Morning Digest: Freedom Caucus chair needs a miracle to survive Trump's wrath tonight

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● Primary Night: A pair of prominent House Republicans are trying to overcome two very different types of intra-party foes on an election night that, as Jeff Singer previews, has plenty in store. House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good has spent the entire election cycle antagonizing just about everyone in the GOP, making him the underdog on Tuesday against Donald Trump's choice, Virginia state Sen. John McGuire. One of the many colleagues who would be happy to watch him lose is South Carolina Rep. William Timmons, who just last week narrowly won his own primary against a Good-backed foe. Timmons, eager for revenge, chartered a bus to ferry himself and a bunch of supporters to Virginia to campaign for McGuire. He also issued a dire prophecy. "The only Republican incumbent that loses this cycle is going to be Bob Good," Timmons posted on X. "And he won't lose because of policy, but because of tactics and because his colleagues overwhelmingly do not trust or respect him." Even one member of Good's Freedom Caucus has decided that it's now safe to cross him. Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson endorsed McGuire over the weekend, a move Politico described as "unprecedented." But House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole, who last year blasted Good and the seven other Republicans who ended Kevin McCarthy's speakership, is one person who may not have time to fantasize about what a post-Good House would be like—including whether he'll ever be allowed to resume smoking cigars there. That's because Cole faces an expensive primary battle back home in Oklahoma against an opponent who is hoping his massive personal funds and messaging opposing government spending will convince voters to ignore his weak ties to the Sooner State. There's a lot more to watch on Tuesday, including two packed and expensive Democratic primaries in Northern Virginia. We have much more about both primaries in our preview, as well as many other major contests. We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close starting at 7:00 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage! Senate ● UT-Sen: Defend American Jobs, a super PAC aligned with the crypto industry, is running a TV ad ahead of the June 25 GOP primary that attacks Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs for repeatedly supporting tax increases while serving in local office, calling him "too liberal" for Utah. It's unclear how much the group, which supports Rep. John Curtis, is spending on this latest spot, though it has deployed $3.2 million in this race so far. And DAJ, which is part of a network of crypto-backed super PACs alongside Protect Progress and Fairshake, has access to plenty more money: A spokesperson for the network told Politico last month that it collectively had $75 million in cash on hand. Despite securing Donald Trump's endorsement in April, Staggs has struggled to raise money while he's faced an onslaught of outside spending. From April 8 through June 5, Stags raised just shy of $260,000 and had $375,000 remaining in his war chest. While outside groups have spent roughly $940,000 to boost Staggs or oppose Curtis, DAJ and others have spent a total of $8.9 million to support the congressman or attack Staggs. Governors ● IN-Gov, IN-LG: Delegates at Saturday's Indiana Republican convention unexpectedly voted 891-828 to nominate far-right pastor Micah Beckwith for lieutenant governor over state Rep. Julie McGuire, who was backed by gubernatorial nominee Mike Braun and Donald Trump. One prominent Braun ally responded to Beckwith's selection by arguing it would pose a "serious threat" to Braun's electoral prospects even in this red state and perhaps lead one of the state's best-known Democrats to launch a late bid for governor. Powerful attorney Jim Bopp, who runs Braun's super PAC, used a memo obtained by Politico's Adam Wren to predict that the Democratic nominee, former state education superintendent Jennifer McCormick, will step aside so that party leaders could replace her with former Sen. Joe Donnelly. Bopp also believed that McCormick, who does not have a running mate right now, would fill that spot on a Donnelly ticket. (Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor are chosen separately but win or lose the general election together.) Donnelly, who lost reelection to Braun 51-45 in 2018, announced in late May that he'd step down as ambassador to the Vatican effective July 8, but he's shown no obvious interest in running for office this year. A spokesperson McCormick, whose assent would be required to pull off such a swap, also said Monday​ that she​ "has not been asked to step aside, nor would she consider doing so." The deadline for nominees to withdraw is July 15, and it would be up

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Jun 18, 2024 - 16:30
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Morning Digest: Freedom Caucus chair needs a miracle to survive Trump's wrath tonight

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● Primary Night: A pair of prominent House Republicans are trying to overcome two very different types of intra-party foes on an election night that, as Jeff Singer previews, has plenty in store.

