Morning Digest: Two red states could vote to restore abortion rights this fall

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Leading Off ● AR Ballot & NE Ballot: Reproductive rights advocates in Nebraska and Arkansas both submitted signatures last week to place amendments guaranteeing the right to an abortion on their respective states' ballots this fall. However, election officials still need to determine whether each measure―as well as a rival amendment in Nebraska backed by conservatives―will qualify for the ballot. A group called Protect Our Rights, which is spearheading the abortion rights effort in Nebraska, says that it submitted about 207,000 signatures, which the campaign said was the most in state history. Supporters need the state to validate about 123,000 signatures―a figure that represents 10% of the state's registered voters―and that they've hit certain targets in at least 38 of Nebraska's 93 counties. These geographic requirements hinder progressives in a state where the "bluest" two-fifths of counties still include some dark-red rural areas, but the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford writes that unnamed "[p]olitical observers" anticipate that it will qualify. Those observers, however, have the same expectations for a rival plan from a conservative group called Protect Women and Children, which says it turned in 205,000 signatures. Sanderford writes that election officials have a total of 40 days to verify signatures for each amendment, "plus a little time to transport signatures for verification." The amendment proposed by Protect Our Rights would allow abortions to take place until fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy. The conservative plan, by contrast, would enshrine the 12-week ban the legislature approved last year into the state constitution. The amendment would also allow lawmakers to pass more restrictive bans, something that Republican Gov. Jim Pillen previewed last year when he pledged to "end abortion." If both amendments pass, the state constitution says that the one with the most "yes" votes "shall thereby become law as to all conflicting provisions." A tracking poll from Civiqs shows that a 52-43 majority of Nebraska voters say that abortion should be legal all or most of the time, though Sanford relays that unreleased surveys show both amendments "have polled well." Arkansans for Limited Government, meanwhile, says it turned in about 101,000 signatures on behalf of its proposal to restore abortion rights in the state. The group needs the state to validate 90,704 of them―a figure that represents 10% of the ballots cast in the most recent gubernatorial election. A potentially bigger impediment, however, is a new GOP law that also requires organizers to reach certain thresholds in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties, a major hurdle for progressives given that Joe Biden carried only eight of the state's counties in 2020. Supporters say that they've hit their goals in 53 counties, though they acknowledged that "we just have to wait" to see if election officials agree. The Associated Press says that the secretary of state's office has 30 days to validate signatures, though backers may get more time if their initial haul falls short. The state grants campaigns an additional 30 days to gather signatures if election officials say they're 75% of the way to the target both statewide and in 50 separate counties. But even if the measure does qualify, the campaign will have to convince a very conservative state to actually pass it. A tracking survey from Civiqs illustrates just how high that hurdle is: A 52-44 majority of Arkansas voters believe that abortion should be illegal all or most of the time. Advocates, however, hope that anger at the state's near-total abortion ban will buoy their amendment, which would allow the procedure to take place up to 18 weeks into a pregnancy. It also would guarantee the right to an abortion in several instances, including rape, incest, or to protect the mother. 2Q Fundraising NJ-Gov: Bill Spadea (R): $477,000 raised (in two weeks); Jon Bramnick (R): $340,000 raised CA-16: Sam Liccardo (D): $1.6 million raised, $1.9 million cash on hand  CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D-inc): $1.8 million raised, $3.3 million cash on hand DE-AL: Sarah McBride (D): $750,000 raised NY-04: Laura Gillen (D): $1.9 million raised NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc): $1.5 million raised, $3.9 million cash on hand OR-05: Janelle Bynum (D): $1.5 million raised TN-05: Courtney Johnston (R): $715,000 raised, $500,000 cash on hand House ● CA-08: Democratic Rep. John Garamendi announced Monday that he'd been diagnosed with multiple myeloma, which he described as "a form of treatable blood cancer." Garamendi, who is seeking reelection in California's safely Democratic 8th District, added that his doctor expects his treatment to last "a few months."   ● MO-01: A

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Jul 9, 2024 - 18:30
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Morning Digest: Two red states could vote to restore abortion rights this fall

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

● AR Ballot & NE Ballot: Reproductive rights advocates in Nebraska and Arkansas both submitted signatures last week to place amendments guaranteeing the right to an abortion on their respective states' ballots this fall. However, election officials still need to determine whether each measure―as well as a rival amendment in Nebraska backed by conservatives―will qualify for the ballot.

