Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Time for a change?
Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet. Vanity Fair: RFK Jr.’s Family Doesn’t Want Him to Run. Even They May Not Know His Darkest Secrets. Last year Robert Kennedy Jr. texted a photograph to a friend. In the photo RFK Jr. was posing, alongside an unidentified woman, with the barbecued remains of what appears to be a dog. Kennedy told the person, who was traveling to Asia, that he might enjoy a restaurant in Korea that served dog on the menu, suggesting Kennedy had sampled dog. The photo was taken in 2010, according to the digital file’s metadata—the same year he was diagnosed with a dead tapeworm in his brain. (A veterinarian who examined the photograph says the carcass is a canine, pointing to the 13 pairs of ribs, which include the tell-tale “floating rib” found in dogs.) There’s a ton of opposition research on RFK Jr. that was dropped yesterday, perhaps to change the subject. But nothing is going to move the media off of whether Biden should drop out. And the stories are just getting more brutal by the day. Still, post-debate polling so far remains decidedly mixed and relatively unmoved. Add in that it will take another week to properly judge that (holiday + despondent democrats not answering polls). Biden had some good polls today: - Ipsos/Reuters 40%-40% - Biden gains 2 - TIPP 43%-41% - Biden gains 2 - Bullfinch PA Biden 45%-44% - 1st Biden lead in PA in some time Onward.......https://t.co/hivDnGnNQc— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) July 2, 2024 NOTUS: ‘This Is Not Going to Just Blow Over’: Debate Panic Hardens Into an Awkward Choice for Democrats The Democratic Party has divided into two camps: those resigned to Biden’s candidacy and those who think there’s still time to shake things up. Democrats in Washington are faced with two choices about their party’s ongoing panic this week: Ignore it or lean in... On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first Democrat in Congress to officially call on Biden to step down from his reelection campaign. And another House Democrat told NOTUS they expect many more Democratic lawmakers and donors “speaking out very soon.” “I’ve spoken to at least half a dozen colleagues who are getting near-unanimous feedback from their biggest supporters that an intervention is needed,” this lawmaker said. “Everyone has this feeling of dread that no one close to Biden will tell him the truth, and by the time the polling and everything else is obvious, it may be too late.” “This is not going to just blow over,” the Democratic member added, “and if it somehow does, then we’re really fucked.” So the choice the party has to make is is it going to be Biden or Harris. There’s no other reasonable choice. And that decision is coming sooner than you might think. Some of that aforementioned RFK Jr. opposition: Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s response to allegations of sexual assault of his children’s nanny: “I am not a church boy.” “I am who I am.” pic.twitter.com/NcPcv1p87q— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) July 2, 2024 David Frum/The Atlantic: Apocalypse Not The Democrats’ situation could be worse. If they’re not careful, it will be. I notice that when Democrats speculate about alternative tickets for this election, they speculate about pairings of presidential and vice-presidential nominees intended to excite different elements of the party base. But the Democratic Party does not have as singular a “base” as Republicans do. Educated urbanites are one Democratic base. Church-affiliated southern Black voters are a different Democratic base. Organized labor, especially in the industrial Midwest, is a third base. The Democrats are a coalition party, not a base party, and they need coalition leadership. That’s what Biden, for all of his evident frailties, has provided. And one reason so many ardent Democrats are ready to repudiate him now is that they do not like coalition leadership. The Democratic Party is basically a coalition of Jim Clyburn and people who obsess over the NYT/Siena poll.— Conor Sen (@conorsen) July 2, 2024 Lee Drutman/”Undercover Events” on Substack: The many uncertainties of saying good Biden Sometimes the risk of staying the course is greater than changing the course. Here’s how I’m thinking about the choice Democrats have to make, and the consequences for 2024 and beyond. Uncertainty #1A What are Biden’s Chances? Let’s start with a baseline of where the election is now, and a frank assessment of Biden’s chances as of today. And as of today, Biden is losing. Biden has continually trailed in polls, both nationally, and in the key swing states. Based on current polling, Biden would lose the presidential election if it were held today. Of course, it will be close. And polling four months out is no guarantee of anything. Polls might be off. Things could change. Here are our first uncertainties
JoriPress
Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.
RFK Jr.’s Family Doesn’t Want Him to Run. Even They May Not Know His Darkest Secrets.