House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good has spent the entire election cycle antagonizing just about everyone in the GOP, making him the underdog on Tuesday against Donald Trump's choice, Virginia state Sen. John McGuire.

One of the many colleagues who would be happy to watch him lose is South Carolina Rep. William Timmons, who just last week narrowly won his own primary against a Good-backed foe. Timmons, eager for revenge, chartered a bus to ferry himself and a bunch of supporters to Virginia to campaign for McGuire. He also issued a dire prophecy.

"The only Republican incumbent that loses this cycle is going to be Bob Good," Timmons posted on X. "And he won't lose because of policy, but because of tactics and because his colleagues overwhelmingly do not trust or respect him."

Even one member of Good's Freedom Caucus has decided that it's now safe to cross him. Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson endorsed McGuire over the weekend, a move Politico described as "unprecedented."

But House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole, who last year blasted Good and the seven other Republicans who ended Kevin McCarthy's speakership, is one person who may not have time to fantasize about what a post-Good House would be like—including whether he'll ever be allowed to resume smoking cigars there.

That's because Cole faces an expensive primary battle back home in Oklahoma against an opponent who is hoping his massive personal funds and messaging opposing government spending will convince voters to ignore his weak ties to the Sooner State.

There's a lot more to watch on Tuesday, including two packed and expensive Democratic primaries in Northern Virginia. We have much more about both primaries in our preview, as well as many other major contests.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close starting at 7:00 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!

Senate

● UT-Sen: Defend American Jobs, a super PAC aligned with the crypto industry, is running a TV ad ahead of the June 25 GOP primary that attacks Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs for repeatedly supporting tax increases while serving in local office, calling him "too liberal" for Utah.

It's unclear how much the group, which supports Rep. John Curtis, is spending on this latest spot, though it has deployed $3.2 million in this race so far. And DAJ, which is part of a network of crypto-backed super PACs alongside Protect Progress and Fairshake, has access to plenty more money: A spokesperson for the network told Politico last month that it collectively had $75 million in cash on hand.

Despite securing Donald Trump's endorsement in April, Staggs has struggled to raise money while he's faced an onslaught of outside spending. From April 8 through June 5, Stags raised just shy of $260,000 and had $375,000 remaining in his war chest. While outside groups have spent roughly $940,000 to boost Staggs or oppose Curtis, DAJ and others have spent a total of $8.9 million to support the congressman or attack Staggs.

Governors

● IN-Gov, IN-LG: Delegates at Saturday's Indiana Republican convention unexpectedly voted 891-828 to nominate far-right pastor Micah Beckwith for lieutenant governor over state Rep. Julie McGuire, who was backed by gubernatorial nominee Mike Braun and Donald Trump.

One prominent Braun ally responded to Beckwith's selection by arguing it would pose a "serious threat" to Braun's electoral prospects even in this red state and perhaps lead one of the state's best-known Democrats to launch a late bid for governor. Powerful attorney Jim Bopp, who runs Braun's super PAC, used a memo obtained by Politico's Adam Wren to predict that the Democratic nominee, former state education superintendent Jennifer McCormick, will step aside so that party leaders could replace her with former Sen. Joe Donnelly.

Bopp also believed that McCormick, who does not have a running mate right now, would fill that spot on a Donnelly ticket. (Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor are chosen separately but win or lose the general election together.)

Donnelly, who lost reelection to Braun 51-45 in 2018, announced in late May that he'd step down as ambassador to the Vatican effective July 8, but he's shown no obvious interest in running for office this year. A spokesperson McCormick, whose assent would be required to pull off such a swap, also said Monday​ that she​ "has not been asked to step aside, nor would she consider doing so." The deadline for nominees to withdraw is July 15, and it would be up to party leaders to choose new candidates to fill any vacancies.

Both Democrats and Republicans took advantage of this law in 2016, though for different reasons. Former Rep. Barron Hill gave up the Democratic nomination for Senate that year so that the party could replace him with former Sen. Evan Bayh, who nonetheless lost to Republican Todd Young.