A group called Protect Our Rights, which is spearheading the abortion rights effort in Nebraska, says that it submitted about 207,000 signatures, which the campaign said was the most in state history.

Supporters need the state to validate about 123,000 signatures―a figure that represents 10% of the state's registered voters―and that they've hit certain targets in at least 38 of Nebraska's 93 counties. These geographic requirements hinder progressives in a state where the "bluest" two-fifths of counties still include some dark-red rural areas, but the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford writes that unnamed "[p]olitical observers" anticipate that it will qualify.

Those observers, however, have the same expectations for a rival plan from a conservative group called Protect Women and Children, which says it turned in 205,000 signatures. Sanderford writes that election officials have a total of 40 days to verify signatures for each amendment, "plus a little time to transport signatures for verification."

The amendment proposed by Protect Our Rights would allow abortions to take place until fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy. The conservative plan, by contrast, would enshrine the 12-week ban the legislature approved last year into the state constitution. The amendment would also allow lawmakers to pass more restrictive bans, something that Republican Gov. Jim Pillen previewed last year when he pledged to "end abortion."

If both amendments pass, the state constitution says that the one with the most "yes" votes "shall thereby become law as to all conflicting provisions." A tracking poll from Civiqs shows that a 52-43 majority of Nebraska voters say that abortion should be legal all or most of the time, though Sanford relays that unreleased surveys show both amendments "have polled well."

Arkansans for Limited Government, meanwhile, says it turned in about 101,000 signatures on behalf of its proposal to restore abortion rights in the state. The group needs the state to validate 90,704 of them―a figure that represents 10% of the ballots cast in the most recent gubernatorial election.

A potentially bigger impediment, however, is a new GOP law that also requires organizers to reach certain thresholds in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties, a major hurdle for progressives given that Joe Biden carried only eight of the state's counties in 2020. Supporters say that they've hit their goals in 53 counties, though they acknowledged that "we just have to wait" to see if election officials agree.

The Associated Press says that the secretary of state's office has 30 days to validate signatures, though backers may get more time if their initial haul falls short. The state grants campaigns an additional 30 days to gather signatures if election officials say they're 75% of the way to the target both statewide and in 50 separate counties.

But even if the measure does qualify, the campaign will have to convince a very conservative state to actually pass it. A tracking survey from Civiqs illustrates just how high that hurdle is: A 52-44 majority of Arkansas voters believe that abortion should be illegal all or most of the time.

Advocates, however, hope that anger at the state's near-total abortion ban will buoy their amendment, which would allow the procedure to take place up to 18 weeks into a pregnancy. It also would guarantee the right to an abortion in several instances, including rape, incest, or to protect the mother.

2Q Fundraising

House

● CA-08: Democratic Rep. John Garamendi announced Monday that he'd been diagnosed with multiple myeloma, which he described as "a form of treatable blood cancer." Garamendi, who is seeking reelection in California's safely Democratic 8th District, added that his doctor expects his treatment to last "a few months."  

● MO-01: AdImpact reports that AIPAC's United Democracy Project has now spent $4.2 million on ads to attack Rep. Cori Bush and promote St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, who is the congresswoman's main rival in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary.

The incumbent will soon receive some additional help from the Justice Democrats, whose first TV ad campaign will begin this week, but AdImpact says the group is spending only around $100,000 so far. The firm also relays that Bell's campaign has outspent Bush $724,000 to $329,000 in advertising with just under a month to go before Election Day.

