Morning Digest: Arizona GOP seeks to end judicial elections after unpopular abortion ruling

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● AZ Ballot: Arizona's Republican-run legislature has approved a ballot measure that would eliminate regular judicial elections, a move designed to insulate two conservative incumbents who recently upheld a near-total ban on abortion from voters this fall.

Those justices, Kathryn King and Clint Bolick, will face retention elections in November, when voters will have the chance to decide whether they merit new six-year terms with a simple yes-or-no vote. But if the GOP's new amendment were to pass that same day, the results of those judicial elections would be retroactively wiped from the books, even if King and Bolick fail to earn majority support.

In addition, their terms—and those of most other judges in Arizona—would be extended indefinitely, capped only by the state's mandatory retirement age of 70. Judges would be subject to retention elections only if they fail to demonstrate "good behavior," a high bar that would be met in very limited circumstances, such as getting convicted of a felony or filing for bankruptcy.

In April, a group called Progress Arizona announced a two-pronged campaign to unseat King and Bolick and defeat the GOP's amendment, which at the time had yet to receive final approval. Now, both the state House and Senate have signed off, though in the upper chamber, one vote in favor on Wednesday came from Republican Shawnna Bolick, who rejected Democratic calls to recuse herself despite being married to Clint Bolick.

"When you share one pillow, I think it's a conflict of interest," said Democratic Sen. Theresa Hatathlie, according to the Arizona Capitol Times.

In advancing their amendment, Republicans signaled their desperation to avoid the prospect of Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs appointing replacements for King and Bolick, should the justices and the ballot measure all lose.

Judges in Arizona have rarely failed to win retention: Just six have lost at the ballot box since the state adopted the practice in 1974, and none at the Supreme Court level. But three of those judges were ousted recently, when voters denied new terms to a trio of trial court judges in populous Maricopa County in 2022.

That same year, ultraconservative Justice Bill Montgomery survived retention with just 56% of the vote. That tally, according to the Arizona Republic's Jimmy Jenkins, was the worst-ever performance by a member of the Supreme Court in state history.

Late last year, reproductive rights advocates successfully pushed Montgomery to recuse himself from the abortion ban case after it emerged that he had said Planned Parenthood had perpetrated the "greatest generational genocide known to man." Notably, his weak showing with voters came before abortion took center stage in Arizona politics.

In their zeal to shield King and Bolick, Republicans could also wind up undermining a host of their own priorities. Including their amendment to end retention elections, lawmakers have already referred 10 different measures to the ballot in a bid to get around Hobbs' vetoes and could send even more.

In March, some Republicans expressed concerns about potential "ballot fatigue" if ballots grow too long.

"The risk is everything would fail," House Speaker Ben Toma told the Arizona Republic's Mary Jo Pitzl, but his party has not heeded his warning. Pitzl now reports that in Maricopa County, which is home to three in five Arizonans, ballots "will already be two pages long and could lap over into a third page."

In addition, voters will likely get the opportunity to weigh in on an amendment that would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. Organizers said in April that they had already collected a sufficient number of signatures to qualify their proposal, but they have until July 3 to turn them in.

Senate

● UT-Sen: Rep. Blake Moore, whose 1st District covers the northernmost part of Utah, has endorsed fellow Rep. John Curtis ahead of the June 25 Republican primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney.

House

● AZ-08: Attorney Abe Hamadeh has publicized an internal from The Strategy Group Company that shows the Trump-backed candidate beating venture capitalist Blake Masters 30-19 in the incredibly ugly July 30 Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko.

Former Rep. Trent Franks and state House Speaker Ben Toma respectively take 12% and 10%, while 26% are undecided. The memo says that an unreleased April poll found Hamadeh ahead of Masters only 21-18.

We've rarely seen polls from The Strategy Group Company, but as Jason Zengerle detailed in GQ back in 2016, founder Rex Elsass has been active in GOP politics for a long time. "Name a conservative firebrand and Elsass has likely been on his or her payroll," Zengerle wrote of a client list that included Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Elsass more recently consulted for Vivek Ramaswamy's doomed presidential bid.  

This survey for Hamadeh was released about a month after a Masters internal from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showed Masters leading 28-16.

● DE-AL: On Thursday, both Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester and House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi endorsed state Sen. Sarah McBride to succeed Blunt Rochester for the House seat she's leaving behind to run for Senate. McBride's only prominent rival in the Sept. 10 primary dropped out of the race on Wednesday, and both she and Blunt Rochester are heavily favored to win their respective elections in a state that strongly leans toward Democrats.