Gov. Mike Pence, for his part, had to end his reelection plan to become Trump's running mate because state law prohibited him from appearing on the ballot for both posts: Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb took Pence's place on the ballot and went on to win two terms.

Bopp, though, argued that Braun's campaign to succeed the termed-out Holcomb is now in danger because of Beckwith. Bopp highlighted how reporters already asked Braun to respond to a video Beckwith made following the Jan. 6 riot where the pastor declared, "I was in prayer this morning … and you know what the Lord told me? He said, 'Micah,' he said, 'I sent those riots to Washington.'"

That's far from the only thing Bopp said that has his detractors aghast. Wren on Monday posted a now-deleted 2011 tweet where Beckwith mocked people with autism. The candidate more recently responded to a column from the Indianapolis Star's James Briggs warning that he'd "hijack the governor's office for Christian nationalists" by proudly claiming that label for himself. "My definition of a 'Christian Nationalist' is someone who loves Christ and loves their nation," he wrote last week. "I will NEVER be ashamed of my identity in Christ and I will NEVER stop loving this great nation God has given us!"

Bopp also used his memo to highlight how Beckwith won over delegates by saying he'd push his own agenda and "hold the Republican Establishment in account," which Bopp said could create chaos should the GOP ticket prevail this fall. The attorney, though, was not happy to see his words blasted out. "I do not discuss confidential communications with others," he said in a statement to the Indiana Capitol Chronicle. "And I think it was despicable that someone leaked it."

Braun, unlike Bopp, argued all was fine between him and his unwanted running mate. Braun addressed Beckwith during his convention speech and declared, "[E]ven though I chose someone else to be my partner, you and I have known one another. Everything you believe in, I have as well."

● NJ-Gov: State Attorney General Matthew Platkin indicted longtime South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross along with five of his associates on corruption charges on Monday.

Those charges are certain to reverberate throughout the Garden State, where many politicians owe their careers to Norcross' influence. But the biggest and most immediate impact might be felt by former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, one of several Democrats vying for the state's open governorship next year.

Sweeney wasn't charged in the case, but he was referenced in the indictment as "State Senate President." Platkin specifically noted that Sweeney and Norcross "were political allies" and that the defendant "has hosted numerous fundraisers" for Sweeney "throughout his political career." Indeed, as Steve Kornacki wrote in Politico in 2011, Norcross played a vital role in Sweeney's 2001 election to the legislature and his subsequent rise through the ranks.

Norcross has remained an ardent booster of Sweeney's campaign for the state's top job, headlining still another fundraiser for him just last month. That event was also hosted by Norcross' brother—and codefendant—Philip, an attorney. (Another Norcross brother, Donald, has represented the state's 1st Congressional District since 2014. He was not charged.)

One South Jersey Democrat, however, has recently risen to prominence in spite of, rather than because of, Norcross. Even though the Norcross machine had lined up behind the Senate bid of Tammy Murphy, the wife of Gov. Phil Murphy, Rep. Andy Kim defied the old order and succeeded in squeezing Murphy out of the race months before the primary.

Kim's ascent represents a massive sea change from a not-to-distant era when Norcross ruled with an iron fist.

"It's not written down anywhere," Kornacki said, "but it's acknowledged by everyone (privately, of course): You don't run for office as a Democrat in South Jersey unless George is OK with it—and you don't win in the fall without him."

● NJ-Gov: Conservative talk radio host Bill Spadea has announced he will join next year's Republican primary for governor to succeed Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is term-limited.

Spadea positioned himself as a "pro-Trump" hardliner running against the state party's "insider establishment powerbrokers," and the New Jersey Globe reports that Trump personally praised Spadea during an appearance on his show last month. The company that owns New Jersey 101.5, Spedea's station, said he will remain on the airwaves "until he becomes a legally qualified candidate."

Spadea joins a primary field that includes former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who held Murphy to a close 51-48 win in 2021; state Sen. Jon Bramnick; and former state Sen. Ed Durr.

