Trump attorney Will Scharf 63-37. Bailey will be the favorite in November against Democratic attorney Elad Gross.

Bailey was appointed to his post by Gov. Mike Parson after their fellow Republican, Eric Schmitt, was elected to the Senate in 2022, and Parson and other prominent state Republicans supported his campaign for a full term. Scharf, for his part, benefited from huge contributions from prominent national conservatives including his mentor, Federalist Society co-chair Leonard Leo.

There was little policy difference between the two Republicans, who have both spread lies about the 2020 election and each had Trump's endorsement. Bailey, though, worked to portray Scharf, who grew up in New York City and Florida, as an outsider. The incumbent notably ran ads against his Jewish rival that called him "sneaky" and showed his face in front of a dollar bill. Scharf told Jewish Insider that "a lot of people here in Missouri have expressed to me" that they believed those commercials were antisemitic, though he wouldn't say if he agreed.

MO Ballot: Statewide voters narrowly approved Amendment 4, a state constitutional amendment that empowered the state legislature to require Kansas City to spend at least 25% of its general revenue on its police, 51-49. 

This amendment passed 63-37 in the fall of 2022, but the Missouri Supreme Court declared this spring that a new vote was required because the original version included a flawed fiscal summary. Kansas City is one of the only major cities in America that doesn't have control over its own police force.

WA-Gov: Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert both advanced out of the top-two primary to their long-awaited general election battle to succeed Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who is retiring after three terms in office.

Ferguson is in first with 46% as of Wednesday morning, while Reichert leads his fellow Republican, far-right Army veteran Semi Bird, 28-9 for second. The Associated Press estimates that 58% of the total vote has been tabulated in this contest.

It will be a little while before all the votes are in because the Evergreen State conducts its elections almost entirely by mail, and ballots postmarked by Tuesday are still valid as long as they're received within a few days. This means that, while there's no question who prevailed in the top-two primary for governor, other Washington contests may take some time to resolve.

WA-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and far-right Army veteran Joe Kent both secured spots in the general election as the Trump-backed Kent seeks to avenge his tight upset loss from two years ago. With an estimated 54% tabulated, Gluesenkamp Perez is in first with 47%; Kent leads his fellow Republican, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, 38-12 for second.

Trump carried this seat in southwestern Washington 51-47 in 2020, and Kent looked like the favorite to go to Congress two years later after he prevented Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, a Republican who had voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6 riot, from advancing.

Kent responded to that first top-two primary victory by dubbing the district “deep red MAGA country,” and he seemed intent to do everything he could to put that premise to the test. Kent supported a nationwide abortion ban, wanted to make any weapon available to the military to be accessible to the public, and gave an interview to a Nazi sympathizer. Gluesenkamp Perez, who campaigned as a moderate, pulled off a 50-49 shocker that helped Democrats win every House seat that touches the Pacific Ocean—a feat they haven’t accomplished since before Washington became a state in 1889. 

Kent announced that he was running again before 2022 was even over, and he seems intent on waging the same kind of campaign that dragged him down the first time. The Republican declared last month, "I don't think it's unreasonable to say it seems like there's some degree of a plot to kill President Trump that was noticed by people in the Secret Service, and they either let it happen or some of them were in on it."

WA-04: Two Republicans, former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler and Rep. Dan Newhouse, lead in the top-two primary for this conservative seat in central Washington, but the AP has not yet called either spot. 

With an estimated 55% in, Sessler is in first with 30% as Newhouse is leading 2022 GOP Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley 25-19. Newhouse is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021. 

WA-05: The AP projects that Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner will advance to the general election to succeed his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, though it hasn't determined who his general election foe will be. With an estimated 57% in, Baumgartner is in front with 28% as former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy leads GOP state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber 20-12 for second. Trump carried this Spokane area seat 54-44 in 2020.

WA-06: A pair of state senators, Democrat Emily Randall and Republican Drew MacEwen, lead in the top-two primary to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer, though there's no AP call here yet for either general election spot. 

With an estimated 62% in, Randall is in front with 33% as MacEwen is edging out Democratic Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz 31-26. Biden carried this seat in the Tacoma area 57-40.

WA Land Commissioner: It remains to be seen if Democrats will even have a candidate on the November ballot for this statewide race. With an estimated 58% in, former GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is in front with 23% as 2020 GOP nominee Sue Kuehl Pederson leads the Democratic frontrunner, King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove, 20.3-20.0. (Just under 4,000 votes separate Kuehl Pederson and Upthegrove.) The AP has not called either general election spot.

