Morning Digest: Why a tiny primary could have big implications for November

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● NY-17: Former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones is in danger of losing Tuesday's Working Families Party primary to a little-known candidate named Anthony Frascone, whom both Jones and the WFP leadership have accused of running to help Republican Rep. Mike Lawler win reelection in New York's competitive 17th District. With 337 votes tabulated as of Thursday morning, Frascone leads Jones by a 55-45 margin, a difference of 31 votes. However, the Associated Press has not yet called the race, and its estimates of the total expected vote have shifted dramatically—but even coming up with an estimate for a contest like this has to be all but impossible. Indeed, according to the state's Board of Elections, the WFP has hosted exactly one primary in a House race since its founding in 1998. That lone election took place in 2006 in the 25th District, which at the time was based in the Syracuse area, and saw future Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei defeat his opponent 50 votes to 16. The WFP's nomination can matter quite a bit, though, because of the Empire State's unusual election laws. New York, according to Ballotpedia, is one of just five states that allow candidates to claim multiple party nominations, a practice known as fusion voting. (The others are Connecticut, Mississippi, Oregon, and Vermont.) In New York, a candidate appears on the general election ballot in the column of every party that's nominated them, or, in local parlance, gives them their ballot line. As a result, contenders are often listed multiple times. (You can see an example here.) The candidates' votes under each ballot line are "fused" together to determine the winner, and support from voters who favor smaller parties can make all the difference. Just such a scenario played out in this very district two years ago. Then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney took 47% of the vote under the Democratic line, while only 44% marked their ballot for Lawler as the Republican nominee. However, another 6% backed Lawler on the Conservative Party line, while just 3% cast ballots for Maloney as the WFP's candidate. With all lines totes up, Lawler narrowly prevailed by a 50.3-49.7 margin in a constituency that had favored Joe Biden 54-44 two years earlier. The final outcome represented a stunning loss for Maloney, who at the time was chair of the official campaign arm of House Democrats. The labor-backed WFP almost always supports the Democratic nominee in general elections, and Jones appeared poised to claim its ballot line until a few weeks ago. However, that changed after he endorsed Westchester County Executive George Latimer's successful primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the neighboring 16th District. The leadership of the state WFP, which was one of Bowman's most ardent allies, responded by announcing that the party would no longer aid Jones, though he still remained their endorsed candidate. That acrimony, though, provided an opening for Frascone, who appears poised to win the primary and officially become the WFP's nominee this fall. But despite their falling out, neither Jones nor the WFP wants to see this happen. Before the election, both highlighted Frascone's history of voting in GOP primaries, with the WFP charging that his bid was an "attempt by GOP operatives to hijack our ballot line." Frascone, whom Politico said did not appear to have so much as a campaign website, did not respond to reporters' inquiries. And if Frascone does indeed emerge with the WFP nod, his presence on the ballot could cost Jones some much-needed support from progressive voters and make it easier for Lawler to win. The incumbent, for his part, once again has the Conservative Party, which almost always supports Republicans, in his corner. P.S. While it's rare for the Conservatives or the WFP to oppose their erstwhile allies in a competitive general election, it's not unheard of. Most notably, Conservatives were infuriated when GOP leaders nominated moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava for a 2009 special election for the 23rd District in rural upstate New York, prompting them to field right-winger Doug Hoffman. What followed was a strange three-way general election between Scozzafava, Hoffman, and Bill Owens, who had the Democratic and WFP lines. Things became even more chaotic during the final weekend when Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. Owens ended up outpacing Hoffman 48-46, with Scozzafava securing the remaining 6% on the Republican line. The Downballot ● Momentous elections are taking place in just days in France, so we've brought Bolts editor-in-chief Daniel Nichanian on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to give us the complete picture. Nichanian deciphers President Emmanuel Macron's opaque rat

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Morning Digest: Why a tiny primary could have big implications for November

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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Leading Off

● NY-17: Former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones is in danger of losing Tuesday's Working Families Party primary to a little-known candidate named Anthony Frascone, whom both Jones and the WFP leadership have accused of running to help Republican Rep. Mike Lawler win reelection in New York's competitive 17th District.

With 337 votes tabulated as of Thursday morning, Frascone leads Jones by a 55-45 margin, a difference of 31 votes. However, the Associated Press has not yet called the race, and its estimates of the total expected vote have shifted dramatically—but even coming up with an estimate for a contest like this has to be all but impossible.

Indeed, according to the state's Board of Elections, the WFP has hosted exactly one primary in a House race since its founding in 1998. That lone election took place in 2006 in the 25th District, which at the time was based in the Syracuse area, and saw future Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei defeat his opponent 50 votes to 16.

The WFP's nomination can matter quite a bit, though, because of the Empire State's unusual election laws. New York, according to Ballotpedia, is one of just five states that allow candidates to claim multiple party nominations, a practice known as fusion voting. (The others are Connecticut, Mississippi, Oregon, and Vermont.)