Last year Robert Kennedy Jr. texted a photograph to a friend. In the photo RFK Jr. was posing, alongside an unidentified woman, with the barbecued remains of what appears to be a dog. Kennedy told the person, who was traveling to Asia, that he might enjoy a restaurant in Korea that served dog on the menu, suggesting Kennedy had sampled dog. The photo was taken in 2010, according to the digital file’s metadata—the same year he was diagnosed with a dead tapeworm in his brain. (A veterinarian who examined the photograph says the carcass is a canine, pointing to the 13 pairs of ribs, which include the tell-tale “floating rib” found in dogs.)
There’s a ton of opposition research on RFK Jr. that was dropped yesterday, perhaps to change the subject. But nothing is going to move the media off of whether Biden should drop out. And the stories are just getting more brutal by the day.
Still, post-debate polling so far remains decidedly mixed and relatively unmoved. Add in that it will take another week to properly judge that (holiday + despondent democrats not answering polls).
‘This Is Not Going to Just Blow Over’: Debate Panic Hardens Into an Awkward Choice for Democrats
The Democratic Party has divided into two camps: those resigned to Biden’s candidacy and those who think there’s still time to shake things up.
Democrats in Washington are faced with two choices about their party’s ongoing panic this week: Ignore it or lean in...
On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first Democrat in Congress to officially call on Biden to step down from his reelection campaign. And another House Democrat told NOTUS they expect many more Democratic lawmakers and donors “speaking out very soon.”
“I’ve spoken to at least half a dozen colleagues who are getting near-unanimous feedback from their biggest supporters that an intervention is needed,” this lawmaker said. “Everyone has this feeling of dread that no one close to Biden will tell him the truth, and by the time the polling and everything else is obvious, it may be too late.”
“This is not going to just blow over,” the Democratic member added, “and if it somehow does, then we’re really fucked.”
So the choice the party has to make is is it going to be Biden or Harris. There’s no other reasonable choice. And that decision is coming sooner than you might think.
Some of that aforementioned RFK Jr. opposition:
David Frum/The Atlantic:
Apocalypse Not
The Democrats’ situation could be worse. If they’re not careful, it will be.
I notice that when Democrats speculate about alternative tickets for this election, they speculate about pairings of presidential and vice-presidential nominees intended to excite different elements of the party base. But the Democratic Party does not have as singular a “base” as Republicans do.
Educated urbanites are one Democratic base. Church-affiliated southern Black voters are a different Democratic base. Organized labor, especially in the industrial Midwest, is a third base. The Democrats are a coalition party, not a base party, and they need coalition leadership.
That’s what Biden, for all of his evident frailties, has provided. And one reason so many ardent Democrats are ready to repudiate him now is that they do not like coalition leadership.
Lee Drutman/”Undercover Events” on Substack:
The many uncertainties of saying good Biden
Sometimes the risk of staying the course is greater than changing the course. Here’s how I’m thinking about the choice Democrats have to make, and the consequences for 2024 and beyond.
Uncertainty #1A What are Biden’s Chances?
Let’s start with a baseline of where the election is now, and a frank assessment of Biden’s chances as of today.
And as of today, Biden is losing.
Biden has continually trailed in polls, both nationally, and in the key swing states. Based on current polling, Biden would lose the presidential election if it were held today.
Of course, it will be close. And polling four months out is no guarantee of anything. Polls might be off. Things could change. Here are our first uncertainties:
Hillary Frey/Slate:
We Can’t Unsee What We Saw
The debate was bad. The spin is somehow even worse.
But even worse than those unbearable 90 minutes has been the spin that followed. Democratic operatives and Biden’s friends in high places came to his defense; Barack Obama himself brushed off the president’s dismal performance, posting on Twitter that “bad debate nights happen.” C’mon. Yes, a bad debate night happened to Obama when he was running again in 2012. A bad debate night is not what happened last week.
Pushing this line is offensive, and contemptuous of the American voting public. Everyone saw the same debate: It was reality rubbing human mortality in our faces. Biden is old, and the process of his aging seems to be accelerating, as it is wont to do. We all know old people. We know how different the 60s are from the 70s, and the 70s are from the 80s. We’ve all witnessed the decline that comes in the slow march toward the end, likely in circumstances that were unbelievably personal and sorrowful. What I am trying to say is: We know what we saw last Thursday. And like those relationship-changing texts and bad test results, we cannot unsee what we saw.
