Pastor who called for Lindsey Graham's execution on verge of winning House seat

Multiple House members are fighting for renomination Tuesday on one of the biggest primary nights of the year. Far-right icon Lauren Boebert will find out if her plan to swap House seats in Colorado has paid off, while New York Democrat Jamaal Bowman and Utah Republican Celeste Maloy both hope to avoid getting rejected by their current constituents.

There are many more contests to watch in all three states, both in races that will be key November battlegrounds and contests where winning the primary is tantamount to election. And to top things off, South Carolina is hosting runoffs in any races where no one earned a majority of the vote in the June 11 primary, including in a congressional race where Donald Trump's pick wants his state's senior senator put to death.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Colorado, New York, South Carolina, and Utah. This will be the first election where New York will use new maps for both Congress and the state Assembly, but the lines only shifted minimally.

You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states. This will be the last state primary night until Arizona goes to the polls a month from now on July 30, though we'll have a primary on July 16 for the special election in New Jersey's dark-blue 10th Congressional District to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Donald Payne.  

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when polls close in Colorado and New York at 9 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!

South Carolina

Polls close at 7 PM ET.

• SC-03 (R) (68-31 Trump): Far-right pastor Mark Burns outpaced Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs 33-29 in the first round of the primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan, a prominent social conservative whose estranged wife accused him of infidelity in divorce proceedings last year.

Burns, whose grim history of violent rhetoric includes a demand that South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham be executed for treason, picked up Donald Trump's endorsement in April. He's also earned the backing of state Rep. Stewart Jones, who finished in third place two weeks ago with 19%.

Biggs retains the support of Gov. Henry McMaster, and she's jabbed at her opponent over a rather unexpected vulnerability for a bellicose MAGA exponent: Burns admitted—on camera—to voting for Barack Obama not once but twice in the years before he became a Trump surrogate, footage that's featured in Biggs' attack ads.

Biggs has also benefited from considerably more outside spending than Burns for the second round. Over $500,000 has been deployed on her behalf, mostly from a group called Conservatives for American Excellence that's devoted to stopping hardline candidates who could cause headaches for the House GOP leadership.

Burns, by contrast, has gotten only about third-party $60,000 in support. He did, however, manage to secure a $750,000 bank loan to boost his bid despite pledging no collateral except for "future contributions" to his campaign.

Colorado

Polls close at 9 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

• CO-03 (R) (53-45 Trump): Seven Republicans are campaigning in western Colorado to replace far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert, who shocked the political world in December when she announced that she'd run in the more conservative 4th District at the other end of the state. The winner will go up against businessman Adam Frisch, who lost to Boebert by a shockingly small 546-vote margin as the Democratic nominee in 2022 and has millions at his disposal for his second go-round.

The two Republicans who've generated the most attention are attorney Jeff Hurd, who had been seeking to oust Boebert before she switched districts, and former state Rep. Ron Hanks, an underfunded election denier. The field also includes businessman Lew Webb; financial adviser Russ Andrews; and Stephen Varela, a member of the state Board of Education who is under federal investigation for allegedly misspending his union's money, but they've all struggled to gain traction.

Democrats believe that Hanks, like Boebert, is weak enough to cost the GOP control of what should be a reliably red seat, and they're taking action to ensure he'll be their opponent. The progressive group Rocky Mountain Values has spent over $400,000 on commercials ostensibly attacking Hanks as "too conservative for Colorado," a tactic Democrats unsuccessfully tried when Hanks ran for Senate two years ago. Frisch is also working to weaken Hurd by highlighting his refusal to say whether he's backing Donald Trump.

But the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the main Republican super PAC devoted to House races, is working to counter this effort with its own $400,000 blitz claiming that Hanks is the one who is insufficiently pro-Trump. Americans for Prosperity, which is part of the Koch political network, has also deployed a comparable sum to promote Hurd. 

Not every GOP institution, however, is so hostile to Hanks. The state Republican Party, which is led by far-right extremists, endorsed Hanks while trashing Hurd's connections to AFP, a group that became toxic in MAGA world after it backed Nikki Haley's unsuccessful campaign against Trump.

