A lot of voters could change their minds. This debate might do it for them
Thursday's inaugural presidential debate of the 2024 cycle is poised to be historic on multiple levels, but perhaps most notable is the level at which Americans plan to tune in. While a recent poll from the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found about 60% of U.S. adults very likely to watch the debate, a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday put the number of registered voters likely to watch at a gobsmacking 73%—nearly three-quarters of the electorate. But if the level of anticipated viewership is high, the stakes are even higher. The contest is virtually tied at the national level, which makes third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s absence in the debate an even bigger opportunity for President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Among the three men, the Quinnipiac poll found Kennedy supporters to be the voters most open to changing their mind. Overall, 16% of voters said they’re open to the possibility of switching candidates based on the debate performances of Biden and Trump. But nearly a third of RFK Jr. voters (32%) indicated they were open to changing their minds, compared with just 13% of Biden supporters and 12% of Trump supporters. "A change of heart or a dramatic shift in loyalty when the lights fade on the first debate? Not likely when it comes to Biden and Trump supporters," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. "But those currently supporting RFK, Jr. are a different story." Kennedy's candidacy has become a lightning rod of sorts among supporters of both Biden and Trump because it's unclear exactly which candidate he stands to hurt most. Some national polling indicates he hurts Trump more, while some state-level polling suggests he siphons more votes away from Biden. But what is undoubtedly true is that Biden has a higher ceiling than Trump, who's never cleared 47% of the national popular vote. So anything that undercuts Biden's ability to maximize his support is a risk worth taking for Trump. Historically, support for third-party candidates winnows down as Election Day draws closer and voters more clearly understand their choices and feel the potential impact of their vote. Thursday’s debate provides Biden and Trump with a prime opportunity to jumpstart that process and work it to their advantage. A meaningful portion of Kennedy supporters are already indicating they are prepared to jump ship and looking for reasons to do it. Daily Kos coverage of the debate begins Thursday at 9:00 PM ET—join us! Campaign Action
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Thursday's inaugural presidential debate of the 2024 cycle is poised to be historic on multiple levels, but perhaps most notable is the level at which Americans plan to tune in. While a recent poll from the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found about 60% of U.S. adults very likely to watch the debate, a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday put the number of registered voters likely to watch at a gobsmacking 73%—nearly three-quarters of the electorate.
But if the level of anticipated viewership is high, the stakes are even higher. The contest is virtually tied at the national level, which makes third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s absence in the debate an even bigger opportunity for President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Among the three men, the Quinnipiac poll found Kennedy supporters to be the voters most open to changing their mind. Overall, 16% of voters said they’re open to the possibility of switching candidates based on the debate performances of Biden and Trump. But nearly a third of RFK Jr. voters (32%) indicated they were open to changing their minds, compared with just 13% of Biden supporters and 12% of Trump supporters.
"A change of heart or a dramatic shift in loyalty when the lights fade on the first debate? Not likely when it comes to Biden and Trump supporters," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. "But those currently supporting RFK, Jr. are a different story."
Kennedy's candidacy has become a lightning rod of sorts among supporters of both Biden and Trump because it's unclear exactly which candidate he stands to hurt most. Some national polling indicates he hurts Trump more, while some state-level polling suggests he siphons more votes away from Biden.
But what is undoubtedly true is that Biden has a higher ceiling than Trump, who's never cleared 47% of the national popular vote. So anything that undercuts Biden's ability to maximize his support is a risk worth taking for Trump.
Historically, support for third-party candidates winnows down as Election Day draws closer and voters more clearly understand their choices and feel the potential impact of their vote. Thursday’s debate provides Biden and Trump with a prime opportunity to jumpstart that process and work it to their advantage. A meaningful portion of Kennedy supporters are already indicating they are prepared to jump ship and looking for reasons to do it.
Daily Kos coverage of the debate begins Thursday at 9:00 PM ET—join us! Campaign Action