House

● CO-04: Colorado Newsline has rounded up the latest FEC reports covering April 1 through June 5, and 3rd District Rep. Lauren Boebert is dominating her rivals ahead of next week's Republican primary for the open and dark red 4th District. Boebert raised $333,000 and had $681,000 left over on June 6 after spending $1.4 million for the cycle.

Boebert's GOP opponents have brought in far less. Conservative radio host Deborah Flora raised just $67,000 and had $118,000 remaining, while Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg took in only $43,000 and had $92,000 in the bank. Wealthy perennial candidate Peter Yu raised practically nothing from donors, but his $273,000 war chest was the second largest thanks to earlier self-funding. The other members of this seven-person field trailed far behind.

● NH-01: Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur announced Friday that he was joining the Sept. 10 Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, a declaration that came hours before the close of candidate filing. Levasseur, who told the New Hampshire Journal he was running "100% to be with Trump and to help him get his agenda through," is campaigning for a seat that Joe Biden carried 52-46 in 2020.

Levasseur, who was first elected to his citywide post in 2011, has remained in office despite numerous instances of Trump-like outbursts, including a 2013 incident where the police chief accused him of calling officers "dopes, clowns, jerks, buffoons." He was later censured by his colleagues after the state's attorney general concluded he'd made "unfounded" allegations about officers trying to intimidate him.

But while voters at home have continued to reelect Levasseur, his numerous attempts to win other offices have almost always gone poorly. These include a 2016 bid to cost Pappas his seat on the state's unique Executive Council that ended in a 49-46 defeat, and a failed 2022 campaign for a spot in the 400-member state House.

Levasseur is one of seven Republicans competing to take on Pappas in the 1st Congressional District, which is based in the eastern part of the state. The two prominent candidates appear to be former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott, who took fourth place in the 2022 primary, and businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky. Businessman Chris Bright is also in.

There were no unexpected last-minute developments in the primary to succeed a pair of retiring incumbents, GOP Gov. Chris Sununu and Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in the 2nd District. With the close of filing in the Granite State on Friday, the only three states where major party candidates can still run for Congress or state-level office in 2024 are Delaware, Louisiana, and Rhode Island.

● NJ-10: Former Assemblyman William Payne and other members of the Payne family have endorsed Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver ahead of the July 16 Democratic primary for the special election to succeed the late Rep. Donald Payne, who was William Payne's nephew. McIver also secured the endorsement of SEIU NJ State Council, which Insider NJ describes as representing unions covering 15,000 service employees statewide.

Legislatures

● Florida: Candidate filing for state legislative races closed on Friday, and Florida Democrats are contesting every district up for election this fall―something that, according to state voting rights attorney Nicholas Warren, they last did in 1966. This is part of a trend this year in several states with Republican-run legislatures, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, and even dark-red Idaho where Democrats are running candidates in the overwhelming majority of seats that are on the ballot.

Florida Democrats remain highly unlikely to win deeply conservative districts where Republicans often go unchallenged, but contesting every district is a potential sign of how enthusiastic Democrats are about the upcoming elections as they aim to break the GOP's supermajorities. And of course, Democrats must first have someone on the ballot to be able to take advantage of any late-breaking developments that hurt Republican frontrunners in more winnable districts.

Obituaries

● George Nethercutt: George Nethercutt, the Washington Republican who famously unseated Democratic House Speaker Tom Foley during the 1994 red wave, died Friday at the age of 79. Jim Camden of The Spokesman-Review details Nethercutt's rise, historic win, and failed 2004 campaign against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, in his obituary.

For decades politicos have snarked that Nethercutt owes his 51-49 victory over Foley to badly informed voters in eastern Washington who believed that Nethercutt would become speaker if he won, but did local voters actually say this at the time?

Quinn Yeargain does some election myth-busting and finds that journalist Cokie Roberts publicly said ahead of Election Day that internal polls showed that a significant number of respondents in Washington's 5th District thought whoever they elected would be speaker. But not only did Roberts acknowledge she hadn't seen these polls, it appears no one did because they didn't actually exist. "Many think area voters are hayseeds," Camden wrote in a contemporary piece about this still-repeated rumor.

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