● NH-02: EMILYs List has endorsed former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster in this 54-45 Biden district in the state's western half. Goodland's main opponent in the Sept. 10 primary is former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, who has the congresswoman's support.

● NV-04: The Associated Press has called Tuesday's Republican primary for former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, who defeated Air Force veteran David Flippo 48-45 for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford.

Donald Trump endorsed Lee, a longtime conservative Democrat who switched parties in 2021, for a seat that Joe Biden carried 53-45 four years ago. Lee himself briefly ran for the previous version of this constituency, which still contains the northern Las Vegas area and a slice of rural Nevada, back when he was a Democrat in 2011.

● TN-05: The Nashville Banner's Stephen Elliott reports that a new super PAC called Conservatives With Character has launched a commercial opposing Rep. Andy Ogles, who faces a challenge from Davidson County Metro Councilmember Courtney Johnston in the Aug. 1 Republican primary.

The ad buy is at least $120,000 for TV and $20,000 for digital services. The commercial claims Ogles supported tax increases and deficit spending in Congress and local office despite repeatedly paying his property taxes late. This is the first notable outside spending for this primary.

Elliott notes that the PAC's financial backers remain unknown but that former state Rep. Randy Stamps is listed as its treasurer. Stamps supported former state House Speaker Beth Harwell in last cycle's primary, where Ogles beat her 35-25 for an open seat that Republicans had newly gerrymandered to be securely red at 55-43 Trump.

Ballot Measures

● MT Ballot: Supporters of two ballot initiatives that would change Montana's electoral system say they have gathered more than 200,000 voter signatures ahead of the June 21 deadline to qualify for November's ballot, which is more than three times what they likely need statewide.

The reform package is split into two constitutional amendments, likely to comply with Montana's single-subject limit. Ballot Issue 12 would abolish party primaries and replace them with a first-round "primary" where all candidates would run on a single ballot and the top four finishers would advance to the November general election, regardless of party.

For that general election, Ballot Issue 13 would require state lawmakers to adopt an unspecified electoral method to guarantee that winners obtain a majority of the vote; candidates currently need a plurality. If the measures qualify and win voter approval, they will apply to elections for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide posts, the legislature, "and other offices as provided by law."

In order for each measure to make the ballot, organizers need valid signatures equal to 10% of the vote in the most recent election for governor both statewide and in at least 40 of 100 state House districts. Those numbers are roughly 60,000 statewide and 600 per district according to VEST data on Dave's redistricting app.

● SD Ballot: A mid-May Mason-Dixon survey for the University of South Dakota finds a 55-33 lead for a November ballot measure to establish a top-two primary system. This is the first poll we've seen all year for this proposal, which will be identified on the ballot as Amendment H.

Judges

● MI Supreme Court: Election conspiracy theorist Matthew DePerno, who is under indictment for allegedly being part of a scheme to illegally obtain a voting machine, announced Wednesday evening that he would seek the Republican nomination to unseat Michigan Supreme Court Justice Kyra Harris Bolden. Bolden is part of the body's 4-3 Democratic majority, and Republicans must win both seats that are up this year in order to take control.

DePerno's declaration comes less than two years after his campaign to unseat Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel ended in a 53-45 drubbing, but he's already making it clear he'll run the same type of far-right campaign he waged last time.

"Activist judges, prosecutors and attorney generals are using their power to prosecute their political enemies," claimed DePerno, who in 2022 called for the arrests of Nessel, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. (And yes, the plural for the post he sought two years ago is "attorneys general," not "attorney generals.")

Candidates for the state Supreme Court are chosen at party conventions instead of through traditional primaries, and both the Democratic and Republican gatherings will take place on Aug. 24.

Each party's picks will compete in statewide elections this November on a ballot that will not contain their party affiliations. Incumbent judges, however, are identified as "Justice of Supreme Court", which gives them a big advantage in a race where most voters know little about any of the candidates—an advantage only Bolden will have.

DePerno is one of three Republicans competing to take on Bolden, whom Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appointed to a vacant seat in 2022. His intra-party rivals are Branch County Judge Patrick William O’Grady and attorney Alexandria Taylor, who waged a barely-noticed bid for the U.S. Senate this cycle before switching races in April. This contest is for the second half of the eight-year term that Bolden's predecessor, former Democratic Chief Justice Bridget McCormack, won in 2020, so the winner will be up again in 2028.

