Morning Digest: What happens if Arizona passes dueling ballot measures to reshape its elections?

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Leading Off ● AZ Ballot: Arizona is one of several states that could dramatically alter how it elects its officials, but dueling ballot measures could take the state in two very different directions. The bipartisan group Make Elections Fair Arizona last Wednesday announced that it had submitted over 584,000 signatures to place a proposed constitutional amendment on the fall ballot that would do away with the state's current partisan primary system starting in 2026. County election officials have until Aug. 22 to verify that the group has turned in about 384,000 valid signatures―a figure that represents 15% of the votes for governor in the prior election. MEFA's amendment would require all the candidates, regardless of party, to run on one ballot for races for Congress, as well as for state and county offices where only one person can win. It would then be up to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and the legislature to decide whether two, three, four, or five candidates would reach the general election, though they're allowed to choose different numbers for different posts. If three or more contenders are allowed to move forward, then "voter rankings" would be used to determine the winner. The plan also would require "additional candidates" to advance in contests where more than one person can be elected, such as for the state House and the state Corporation Commission. It would also be up to the governor and legislature to decide how many contenders could move forward within the parameters of the amendment. If these state leaders failed to agree on all of these details by Nov. 1, 2025, though, it would be up to the secretary of state―a post currently held by Democrat Adrian Fontes―to make these calls. The legislature may only change the number of candidates who can advance "[n]ot more than once every six years." Republicans, however, are hoping that voters will instead back a rival amendment that would lock in the status quo. The GOP used its narrow majorities in both chambers of the legislature to place its own proposal before voters to preserve the partisan primary system. If both plans passed, only the one with the most "yes" votes would go into effect. If MEFA's proposal came out on top, though, there's little chance that Republicans would allow any system that allows for ranked-choice voting to move forward as long as they controlled at least one chamber. Indeed, a reform group called Voter Choice Arizona warned last year that the most likely outcome would be the adoption of the top-two primary system currently in use in two states, California and Washington. As we've written before, the top-two primary ensures that both parties need to be on guard to make sure that they don't get locked out of the general election even if they would be favored in the general election, which has happened to both Democrats and Republicans in California. However, while Voter Choice Arizona originally hoped to advance its own amendment to require five candidates to advance to an instant-runoff general election, this plan did not move forward. MEFA's leaders, who say that some ranked-choice proponents are aiding their effort, are arguing that a win at the ballot box would weaken extremists no matter what happens next. "They have given us a system of partisan gridlock. Where any compromise is considered treasonous by the side that you happen to be on," said former state Attorney General Terry Goddard, who was the Democratic nominee for governor in both 1990 and 2010. Several other states could also vote to revamp their current election systems in 2024. Election reform advocates in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and South Dakota—Washington, D.C.—are promoting various plans that would do away with partisan primaries, adopt ranked-choice voting, or both. Conservatives in Alaska, meanwhile, are backing an amendment that would repeal America's first top-four system and reinstate the old system of separate party primaries. 2Q Fundraising AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D): $10.4 million raised, $9.2 million cash on hand MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D): $6.45 million raised, $9.5 million cash on hand NJ-Sen: Andy Kim (D): $2 million raised, $4 million cash on hand CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc): $1.4 million raised, $3.6 million cash on hand; Will Rollins (D): $2.2 million raised, $4.7 million cash on hand TX-23: Tony Gonzales (R-inc): $1.7 million raised, $1.3 million cash on hand WA-06: Hilary Franz (D): $460,000 raised House ● AZ-01: Noble Predictive Insights, a firm that sometimes does work for conservative clients, finds "no clear leader" in the busy July 30 Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. David Schweikert: Businessman Andrei Cherny: 16 Former state Rep. Amish Shah: 16 Former TV news anchor Marlene Galán-Wood

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Jul 10, 2024 - 15:30
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Morning Digest: What happens if Arizona passes dueling ballot measures to reshape its elections?

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

● AZ Ballot: Arizona is one of several states that could dramatically alter how it elects its officials, but dueling ballot measures could take the state in two very different directions.

The bipartisan group Make Elections Fair Arizona last Wednesday announced that it had submitted over 584,000 signatures to place a proposed constitutional amendment on the fall ballot that would do away with the state's current partisan primary system starting in 2026. County election officials have until Aug. 22 to verify that the group has turned in about 384,000 valid signatures―a figure that represents 15% of the votes for governor in the prior election.

MEFA's amendment would require all the candidates, regardless of party, to run on one ballot for races for Congress, as well as for state and county offices where only one person can win.

It would then be up to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and the legislature to decide whether two, three, four, or five candidates would reach the general election, though they're allowed to choose different numbers for different posts. If three or more contenders are allowed to move forward, then "voter rankings" would be used to determine the winner.

The plan also would require "additional candidates" to advance in contests where more than one person can be elected, such as for the state House and the state Corporation Commission. It would also be up to the governor and legislature to decide how many contenders could move forward within the parameters of the amendment.