In New York, a candidate appears on the general election ballot in the column of every party that's nominated them, or, in local parlance, gives them their ballot line. As a result, contenders are often listed multiple times. (You can see an example here.) The candidates' votes under each ballot line are "fused" together to determine the winner, and support from voters who favor smaller parties can make all the difference.

Just such a scenario played out in this very district two years ago. Then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney took 47% of the vote under the Democratic line, while only 44% marked their ballot for Lawler as the Republican nominee. However, another 6% backed Lawler on the Conservative Party line, while just 3% cast ballots for Maloney as the WFP's candidate.

With all lines totes up, Lawler narrowly prevailed by a 50.3-49.7 margin in a constituency that had favored Joe Biden 54-44 two years earlier. The final outcome represented a stunning loss for Maloney, who at the time was chair of the official campaign arm of House Democrats.

The labor-backed WFP almost always supports the Democratic nominee in general elections, and Jones appeared poised to claim its ballot line until a few weeks ago. However, that changed after he endorsed Westchester County Executive George Latimer's successful primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the neighboring 16th District.

The leadership of the state WFP, which was one of Bowman's most ardent allies, responded by announcing that the party would no longer aid Jones, though he still remained their endorsed candidate. That acrimony, though, provided an opening for Frascone, who appears poised to win the primary and officially become the WFP's nominee this fall.

But despite their falling out, neither Jones nor the WFP wants to see this happen. Before the election, both highlighted Frascone's history of voting in GOP primaries, with the WFP charging that his bid was an "attempt by GOP operatives to hijack our ballot line." Frascone, whom Politico said did not appear to have so much as a campaign website, did not respond to reporters' inquiries.

And if Frascone does indeed emerge with the WFP nod, his presence on the ballot could cost Jones some much-needed support from progressive voters and make it easier for Lawler to win. The incumbent, for his part, once again has the Conservative Party, which almost always supports Republicans, in his corner.

P.S. While it's rare for the Conservatives or the WFP to oppose their erstwhile allies in a competitive general election, it's not unheard of. Most notably, Conservatives were infuriated when GOP leaders nominated moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava for a 2009 special election for the 23rd District in rural upstate New York, prompting them to field right-winger Doug Hoffman.

What followed was a strange three-way general election between Scozzafava, Hoffman, and Bill Owens, who had the Democratic and WFP lines. Things became even more chaotic during the final weekend when Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. Owens ended up outpacing Hoffman 48-46, with Scozzafava securing the remaining 6% on the Republican line.

The Downballot

● Momentous elections are taking place in just days in France, so we've brought Bolts editor-in-chief Daniel Nichanian on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to give us the complete picture. Nichanian deciphers President Emmanuel Macron's opaque rationale for calling snap elections despite his party's grim standing in the polls and explains why, for the first time ever, the longstanding firewall between the center-right and the far right has finally collapsed—and could usher in the most extreme government that America's oldest ally has seen since the Vichy regime.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also give due attention to elections on this side of the Atlantic, with a rundown of Tuesday's primaries. They discuss why it's a mistake to conclude that AIPAC's massive spending was the chief driver of Jamaal Bowman's fall, then delve into the not one, not two, but three different GOP primaries that saw Trump-backed candidates all lose.

To all of our loyal listeners, "The Downballot" will be taking off next week for the Fourth of July, but we'll be back in two weeks' time with a new episode! Click here to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform.

Governors

● NJ-Gov: Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli's allies at Kitchen Table Conservatives last week publicized a poll from KAConsulting that showed the 2021 nominee decisively defeating conservative radio host Bill Spadea 44-11 in next year's GOP primary, with none of the other candidates taking more than 3%. This survey, which comes from Kellyanne Conway’s company, is the first we've seen of the 2025 GOP nomination battle.

House

● FL-20: The House Ethics Committee announced Tuesday that it is broadening its probe into alleged campaign finance violations by Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. The committee revealed that it is now looking into whether the congresswoman "engaged in improper conduct" regarding funding requests for community projects, "misused official funds for campaign purposes," and broke campaign finance laws for her 2024 election.

Late last year, the panel announced it was investigating Cherfilus-McCormick over allegations from the 2022 cycle, including the special election to succeed the late Rep. Alcee Hastings in this dark blue seat in the inland Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach areas. The congresswoman won the Democratic primary by just 5 votes before trouncing her Republican foe in the special, and she loaned her campaign $4.7 million for that contest overall.

Despite that razor-thin initial win in the primary, Cherfilus-McCormick easily secured renomination for a full term in 2022, and she drew no Democratic or Republican challengers this cycle.

● LA-06: While state Sen. Cleo Fields has spent the last five months as the only major candidate campaigning for the revamped 6th District, two fellow Democrats tell the Shreveport Times' Greg Hilburn that they could still oppose him in the November all-party primary.