Choose your adventure:
Or:
David Dayen/The American Prospect:
Campaign Finance Laws Give Harris Big Boost in Biden Dropout Scenario
If Biden were to withdraw his candidacy, only Kamala Harris could seamlessly use funds raised by the Biden-Harris campaign committee.
My sense in talking with people in a position to know is that it would take much more than what has already happened in public to get Biden to drop out. Team Biden surely hopes that the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling creates a “rally round the leader” effect that will continue to fade memories of a president who was wildly inarticulate and frail in a pressure scenario just five days ago.
That hasn’t stopped the endless fantasy league scenarios from those who see no avenue for Biden to defeat Donald Trump in November. Among these ideas is the concept of a quick-strike primary, just for Democratic National Convention delegates, leading up to an open convention at the DNC in Chicago in August. The Biden camp has actually engaged with this, warning of “chaos” if the president were to withdraw.
This is a tremendous insult to Kamala Harris, who Biden himself handpicked as his second in command. If the obvious line of succession from President to Vice President is not possible because of Harris’ presumed deficiencies, what does that say about the man who chose her? Or is it maybe why he chose her, to insulate himself from attack?
But all of this talk, and everyone’s feelings about Harris’s chances in a general election, is missing something: the main Biden campaign committee has raised hundreds of millions of dollars for the presidential election, invested in staff and booked airtime across the country. And the only person under campaign finance law who would be able to seamlessly continue to use that money for the general election is his ticket mate, Kamala Harris.
Robert Kuttner/The American Prospect:
The French Disconnection
France’s voters have a bare chance of keeping the far right from power, if the center and left can manage to cooperate.
As the whole world knows, French President Emmanuel Macron’s impulsive gamble of calling snap elections backfired spectacularly. The Rassemblement National (RN) party of Marine Le Pen captured one third of the votes, well ahead of both the leftwing New Popular Front coalition, with 28 percent and Macron’s own party, which finished a weak third with 22.
Whether this translates into an absolute parliamentary majority in next Sunday’s runoff and the first neo-fascist government since Vichy, or just a hung parliament and a likely technocratic prime minister, depends entirely on whether the fragmented center and the not-quite-so-fragmented left can put aside their vanities and agree on tactics.
The French system provides that any candidate who gains at least 12.5 percent of the vote makes it to next Sunday’s runoff. Normally, most runoffs are two-way contests. But because of the far larger than usual turnout, about 67 percent, as well as fewer than usual candidates due to the New Popular Front coalition, in this election there could be as many as 300 three-way runoffs, more than half of the National Assembly. If most candidates who qualify for runoffs stay in, that divides the non-RN vote and the RN will win an absolute majority and form the next government. If those candidates withdraw, it’s a much closer question.
The left is committed to drop out of they are in third. Some Macronists will and some won’t. Fingers crossed, that’s the strategy to save the Republic. It won’t be saved by Macron.
An Italian leftist paper with a dim view of Macron.
Camille Squires/Bolts magazine:
“Designed to be Cruel”: How Grants Pass Will Ramp Up the Policing of Homelessness
The Supreme Court blessed bans on sleeping outdoors. In a Bolts roundtable, three experts explain that this may encourage aggressive policing over long-term housing solutions.
The ruling overturns several decisions by the Ninth Circuit, which covers western states, including Oregon and California. In Martin v. Boise, the Ninth Circuit held in 2018 that cities cannot punish people for sleeping outside without providing adequate shelter options. The Ninth Circuit then reinforced that decision in 2022 when it struck down Grants Pass’ camping ban, siding with the plaintiffs.
These rulings had put in place some protections from aggressive sweeps of homeless encampments in western states. But a vast suite of public officials, including many Democrats, asked the Supreme Court to lift those protections. The court obliged last week.
Hours after the decision, Bolts held a roundtable discussion on what the ruling means with three people who have closely studied the effects of camping bans: Charley Willison, an assistant professor of public health at Cornell University who studies public health and political responses to homelessness; Chris Herring, an assistant professor of Sociology at UCLA who has researched the criminalization of homelessness in liberal California cities; and Eric Tars, senior policy director at the National Homelessness Law Center, a national advocacy organization that filed an amicus brief in the Grants Pass case in favor of striking down the city’s policy.