Governors

DE-Gov: A group called Change Can't Wait PAC has launched a new TV ad ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary that praises New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer's healthcare plan and his support for abortion rights. While federal law prevents this type of organization from running ads directly telling viewers to vote for or against a candidate, Delaware Spotlight's Karl Baker reports that some of Meyer's supporters are behind it.

House

CA-16: Assemblyman Evan Low has publicized a Tulchin Research survey that finds former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, a fellow Democrat, leading him just 30-29 with a 41% plurality of voters undecided in this dark blue open seat. Last month, Liccardo's campaign shared a late-June internal from Lake Research Partners that showed him ahead 39-28, and no other polls have recently surfaced here.

FL-13: EMILYs List has endorsed former Pinellas County transportation official Whitney Fox with just two weeks left until the Aug. 20 primary for the Democratic nomination to take on freshman Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. This seat in the St. Petersburg area, which Republicans gerrymandered following the 2020 census, favored Donald Trump by a 53-46 margin four years ago.

MN-02: Despite saying last month that he was suspending his House campaign to serve as an adviser to Donald Trump's campaign, attorney Tayler Rahm has still been sending campaign mailers. The Star Tribune's Sydney Kashiwagi reports that Rahm appears to be engaged in a "shadow primary" campaign against former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who has the support of Donald Trump and House GOP leadership in the Aug. 13 GOP primary.

While Rahm himself again declared last week that he had suspended his effort, 2nd District GOP chair Joe Ditto told Kashiwagi he believed that Rahm still could pull off an upset next week. "It sounds like if [Rahm’s] victorious in the primary, he will unsuspend his campaign and run against Angie in the general," said Ditto.  

NV-02: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has endorsed wealthy investor Greg Kidd, a self-funding independent who is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Amodei in a race where Democrats did not field a candidate. Trump won this northern Nevada district 54-43, and while Democrats have not seriously contested it since Amodei's initial landslide in a 2011 special election, Kidd's lack of a party label could give him more of an opening.

TN-05: NewsChanel 5's Phil Williams reports that the FBI executed a search warrant on Republican Rep. Andy Ogles last week, though neither the FBI nor Ogles' attorney would confirm or deny the search and what it involved. Williams, whose previous reporting revealed how Ogles seemingly had fabricated large parts of his life story and submitted fraudulent campaign finance reports, relays that the search may have been related to the latter issue and involved the congressman's electronic devices.

Williams notes that the Department of Justice generally avoids openly investigating candidates within 60 days of Election Day so as not to influence the results, and the search happened the very next day after Ogles won Thursday's primary by 57-43 over Metro Nashville Councilmember Courtney Johnston.

Back in May, Ogles drew unwelcome attention after he dramatically amended his 2022 campaign finance reports to say he loaned his effort $20,000, rather than the $320,000 he'd previously claimed. Williams previously pointed out that the congressman's personal financial disclosures showed he lacked the wealth to make a loan of that size. (On those forms, Ogles did not even list any bank accounts.)

Those inflated figures allowed Ogles to claim he had considerably more money available three weeks before the primary than the paltry $2,000 he now says he had in the bank, and that exaggerated war chest may have convinced outside group allies like the Club for Growth that he was in stronger shape than he was. While Ogles would likely still be favored to win this fall in a heavily gerrymandered district that backed Trump 55-43 in 2020, it remains to be seen how much legal jeopardy he may be in.

TX-18: Former Houston Councilmember Dwight Boykins has ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee after her children endorsed former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, with Boykins saying, "I respect their decision." Local party precinct chairs are set to meet on Aug. 13 to choose a replacement nominee for November's ballot in this dark blue seat.

Poll Pile

  • AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Ruben Gallego (D): 42, Kari Lake (R): 36 (44-43 Harris with third-party candidates)
  • NM-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 40, Nella Domenici (R): 34 (44-37 Harris with third-party candidates)
  • NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 41, Sam Brown (R): 38 (40-40 presidential tie with third-party candidates) (July: 45-40 Rosen)
  • PA-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Bob Casey (D-inc): 45, Dave McCormick (R): 40 (46-44 Trump with third-party candidates) (July: 46-39 Casey)
  • NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Josh Stein (D): 43, Mark Robinson (R): 38 (44-41 Trump with third-party candidates) (July: 38-34 Stein)

Ad Roundup

Correction: This piece has been corrected to clarify that Kansas City is one of, but not the only, major cities in the country without control over its police force. Baltimore, MD also does not have full control over its police department.  Campaign Action