If these state leaders failed to agree on all of these details by Nov. 1, 2025, though, it would be up to the secretary of state―a post currently held by Democrat Adrian Fontes―to make these calls. The legislature may only change the number of candidates who can advance "[n]ot more than once every six years."

Republicans, however, are hoping that voters will instead back a rival amendment that would lock in the status quo. The GOP used its narrow majorities in both chambers of the legislature to place its own proposal before voters to preserve the partisan primary system. If both plans passed, only the one with the most "yes" votes would go into effect.

If MEFA's proposal came out on top, though, there's little chance that Republicans would allow any system that allows for ranked-choice voting to move forward as long as they controlled at least one chamber. Indeed, a reform group called Voter Choice Arizona warned last year that the most likely outcome would be the adoption of the top-two primary system currently in use in two states, California and Washington.

As we've written before, the top-two primary ensures that both parties need to be on guard to make sure that they don't get locked out of the general election even if they would be favored in the general election, which has happened to both Democrats and Republicans in California. However, while Voter Choice Arizona originally hoped to advance its own amendment to require five candidates to advance to an instant-runoff general election, this plan did not move forward.

MEFA's leaders, who say that some ranked-choice proponents are aiding their effort, are arguing that a win at the ballot box would weaken extremists no matter what happens next. "They have given us a system of partisan gridlock. Where any compromise is considered treasonous by the side that you happen to be on," said former state Attorney General Terry Goddard, who was the Democratic nominee for governor in both 1990 and 2010.

Several other states could also vote to revamp their current election systems in 2024. Election reform advocates in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and South Dakota—Washington, D.C.—are promoting various plans that would do away with partisan primaries, adopt ranked-choice voting, or both. Conservatives in Alaska, meanwhile, are backing an amendment that would repeal America's first top-four system and reinstate the old system of separate party primaries.

2Q Fundraising

  • AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D): $10.4 million raised, $9.2 million cash on hand
  • MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D): $6.45 million raised, $9.5 million cash on hand
  • NJ-Sen: Andy Kim (D): $2 million raised, $4 million cash on hand
  • CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc): $1.4 million raised, $3.6 million cash on hand; Will Rollins (D): $2.2 million raised, $4.7 million cash on hand
  • TX-23: Tony Gonzales (R-inc): $1.7 million raised, $1.3 million cash on hand
  • WA-06: Hilary Franz (D): $460,000 raised

House

● AZ-01: Noble Predictive Insights, a firm that sometimes does work for conservative clients, finds "no clear leader" in the busy July 30 Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. David Schweikert:

  • Businessman Andrei Cherny: 16
  • Former state Rep. Amish Shah: 16
  • Former TV news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods: 14
  • Finance executive Conor O'Callaghan: 11
  • Orthodontist Andrew Horne: 8
  • Former Arizona regional Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer: 1
  • Undecided: 35

Arizona's 1st District favored Joe Biden 50-49 four years ago, and both parties are preparing for a competitive battle here. Major Democratic groups have reserved $7.4 million in fall TV ad time in the Phoenix media market, while the GOP has booked a similar $7 million to defend Schweikert.

Ballot Measures

● OH Ballot: A sweeping amendment to protect and expand voting rights in Ohio won't appear on the ballot this fall thanks to obstruction by Republican officials that prevented supporters from gathering signatures before the July 3 deadline passed.

Attorney General Dave Yost in January rejected supporters' proposed ballot title of "Ohio Voters Bill of Rights" as misleading, which followed previous rejections of earlier ballot language proposals. While backers filed a lawsuit alleging that Yost exceeded his authority by doing this, the state's Republican-controlled Supreme Court refused to expedite the case—a move that effectively ensured the measure couldn't qualify for 2024.

Nonetheless, supporters plan to try again in a future election, and their lawsuit remains ongoing.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: ABC15 obtained a report from the Phoenix Equal Opportunity Department that "substantiated" newly disclosed allegations that former police officer Tyler Kamp sexually harassed a subordinate in 2020 and 2021. Kamp, who is challenging appointed Sheriff Russ Skinner in the July 30 Democratic primary, retired from the force before the probe began in 2022 and was not disciplined.

Kamp argued to ABC15 that the investigation was incomplete and suggested that the woman who complained about him might have done so to "mitigate some of her performances to avoid attention being drawn to herself." He also insisted that the text messages he'd sent that were included in the report were "completely taken out of context."

Obituaries

● Jim Inhofe: Former Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, a hardline Republican who represented the state in the upper chamber from 1994 until early last year, died Tuesday at the age of 89. We detailed Inhofe's long career in Sooner State politics, which includes his failed effort to bring a monorail to Tulsa during his time as mayor, when he announced his resignation in 2022.

Poll Pile

Ad Roundup

Campaign Action

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