Republicans also need to defend an open seat this year, as GOP Justice David Viviano is not seeking a new eight-year term. Trump is backing Michigan Court of Appeals Judge Mark Boonstra, who authored an opinion in 2021 where he deliberately misgendered a trans defendant. The other declared GOP candidate is state Rep. Andrew Fink, who unsuccessfully tried to weaken an expanded civil rights law approved by the legislature's Democratic majority.

Kimberly Thomas, who leads the University of Michigan Law School's Juvenile Justice Clinic, has the Democratic side to herself. Thomas, like Bolden, has been endorsed by the state party's leadership.

● WI Supreme Court: Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford has publicized endorsements from all four of the liberal justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, including retiring incumbent Ann Walsh Bradley, for next February's officially nonpartisan primary. No other major progressive candidates have entered the race, and Bradley and her colleagues are making it clear they don't want this to change.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

● Westchester County, NY District Attorney: Retiring District Attorney Mimi Rocah this week endorsed Susan Cacace, a former county judge who is competing in the three-way June 25 Democratic primary to succeed Rocah in populous Westchester County. The eventual nominee should have no trouble beating attorney John Sarcone, who has the GOP primary to himself, in a community that Joe Biden carried 68-31 in 2020.

Cacace's main intra-party foe appears to be defense attorney William Wagstaff, who has the support of the Working Families Party and the powerful labor group 1199 SEIU. The third Democratic candidate is Adeel Mirza, who lost his job in the district attorney's office after a subordinate accused him of sexual assault, an allegation he's called "frivolous."

Cacace, Politico highlights, hails from a prominent local family: Notably the jail in Yonkers is named for her late father, who is himself a former judge. Cacace launched her bid to succeed Rocah in December by touting her experience, and her victory at the county party convention a few months later solidified her status as the establishment favorite.

Wagstaff, who would be Westchester County's first Black district attorney, has a very different background. The candidate, who pled guilty to a credit card scam in 2004, has described how he went to law school almost two decades ago while under federal house arrest but got a second chance. "The role of a prosecutor should be more like the role of a parent," he's argued. "Parents disciple their children, but they do it from a space of compassion."

Wagstaff has also come into conflict with his would-be predecessor. In 2022 he argued that Rocah was "playing politics with young Black lives" when she charged his client in an assault case alongside members of a gang he did not belong to.

Wagstaff additionally clashed with Cacace in April when she accused him of committing fraud to get on the primary ballot. Wagstaff, who remains on the ballot, argued his opponent was backed by a "Trumpian power" that "doesn’t want to see us win."

Obituaries

● Neil Goldschmidt: Democrat Neil Goldschmidt, whose legacy as mayor of Portland and governor of Oregon was later overshadowed by revelations that he had repeatedly raped a teenage girl while in office, died Wednesday at the age of 83.

The Willamette Week's Nigel Jaquiss, who earned a Pulitzer Prize for breaking the news about the decades-long coverup in 2004, has an obituary about Goldschmidt, a once-powerful figure who was even touted as a potential presidential candidate. But Goldschmidt's career in elected office came to an end when he declined to seek reelection as governor in 1990—a decision that was shrouded in mystery until Jaquiss' exposé many years later.

Grab Bag

● Advertising: NOTUS' Maggie Severns details how the rise of streaming TV has given campaigns and outside groups new ways to direct their ads specifically at the viewer, something that is impossible with commercials that air on broadcast and cable TV. "In some cases, ad services claim they can follow a single person from their television to their smartphone and even to digital billboards at bus stops," she writes.

Severns also explains that smart TVs can even allow campaigns to try to avoid annoying voters by showing them too many of their ads, a problem that just about any TV viewer can relate to. Conversely, when a person who doesn't often watch streaming TV is tuning in, they can be hit "with extra doses of messaging."

Check out Severns' piece for much more on how campaign advertising is rapidly changing and how, in the words of one dismayed privacy advocate, "Television now watches us more than we watch it."

Ad Roundup

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc) - anti-Bernie Moreno (R)
• WI-Sen: Win Senate - anti-Eric Hovde (R)
• AZ-02: Eli Crane (R-inc)
• NY-16: Jamaal Bowman (D-inc) - anti-George Latimer (D); Justice Democrats - anti-Latimer (part of $200,000 buy)
• VA-10: VoteVets - pro-Dan Helmer (D)