Poll: Voters approve of Trump conviction, half of indies want him to drop out

The punditry, propelled by a thousand conservative gaslighters, want you to believe that Donald Trump’s felony conviction is good for his campaign. According to them, the conviction is energizing Trump supporters and helping him raise money.  The latter point might or might not be true, but does anyone think that Trump supporters need to be “energized”? That’s not who will decide the election. His rabid 20-30% of dead-enders will vote no matter what. This election will be decided on the margins, and that’s where Trump’s felony conviction comes in. The key question is, will the conviction bring out Trump voters that otherwise would’ve stayed home (or voted for President Joe Biden), or does it suppress his potential supporters. A post-verdict Morning Consult poll has bad news for Trump. Among the poll’s findings:  A clear majority, 54%, approve of the jury’s decision to convict Trump on 34 felony charges for his 2016 hush money scheme with adult actress Stormy Daniels. If the poll is accurate, that means that for Trump to win, he would have to win the votes of people who think he’s a criminal, and are happy he was convicted. Only 34% “strongly” or “somewhat” disapprove. That is, the Republicans losing their minds over the conviction are only a third of voters, a distinct minority.  The pollsters says that “just 15% of Republican voters nationwide want Trump to drop his White House bid, a bit higher than the 8% of Trump supporters who said the same.” Excuse me? “Just”? This is a tight election! The fact that 8% of Trump voters want him to drop out is incredible! Throw in another 7% of likely Nikki Haley voters, and that’s a real number of energy-suppressing dissatisfied Republicans. That’s not to say that Biden doesn’t have similar challenges, but it’s okay if they offset. A whopping 49% of independents think he should end his campaign.  The question of prison time is more polarizing: Just 44% think he should go to prison, while 49% would prefer probation.  The poll continues to have the race tied: Biden 45, Trump 44. Do some math—54 approve of the conviction, which means that Trump has perhaps two more points to grow, assuming people who consider him a criminal and are happy he was convicted don’t end up supporting him. How percentage of the vote did he get in 2020? 46.8%. In 2016 he got 46.1%. That means he’s still capped at around 46%!  My theory of the 2024 presidential race is this: Trump has never gotten 47% of the popular vote, and he’s done nothing to expand his support. Quite the opposite, actually. In contrast, Hillary Clinton got 48.2% in 2016, and Biden got 51.3% in 2020. When the votes are counted, Biden will be in that territory.  The wild card is the third party vote, which could have an impact on the margins. Will Robert Kennedy Jr. end up getting a significant number of votes, and if so, where will they fall? (He’s still running a Republican Trump-defending campaign, and the data suggests he’ll hurt Trump more.) Also, we all know this isn’t a national election, so the small handful of battleground states will have outsized importance. So this isn’t a done deal.  But this poll is further evidence of what I’ve been saying, that Trump has a serious math problem, and despite some bizarre punditry chatter, Trump’s felony conviction does nothing to help that math.  Quite the opposite, actually.  No criminals in the White House! Donate now to make sure Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump!