Switching out Biden won't save Democrats from its critics
My position is that President Joe Biden and his team crapped the bed at the debate, and it’s on them to fix it. I don’t think that’s an impossible task, even with the current pearl-clutching on the left. We’re in July, few are paying attention, and the Republican convention starts soon on July 15, which will pull attention toward Donald Trump. What’s particularly strange, however, is the belief that things would be fixed with a not-Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Anyone who believes that is, unfortunately, beyond naive. Vice President Kamala Harris, the obvious candidate in any replacement scenario, would certainly not get a clean slate to work with. The media is already Hillary’ing her. Me on a hurdle for VP Harris: "She has been one of the main public validators of [Biden's] health. You remember after the Hur report, she went out there and said he is with it, he is commanding everything in the room. She is going to have to sit down & answer tough questions." pic.twitter.com/MLoKDamdiK— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) July 5, 2024 “But did she know about Biden” will be the “but her emails” of 2024. And that’s before she would begin facing the inevitable racist and sexist attacks you know will be coming from the right … and the left (“she was a cop!”). The reality, as David Roberts notes in this great thread, is that too many people are rewarded for shitting on Democrats. For centrists, journalists, pundits, *even Dem electeds*, the way you prove you are a Reasonable, Serious Person in DC is by shitting on Dems. For the left, the way you prove you are a true radical is by shitting on Dems. For the right ... well, obviously. This is so objectively true it hurts. We’ve seen it with the performative left going after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently, instead of focusing that energy on the real threats on the right. It is also why conservatives work the media refs so hard, to the point that traditional journalists internalize the claim that they are “liberal media.” As a result, those journalists prove their “fair and balanced” bona fides by skewing their coverage against Democrats. This is all Modern American Politics 101 stuff. Aside from a few anomalies (like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, hated in her caucus), Republicans don’t have this problem. They have a convicted felon leading their ticket, yet they know to focus their attacks against Democrats. (Note that even Biden, on stage with Trump, couldn’t bring himself to drive home the convicted-felon attack against Trump other than that single time. The journalists asking the questions certainly couldn’t.) Everyone's professional incentives are to shit on Dems. Dwelling on Trump & his fascist movement -- however justified by the objective facts -- just doesn't bring that juice, doesn't get the clicks & the high-fives, doesn't feel brave & iconoclastic. It's just ... no fun. So, say Biden stepped aside in favor of Harris tomorrow. How long until the vapid gossips we call political reporters find something wrong with her, some alleged flaw they just have to write 192 stories about? How long until the hopped-up mediocrities we call pundits find some "counter-intuitive" reason that the new Dem ticket is flawed after all? How long until the irredentist left gets over the temporary thrill of its new Harris memes & remembers that she's a cop & turns on her? How long before the ambient racism & misogyny in the US lead center-leftists to conclude that, sure, they'd support a black woman, just not *this* black woman? In other words: how long before everyone reverts to their comfortable, familiar identity & narratives? About 30 f'ing seconds, is my guess. Thirty seconds sounds about right. We’re not in a great position right now, but the best time for Biden to deal with this is now, in the middle of the summer holiday season when the last thing people want to think about is politics. Biden can step aside, but here’s what will happen: instead of a few weeks of self-induced Democrats-in-disarray chaos, we will have two months of drama as Democrats fight over who the nominee will be. Trump will be forgotten in that noise. That gets us to the August convention, at the end of the month. Then it will be September, and the new nominee will face a few more months of “vetting” by the national media, until the end of October. Trump will be forgotten in that noise. And then, people will vote, having mostly forgotten about Trump. All thanks to Democrats’ inability to keep their eye on the ball. THAT is the scenario that keeps me up at night.
JoriPress
My position is that President Joe Biden and his team crapped the bed at the debate, and it’s on them to fix it. I don’t think that’s an impossible task, even with the current pearl-clutching on the left. We’re in July, few are paying attention, and the Republican convention starts soon on July 15, which will pull attention toward Donald Trump.
What’s particularly strange, however, is the belief that things would be fixed with a not-Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Anyone who believes that is, unfortunately, beyond naive.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the obvious candidate in any replacement scenario, would certainly not get a clean slate to work with. The media is already Hillary’ing her.
“But did she know about Biden” will be the “but her emails” of 2024. And that’s before she would begin facing the inevitable racist and sexist attacks you know will be coming from the right … and the left (“she was a cop!”).
The reality, as David Roberts notes in this great thread, is that too many people are rewarded for shitting on Democrats.
For centrists, journalists, pundits, *even Dem electeds*, the way you prove you are a Reasonable, Serious Person in DC is by shitting on Dems. For the left, the way you prove you are a true radical is by shitting on Dems. For the right ... well, obviously.
This is so objectively true it hurts. We’ve seen it with the performative left going after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently, instead of focusing that energy on the real threats on the right.
It is also why conservatives work the media refs so hard, to the point that traditional journalists internalize the claim that they are “liberal media.” As a result, those journalists prove their “fair and balanced” bona fides by skewing their coverage against Democrats. This is all Modern American Politics 101 stuff.
Aside from a few anomalies (like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, hated in her caucus), Republicans don’t have this problem. They have a convicted felon leading their ticket, yet they know to focus their attacks against Democrats. (Note that even Biden, on stage with Trump, couldn’t bring himself to drive home the convicted-felon attack against Trump other than that single time. The journalists asking the questions certainly couldn’t.)
Everyone's professional incentives are to shit on Dems. Dwelling on Trump & his fascist movement -- however justified by the objective facts -- just doesn't bring that juice, doesn't get the clicks & the high-fives, doesn't feel brave & iconoclastic. It's just ... no fun.
So, say Biden stepped aside in favor of Harris tomorrow. How long until the vapid gossips we call political reporters find something wrong with her, some alleged flaw they just have to write 192 stories about? How long until the hopped-up mediocrities we call pundits find some "counter-intuitive" reason that the new Dem ticket is flawed after all? How long until the irredentist left gets over the temporary thrill of its new Harris memes & remembers that she's a cop & turns on her? How long before the ambient racism & misogyny in the US lead center-leftists to conclude that, sure, they'd support a black woman, just not *this* black woman? In other words: how long before everyone reverts to their comfortable, familiar identity & narratives? About 30 f'ing seconds, is my guess.
Thirty seconds sounds about right.
We’re not in a great position right now, but the best time for Biden to deal with this is now, in the middle of the summer holiday season when the last thing people want to think about is politics.
Biden can step aside, but here’s what will happen: instead of a few weeks of self-induced Democrats-in-disarray chaos, we will have two months of drama as Democrats fight over who the nominee will be. Trump will be forgotten in that noise. That gets us to the August convention, at the end of the month.
Then it will be September, and the new nominee will face a few more months of “vetting” by the national media, until the end of October. Trump will be forgotten in that noise.
And then, people will vote, having mostly forgotten about Trump. All thanks to Democrats’ inability to keep their eye on the ball.
THAT is the scenario that keeps me up at night.
