What Trump is looking for in a VP is not a replacement

Donald Trump is indulging his second-rate reality show roots by declaring that he will name his running mate at the Republican National Convention—an appearance that could be coming live from Rikers Island. 

According to most news outlets, the list of potential vice presidential candidates holds eight names. But based on a flurry of behind-the-scenes paperwork, four are thought to be in the lead: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. 

When most presidential candidates go shopping for a running mate, there are a couple of qualifications at the top of the list. First, they seek out someone who bolsters them in some critical political area—more liberal, more conservative, from a swing state, etc. That political boost is often the most important factor because it doesn’t matter what wonderful ideas you might have if you can’t win the election.

Second, most presidential candidates look for someone who could step up to lead the party, keep policy moving in the right direction, and sustain their legacy when they're no longer behind the Resolute Desk. They look for someone who might not agree with them on every issue but is simpatico in the broad scope. 

But these are not Trump’s concerns. He's not looking for a replacement because he never expects to be replaced. Still, he does have some very big items on his shopping list.

For Trump, a qualified vice presidential  candidate has to meet three criteria: 

1. Surrogacy: How well can they praise Trump on any occasion, defend him to the news media, deflect any real concern, and never ever seem to have a thought of their own? How easily does the term “fake news media” roll off their lips when dealing with a persistent reporter? How quick are they to grab any good news and attribute it to Trump’s brilliance? Being a walking “Donald Trump is my god” yard sign is 99.4% of the job, so this is very important. Anything that resembles a personality or charisma is a negative factor.

2. Subservience: How well can they imitate a wet mop, giving Trump the instant compliance he wants without ever being caught up with concerns about legality, morality, etc.? This is where Mike Pence failed. When it comes to being a Trump surrogate, it might not be possible to do better than Pence—a blank, extremely white screen onto which any Trump thought could be projected. But Pence had a critical flaw. It turned out that some portion of his pretense at morality was real. Sure, it was just a tiny thing, one that allowed Pence to look right past Trump’s demeaning of veterans, abuse of immigrants, and giggle sessions with authoritarian dictators. But when it came down to taking part in an attempt to overthrow the country, Pence, um, quailed. Pence set a pretty low bar, but every single potential Trump vice president for 2024 will be required to limbo cleanly under that bar. 

3. Sacrifice: Finally, a Trump vice president has to be ready to jump in to take a bullet at any time, whether literal or metaphorical. When the pitchforks inevitably come out or the next angry, insurrectionist mob with a mobile gallows comes calling, how willing is the would-be veep to place their body between the pointy ends and Trump? Because, when it comes down to it, every authoritarian leader needs to have an escape plan. People who can be tossed behind them to slow down the chase are vital.

With these three critical factors in mind, here’s how Rubio, Vance, Burgum, and Scott are shaping up.

Rubio is leaning heavily on the idea that Trump needs him to add a dash of not-so-obviously-a-white-supremacist-movement to the ticket. It’s not clear that anything other than his Cuban heritage has elevated Rubio from the ranks of the perpetually derided “Little Marco.” 

But at the moment, Rubio seems short on surrogacy. He’s been reluctant to completely ditch his day job and go on the road as a part of Trump’s traveling praise chorus. While other candidates seem happy to toady in ways that would embarrass actual toads (looking at you, Tim Scott), Rubio seems to believe in satisfying the more traditional qualifications of being helpful to the ticket and qualified to step in. It’s not that he doesn’t get on Fox News and praise Trump, he just hasn’t made that the core of his being.

Scott is at the far end of the spectrum. He is absolutely excelling at surrogacy. He has taken to surrogacy as if his soul had been sucked out by a rabid Roomba. There is so little left inside that he can’t answer any question if the answer doesn’t come in the form of repeating a Trump talking point. 

He's even giving a preview of sacrifice by taking anything that looks like self-respect or dignity and impaling it on a giant spike. Nothing any other candidate has done has been half as iconic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaKgaUpW_RQ&t=7s

Vance has also been out there demonstrating his skills as a Trump surrogate. But Vance has a flaw: He thinks he’s smart. He has his own book to promote, and his own ideas. Some have also looked at him as a logical successor to Trump. 

These are definitely negative points for Vance. Trump doesn’t want anyone whose worldview doesn’t center on Trump, and he definitely doesn’t want his cabinet eyeing someone as a an acceptable substitute. Unless Vance has some other redeeming quality (is he really bad at golf? That might help), he’s probably at the bottom of the shortlist.

Burgum is … there. Apparently, North Dakota runs on autopilot because the governor can practically live at Mar-a-Lago and join Trump on his plane more often than Jeffery Epstein. 

Burgum has been serving as a regular warm-up act at Trump rallies. He’s clearly willing to spend all of his time standing next to Trump in the endless shrimp line, but his total value seems to end at his not-all-that-deep pockets and the perception that he will never, ever upstage Trump.

Honestly, that might be enough.

It’s tough to rank the final four right now, and it’s also somewhat pointless. It’s not as if Trump’s running mate will be allowed to bring any of their own ideas or hold any influence should Trump regain the White House.

And even though these four have been named as the most likely suspects, Trump continues to respond favorably to every name that’s brought up to him when a Republican says something he likes. Isn’t that right, Tom Cotton?

And Trump could always just declare that he’s choosing Omarosa. After all, they have history, chemistry, and so much in common. Campaign Action