Oakland mayor learns she'll face recall election two days before FBI raids her house

Election officials in Alameda County, California announced Tuesday that the campaign to recall Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao had turned in enough signatures to force a vote, a development that came two days before the FBI raided the mayor's home.  Law enforcement officials, who also conducted raids on three other local sites, did not provide any details into what they were investigating, though ABC 7's Lena Howland reports it "involves the IRS and the US Postal Service." The East Bay Times also says that one of the other locations is the home of businessman Andy Duong, whom the Public Ethics Commission has been investigating since 2020. Duong has been accused of using "straw donors" to help multiple candidates for the City Council, including Thao. Thao was elected mayor in 2022 by defeating Loren Taylor, a fellow council member who ran to her right, 50.3-49.7 in an instant-runoff contest. Thao, though, has faced a difficult term as the city continues to recover from the COVID pandemic and the Oakland A's looming relocation to Las Vegas. The campaign to recall the mayor has faulted her handling of crime, while Thao has defended her record. The City Council is set to meet on July 2 to schedule the recall, and the East Bay Times says they're likely to place it on the Nov. 5 general election ballot; Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, whose jurisdiction includes Oakland, is also fighting to avoid being recalled that same day. Recall elections expert Joshua Spivak writes that, should a majority vote to remove Thao, a special election would take place in the coming months. The president of the City Council would become mayor for the ensuing time, though that adds another complication. The current leader, Nikki Fortunato Bas, is the frontrunner for a seat on the county Board of Supervisors, so Thao's defeat could require a second person to serve as interim mayor in the lead-up to a special election. Spivak also notes that Oakland will be the largest municipality in the country to hold a mayoral recall election since 2011, when incumbents in both Omaha, Nebraska, and Miami-Dade County, Florida faced the voters. Nebraska conservatives hoped that a backlash over taxes would allow them to cut Democratic Mayor Jim Suttle's term short: Suttle held on 51-49, but he badly lost reelection two years later against Republican Jean Stothert. Republican Carlos Álvarez, though, was on the losing side of an 88-12 drubbing, a result that made Miami-Dade County the second-most populous community in America to recall its leader. (The largest remains the state of California, which replaced Democratic Gov. Gray Davis with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.)  Taxes also played a key role in Álvarez's recall, though unlike Suttle, he was unable to convincingly argue his actions were vital to protecting the local economy. As one source told the Swing State Project, the predecessor site to Daily Kos Elections, Álvarez "raised taxes, then raised his staff’s salary, then got himself a luxury car at government expense when they already provide him two SUVs."

Oakland mayor learns she'll face recall election two days before FBI raids her house

Election officials in Alameda County, California announced Tuesday that the campaign to recall Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao had turned in enough signatures to force a vote, a development that came two days before the FBI raided the mayor's home

Law enforcement officials, who also conducted raids on three other local sites, did not provide any details into what they were investigating, though ABC 7's Lena Howland reports it "involves the IRS and the US Postal Service." The East Bay Times also says that one of the other locations is the home of businessman Andy Duong, whom the Public Ethics Commission has been investigating since 2020. Duong has been accused of using "straw donors" to help multiple candidates for the City Council, including Thao.

Thao was elected mayor in 2022 by defeating Loren Taylor, a fellow council member who ran to her right, 50.3-49.7 in an instant-runoff contest. Thao, though, has faced a difficult term as the city continues to recover from the COVID pandemic and the Oakland A's looming relocation to Las Vegas. The campaign to recall the mayor has faulted her handling of crime, while Thao has defended her record.

The City Council is set to meet on July 2 to schedule the recall, and the East Bay Times says they're likely to place it on the Nov. 5 general election ballot; Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, whose jurisdiction includes Oakland, is also fighting to avoid being recalled that same day.

Recall elections expert Joshua Spivak writes that, should a majority vote to remove Thao, a special election would take place in the coming months. The president of the City Council would become mayor for the ensuing time, though that adds another complication. The current leader, Nikki Fortunato Bas, is the frontrunner for a seat on the county Board of Supervisors, so Thao's defeat could require a second person to serve as interim mayor in the lead-up to a special election.

Spivak also notes that Oakland will be the largest municipality in the country to hold a mayoral recall election since 2011, when incumbents in both Omaha, Nebraska, and Miami-Dade County, Florida faced the voters. Nebraska conservatives hoped that a backlash over taxes would allow them to cut Democratic Mayor Jim Suttle's term short: Suttle held on 51-49, but he badly lost reelection two years later against Republican Jean Stothert.

Republican Carlos Álvarez, though, was on the losing side of an 88-12 drubbing, a result that made Miami-Dade County the second-most populous community in America to recall its leader. (The largest remains the state of California, which replaced Democratic Gov. Gray Davis with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.) 

Taxes also played a key role in Álvarez's recall, though unlike Suttle, he was unable to convincingly argue his actions were vital to protecting the local economy. As one source told the Swing State Project, the predecessor site to Daily Kos Elections, Álvarez "raised taxes, then raised his staff’s salary, then got himself a luxury car at government expense when they already provide him two SUVs."