An early June poll for an unidentified organization showed Hurd leading Hanks 27-9, with 52% of voters undecided.

• CO-04 (special) (58-39 Trump): Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez is favored to succeed former Rep. Ken Buck, a fellow Republican who resigned in March, in a dark red seat that includes the eastern part of the state and the Denver exurbs. Democrats, though, are hoping that their nominee, former congressional staffer Trisha Calvarese, will run ahead of Joe Biden's showing in the 4th District four years ago. 

Lopez, unlike Calvarese, is not seeking a full term, which happens to be good news for the state's most infamous Republican. Rep. Lauren Boebert had accused Buck of timing his departure in order to weaken her in the primary for a full term that's taking place that same day. Boebert argued that Buck hoped that the party's vacancy committee, which was tasked with picking a nominee for the special election, would choose one of her opponents in order to help that person become her main rival.

But Lopez convinced delegates to choose him as a placeholder and "avoid giving an unfair advantage to any one particular candidate"—a decision that delighted Boebert, who did not seek the nod for the special election.

• CO-04 (R) (58-39 Trump): Boebert faces six opponents in the primary for a full two-year term, and just as she hoped, Lopez's nomination has prevented any of them from establishing themself as the main choice for anti-Boebert voters. The congresswoman, despite her many scandals and virtually non-existent ties to the area, enjoys Trump's support and a major financial edge.

The field includes a trio of local elected officials—Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg and state Reps. Richard Holtorf and Mike Lynch—who are still hoping their local roots will help them overcome Boebert's advantages. Also in the running are conservative talk show host Deborah Flora, wealthy perennial candidate Peter Yu, and former congressional aide Chris Phelen.

• CO-05 (R) (53-43 Trump): Rep. Doug Lamborn is retiring from a seat based in the Colorado Springs area, and the two fellow Republicans campaigning to replace him are each someone he's beaten in past primaries. Lamborn is supporting conservative radio host Jeff Crank, who says they've put their ugly faceoffs in the 2006 and 2008 primaries behind them. House Speaker Mike Johnson is also backing Crank.

The other option is state party chair Dave Williams, a former state representative who challenged Lamborn last cycle and lost 47-33. Trump is pulling for Williams, who has been using the state party apparatus to promote his candidacy.

Williams, however, has made plenty of enemies beyond just Lamborn. Outside groups have deployed almost $3 million to keep him out of Congress. Most of this spending has come from a pair of super PACs devoted to stopping hardline candidates, while Americans for Prosperity is also working to beat him. There's been minimal effort, by contrast, to help Williams, who has been a weak fundraiser.

The state party chair also disgusted normal Americans and even infuriated fellow Republicans when he used the party's social media and email accounts earlier this month to send a virulently anti-LGBTQ+ message that called for burning Pride flags by referencing an infamous hate group's slogan. Multiple county-level GOP organizations called for Williams' ouster as state chair, but he's refused to budge.

• CO-08 (R) (51-46 Biden): Both parties anticipate that state Rep. Gabe Evans will be the GOP nominee against freshman Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in this competitive constituency in the Denver suburbs, but Evans must first dispatch former state Rep. Janak Joshi. 

Joshi, who badly lost his last two campaigns for public office while still living in Colorado Springs, unexpectedly earned the state party's backing in May. That endorsement, though, likely did more to draw attention to the poor shape of the Colorado GOP than actually boost its candidate. Trump, despite his alliance with party chair Dave Williams, went on to join Speaker Mike Johnson by endorsing Evans.

New York

Polls close at 9 PM ET.

• NY-01 (D) (50-49 Trump): Two Democrats are competing to take on GOP Rep. Nick LaLota in a seat based on eastern Long Island that Democrats in the legislature actually made slightly redder earlier this year after redrawing New York's map pursuant to a court ruling.