The more prominent name belongs to state Sen. Gerald Boudreaux, who informs Hilburn that he's still "polling and seeing how we stand on fundraising" ahead of the July 19 filing deadline. Boudreaux, who is the leader of the Democratic Caucus, is the equivalent of the chamber's minority leader.

Boudreaux previously spent two decades as a basketball referee at the NCAA, including at four championships. (The organization is currently led by Charlie Baker, Massachusetts' former Republican governor.) Boudreaux, who later served as the NCAA's supervisor of men’s basketball officials, represents areas around Lafayette in the southern portion of what's now a dark blue constituency.

Activist Gary Chambers, meanwhile, tells Hilburn he's still making up his mind as well. Chambers in 2021 came surprisingly close to making the runoff in the special election for the old 2nd District, but he took a distant second place the next year against GOP Sen. John Kennedy.

Former Alexandria Mayor Jeff Hall, however, sounds unlikely to run, saying, "Right now if you look at the numbers there's not a whole lot here." Hilburn adds that former state Sen. Greg Tarver has decided to stay out of the contest, though there's no quote from him. (Tarver was the subject of a 2022 piece from Nola.com's Tyler Bridges that contains what remains perhaps the most jaw-dropping description of a politician that we've ever read.)

● MO-01: Democratic Majority for Israel is out with an internal poll from The Mellman Group that shows its endorsed candidate, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, edging out Rep. Cori Bush 43-42 in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary for this safely blue seat in the St. Louis area. (Pollster Mark Mellman leads both organizations.) Another 4% opt for one of the other candidates, former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and teacher Ron Harshaw, with the remaining 11% undecided.

The only other poll we've seen of the contest was conducted in February by the Republican pollster Remington Research for the local tipsheet the Missouri Scout, and it showed Bell with a huge 50-28 advantage. But Mellman's memo, which was first publicized by Politico, says that its own unreleased survey from the previous month gave Bush a 45-29 advantage.

● VA-05: Rep. Bob Good told Politico Tuesday that he'll seek and pay for a recount of last week's GOP primary for Virginia's 5th District, where he trails state Sen. John McGuire 50.3-49.7—a margin of 373 votes. Cardinal News says that Good, who is continuing to spread conspiracy theories about the contest, would have 10 days to request a recount after the state certifies the results on July 2.

While the Associated Press has not yet called the primary for McGuire, Good's fellow Republicans aren't waiting to troll the Freedom Caucus chairman. George Rep. Austin Scott told NOTUS of the incumbent's behavior, "People are getting to see the Bob Good that we’ve gotten used to." Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden piled on, "Don’t let the door hit you in the ass, Bob. Or, do. I don’t care."

● WI-03: Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke has publicized a GQR internal poll that finds her trailing by 50-46 against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a spread similar to Donald Trump's 51-47 victory here in 2020. The release did not include any numbers for the 2024 presidential race, the Aug. 13 Democratic primary against state Rep. Katrina Shankland, or a potential fall election between Shankland and Van Orden.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

● Albany County, NY District Attorney: Criminal defense attorney Lee Kindlon scored a 55-45 victory against 20-year incumbent David Soares, who infuriated criminal justice reformers in recent years, in Tuesday's Democratic primary for district attorney of Albany County. Kindlon will be favored in the general election in a reliably blue county that includes New York's eponymous capital city.

Soares, Bolts' Rebecca McCray writes, appeared to be a reformer himself when he was first elected in 2004 following his primary victory over his own boss, District Attorney Paul Clyne. Those days are long gone: Soares, as leader of New York's district attorney association, ardently opposed the state legislature's bail reforms in 2019 and has since called for them to be weakened. He's also denounced other policies, including a law that raised the age where a teenager could be prosecuted as an adult from 16 to 18.

Kindlon, who unsuccessfully campaigned against Soares in 2012, launched a new effort in February after the public learned that the incumbent took almost $24,000 in bonuses from a state grant meant to support his subordinates. Kindlon used his second campaign to argue that Soares had done a poor job managing his office and keeping the community safe.

"I think he assails the system as a way to just have somebody to blame for his own failures," the challenger told McCray. "I mean, I really just think it’s a cynical ploy to rail against these reforms, because he’s out of good ideas."

Several members of the local establishment sided with Kindlon, including County Executive Dan McCoy and Albany Mayor Kathy Sheehan, and he also enjoyed the support of the Working Families Party. The Albany County’s Democratic Committee, meanwhile, remained neutral.

Poll Pile

  • MT-Sen: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) for More Jobs, Less Government (pro-Sheehy): Tim Sheehy (R): 46, Jon Tester (D-inc): 43, Sid Daoud (L): 4 (54-36 Trump in two-way)
  • WI-Sen: Marquette Law School: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 52, Eric Hovde (R): 47 (51-49 Biden in two-way, 44-42 Trump with third-party candidates) (April: 50-50 Senate tie)

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