● MO-03: Donald Trump endorsed former state Sen. Bob Onder on Monday ahead of next month's Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in Missouri's safely red 3rd District.

Trump also attacked Onder's main rival and Luetkemeyer's preferred successor, former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer, as “weak on MAGA." Trump did not elaborate on his beef with Schaefer, merely posting, "That's all you have to know!"

Trump's support for Onder, who was a member of the predecessor of the state legislature's Freedom Caucus, is some rare good news for the eponymous national group. NOTUS' Reese Gorman reported last month on the House Freedom Caucus' frustration with Trump's picks in contested primaries this cycle, including his ultimately successful drive to oust caucus chair Bob Good in Virginia. (Good is seeking a recount.)

But Luetkemeyer, who told a local radio station in April that his Freedom Caucus colleagues "got themselves backed into a corner now that they are ready to hand the House over to the Democrats," probably isn't glad to see Trump weigh in. Luetkemeyer defeated Onder in the 2008 primary for the now-defunct 9th District, a nasty contest that saw the two frontrunners attack one another on a debate stage after the debate was over.

● NJ-10: Campaign fundraising reports were due Thursday for the July 16 special Democratic primary for New Jersey's safely blue 10th District, though the only major takeaway is that none of the candidates brought in much money in the relatively short period since the death of Rep. Donald Payne in April.

Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver, who has long looked like the frontrunner, took in $90,000 from donors through June 26, which made her the top fundraiser. New Jersey Redevelopment Authority COO Darryl Godfrey and Linden Mayor Derek Armstead respectively raised around $60,000 and $50,000, while Godfrey has self-funded around $40,000 more.

Former East Orange Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, meanwhile, raised less than $10,000. A fifth contender, Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, did not appear to have filed paperwork as of Monday. That delay, though, didn't prevent Walker from obtaining an endorsement from Hudson County Executive Craig Guy, whose county is home to almost 20% of the district's residents.

The FEC has not tracked any outside spending with about a week left before the primary.

● NY-17: Election officials confirmed Wednesday that a little-known candidate named Anthony Frascone has defeated former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the June 25 primary for the progressive Working Families Party. 

Jones and the WFP have both accused Frascone, who has a history of voting in Republican primaries, of being part of an effort to help GOP Rep. Mike Lawler win reelection in New York's competitive 17th District. The WFP normally cross-endorses Democratic candidates like Jones, who often rely on votes received on the party's line to carry the day in close races.

Ballot Measures

● PR Ballot: Gov. Pedro Pierluisi has announced that Puerto Rico will vote on a non-binding referendum concerning the territory's legal status this fall, though unlike with past ballot measures, there will be no option to reaffirm the island's current status as a commonwealth.

Voters instead will be asked if they want Puerto Rico to become a state, an independent nation, or an independent nation with free association, an arrangement that the United States has with several former Pacific territories. Congress would need to assent to any change in Puerto Rico's status, and Republicans have made it clear that they'd block any attempt to make it a state.

"Under the Democrats, if they get the sweep, they are going to make Puerto Rico a state and Washington D.C. a state," Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst charged last month. "And you know what? They're not going to have red senators, either. We will never control the Senate again." A draft version of the GOP's convention platform released on Monday also removed a plank supporting Puerto Rican statehood.

The island's most recent referendum, held in 2020, saw residents back statehood by a 53-47 margin, though other options were not presented. Pierluisi, who is both a member of Puerto Rico's pro-statehood New Progressive Party and a Democrat, lost the PNP's primary last month to Jenniffer González-Colón, who represents the territory in Congress as a Republican. She'll face off in a multi-way race this November that includes one opponent who favors maintaining the status quo and another supporting independence.

Poll Pile

  • TX-Sen: Manhattan Institute: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 46, Colin Allred (D): 43 (52-41 Trump in two-way, 45-36 Trump with third-party candidates)

  • WI-Sen: SoCal Research for On Point Politics: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 38 (44-43 Trump in two-way)

The Manhattan Institute is a conservative think-tank.

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