The more familiar name to national observers belongs to John Avlon, a former CNN anchor who co-founded No Labels in 2010. In the other corner is Nancy Goroff, the former head of the chemistry department at Stony Brook University who was the party's nominee for a previous version of the 1st District in 2020. Goroff has self-funded much of her latest effort, while Avlon has tapped into his large donor network.

Goroff has portrayed Avlon, a longtime Manhattan resident who first voted on Long Island in 2020, as an outsider. She's also taken him to task for serving as a high-level staffer to Republican Rudy Giuliani while he was mayor of New York City and during his 2008 presidential bid.

Avlon has countered by highlighting Goroff's 55-45 loss to then-Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2020 (Trump carried that version of the 1st District 51-47), which he argues proves she's too weak to beat LaLota. Welcome PAC, a group that supports moderate Democrats, has spent over $1.7 million to help Avlon.

• NY-16 (D) (72-27 Biden): Two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman is trying to hold on against Westchester County Executive George Latimer, one of the most prominent politicians in the area, in what has become the most expensive House primary in American history. 

Outside groups have deployed a mammoth $17.5 million with the goal of sinking Bowman. Most of that spending has come from AIPAC, which wants to end the career of one of the most ardent critics of Israel's government, though the crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake has also piled on.

Bowman's left-wing allies, most notably the Justice Democrats and Working Families Party, have spent around $3 million to help him, which would be a huge sum in just about any other race.

Latimer's side has run commercials attacking Bowman for voting against Biden administration priorities from the left, a habit his critics say proves he's unreliable. They've further highlighted Bowman's guilty plea to a misdemeanor in October for falsely pulling a fire alarm in a House office building and have gone after the congressman for using an old blog to spread conspiracy theories about the Sept. 11 attacks.

Bowman and his backers have responded by trying to make Latimer's support from AIPAC, which receives much of its funding from Republican donors, into a liability. The congressman, who is Black, has also accused his white opponent of racism.

• NY-22 (D) (55-43 Biden): Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams was already one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House even before the legislature made his seat in the Syracuse and Utica areas more Democratic. Two Democrats are campaigning to face him.

State Sen. John Mannion, who has the backing of several unions, is facing off against DeWitt Town Board member Sarah Klee Hood, an Air Force veteran who came close to winning the primary in 2022.

Several former Mannion staffers, however, published an open letter during the final week of the race accusing him of abusing his legislative staff and fostering a hostile work environment. Mannion has denied the allegations and argued they were made to weaken his campaign.

• NY-24 (R) (59-39 Trump): Rep. Claudia Tenney, whose district is based in the Finger Lakes region, faces a repeat challenge from Mario Fratto, an attorney whom she beat 54-40 in 2022. That unimpressive showing came after redistricting prompted Tenney, who hails from the Utica area, to campaign for a seat that barely overlapped with the one she already represented.

Fratto, who is self-funding most of his campaign, is once again working to portray the hard-right incumbent as an outsider who has failed conservatives. Tenney has hit back by touting her endorsement from Trump and labeling her opponent "pro-crime."

• Westchester County District Attorney (D) (68-31 Biden): District Attorney Mimi Rocah is retiring after one term, a decision that inspired two fellow Democrats to run to replace her as the top prosecutor for this populous suburban county just north of New York City.

Rocah is backing Susan Cacace, a former county judge who hails from a prominent legal family. Cacace, who also earned the support of the Democratic Party at a convention earlier this year, has touted her legal experience.

Defense attorney William Wagstaff, who has come into conflict with Rocah's office in the past, has a very different profile. Wagstaff pled guilty to a credit card scam in 2004 but went to law school while under federal house arrest, a story he's highlighted in his campaign. The Working Families Party and the powerful labor union 1199 SEIU are backing Wagstaff, who would be Westchester County's first Black district attorney.

Utah

Polls close at 10 PM ET / 8 PM local time.

• UT-Sen (R) (58-38 Trump): Trump and his allies want to replace the Republican he may most despise, retiring Sen. Mitt Romney, with a loyal far-right ally, but they'll need to overcome a massive financial deficit to do so.

The candidate Trump is pulling for in the four-way GOP primary is Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, who spent months challenging Romney before the incumbent decided to call it quits last year. Hours after earning Trump's endorsement, Staggs won April's state party convention, an event that's always dominated by far-right activists, but neither development has done much to improve his underwhelming fundraising or encourage major outside groups to boost him.

The frontrunner remains Rep. John Curtis, who, while far from anti-Trump, hasn't campaigned as an ardent MAGA ally. The congressman has benefited from just shy of $10 million in outside spending, which is more than ten times as much as Staggs' backers have deployed. Curtis' main benefactor has been Conservative Values for Utah, one of several groups nationwide whose goal it is to thwart Republicans who might be hostile to the party's leadership. The crypto-backed Defend American Jobs is also helping Curtis.

Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson and businessman Jason Walton are also running, but while they've invested plenty of their personal wealth into the contest, neither has gained traction. Wilson seems to have decided there's no use burning more of his fortune, as he largely stopped advertising during the final weeks of the race.

A nonpartisan poll from early June showed Curtis lapping Staggs 34-16, with Wilson and Walton at 12% and 4%, respectively. A survey conducted days before the primary also gave the congressman a comparable 48-28 advantage. 

• UT-Gov (R) (58-38 Trump): Gov. Spencer Cox, the rare member of today's GOP who's both an ardent conservative and a vocal Trump critic, faces a primary challenge from one of Utah's most prominent election deniers, far-right state Rep. Phil Lyman.

Lyman, who spent 10 days in prison after being convicted for leading an all-terrain vehicle group through a canyon the federal government had closed to protect Native American cliff dwellings in 2015, decisively beat Cox at the state party convention.

But Lyman, who was later pardoned by Trump, has struggled to convince the larger primary electorate to dump their governor, and an early June poll showed Cox ahead 62-25. A poll conducted less than a week before Election Day, however, gave Cox a considerably smaller 55-42 advantage.  

• UT-02 (R) (57-40 Trump): Rep. Celeste Maloy, who was elected in a special election last year, is trying to fend off Army Reserve Col. Colby Jenkins in southwestern Utah. Jenkins, who has far-right Sen. Mike Lee's endorsement, outpaced Maloy 57-43 at the party convention—a near-death experience for the congresswoman, as she would have failed to make the primary ballot altogether had she fallen below 40%.

The challenger, though, might have missed his only good shot to put Maloy away. The incumbent earned Trump's backing during the final week of the race, and she's made the most of her fundraising advantage. Still, independent expenditure groups have deployed over to $550,000 to boost Jenkins, with most of that coming from a PAC controlled by Lee.

• UT-03 (R) (57-38 Trump): The GOP has an expensive five-way primary to replace Senate candidate John Curtis for a seat based in the Provo area, southeastern Salt Lake City, and rural southeastern Utah.

While there's no obvious frontrunner, one candidate may have carved out a lane on the far right. State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who took on Mitt Romney in the 2018 Senate primary, won top honors at the GOP's April convention. He went on to pick up the support of Utah's other senator, Mike Lee, in the final week of the contest.

Kennedy, though, is far from the best-funded choice in a race that includes two self-funders. One of those contenders is Case Lawrence, a former CEO of the trampoline park chain Sky Zone, while the other is Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird. Both men, like Kennedy, are campaigning as ardent Trump backers, though Lawrence has also drawn attention for supporting Congress' recent vote to aid Ukraine. 

The same cannot be said for state Auditor John Dougall, who, in a tactic that's almost unheard of in GOP primaries these days, has paid for billboards identifying him as "MAINSTREAM NOT MAGA." Dougall, the only statewide elected official in the contest, has also stood out by denouncing Trump.

Rounding out the field is attorney Stewart Peay, who has Romney's endorsement. (Peay's wife, Misha, is a niece of Romney's wife, Ann.) Peay, unlike the rest of the field, has dodged questions about whether he backs his party's master. There has been minimal outside spending in this contest.

Editor's note: This piece has been updated to include late polling of Utah's Senate and governor's races from Noble Predictive Insights.