OPINION: Why Uganda’s Oil Story Is Incomplete Without President Museveni.

By Dr. Fred Kabagambe-Kaliisa

Veteran Ugandan journalist Mr. Tonny Owana recently shared a 1980 article by Ilakut Ben Bella, first published in The Uganda Times, highlighting early discoveries of Uganda’s oil potential. The article discusses Mr. George Ivan Smith, an Australian and former UN Envoy, who reportedly uncovered documents pointing to “huge oil reserves in Uganda”.  These findings, the article claims, were suppressed due to political pressure from powerful British oil interests.

It also refers to Libya’s Col. Muammar Gaddafi offering $3 billion to halt the oil development, and Shell’s early drilling activities in the 1930s, which ultimately were left unpursued.

Mr. Owana’s post of the historical article reignited debate. Some have questioned whether President Yoweri Museveni and his government truly deserve credit for Uganda’s oil and gas achievements, arguing that the resource had long been known before the NRM came to power.

But there is a need to set the record straight.

Uganda’s oil journey requires perspective. It cannot be reduced to historical evidence of oil seepages or the early exploration efforts. The true story lies in the policy direction and focused leadership that turned latent potential into a transformative national asset.

Oil seepages in Uganda were first documented in 1925 by Government Geologist Edward James Wayland in the Albertine Graben. Shallow wells were drilled between 1936 and 1956 by the African–European Investment Company. Further surveys by the Geological Surveys and Mines Department continued into the 1950s. However, due to colonial policy shifts and lack of commercial success, these efforts were eventually abandoned.

The turning point came in 1986, when President Museveni assumed office. At the time, Uganda had only one petroleum expert, an economist at the Bank of Uganda, dealing with petroleum products permitting.

Shell approached the new government seeking a licence for the entire Albertine Graben. President Museveni asked whether Uganda had the technical capacity to manage such a resource.  When informed of our limitations, he took decisive action.

On 10^th February 1986, I attended a meeting convened by the President. Also present were Janet Opio, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry, and Saul Mboijana, the Acting Commissioner for Geological Surveys and Mines. At the time, I was serving as Head of the Petroleum Unit.

The President directed us to suspend the Shell and Exxon Mobil bids. Instead, we were to prioritise training of Petroleum Unit staff alongside recruiting young professionals and strengthen the Department of Geological Surveys with capacity and infrastructure. He issued an Executive Order exempting the oil and gas sector from bureaucratic delays, an early sign of his commitment to transform the sector.

That decision changed everything.   

Later that year, Mr. Reuben Kashambuzi and I, who were at that time in the Geological Survey and Mines Department, were sent to the Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and the University of Aberdeen in Scotland, respectively, to undertake postgraduate studies in petroleum geosciences. 

Upon returning in 1987, we oversaw the collection and interpretation of geological, magnetic and gravity data, which was packaged and used to promote the country’s petroleum potential.  This promotion led to the attraction of companies like Heritage, Hardman, Energy Africa, and Tullow Oil, which invested in the more expensive petroleum exploration efforts in the country, such as drilling wells. These modern and consistent efforts, which President Museveni supported, culminated in the discovery of commercially viable oil reserves in the country on 6^th January 2006. It is important to point out that it is the confirmation of the commerciality of the reserves discovered, and not the mere sighting of oil seepages and the potential reported previously, as shown in the article, that makes a complete story of Uganda’s oil journey.

The efforts that followed built steadily on this foundation. These included the development of the 2008 National Oil and Gas Policy and the enactment of new petroleum legislation in 2013. In 2015, robust national institutions were established to ensure efficient management of the oil and gas industry. The Government also maintained a safe and conducive investment environment. In parallel, it advanced oil and gas commercialisation infrastructure, most notably the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. Together, these milestones are a testament to the focused leadership that the NRM Government has consistently provided to Uganda’s oil and gas sector over the years. There are many parts of the world where seepages of oil are sighted but no commercially viable oil reserves are established.

So yes, oil (or more appropriately, petroleum potential) may have been noted before 1986. But without the political will, technical investment, and long-term guidance and support championed by President Yoweri Museveni and the NRM Government, Uganda’s oil would have remained just that, a note in an old geological survey.

At a recent funeral of my late neighbour, Patrick Jolly Baguma, I had a conversation with Rtd. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, the leader of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), and Hon. Wadri Kassiono. Our meeting was a bit nostalgic for me because I first met Wadri back in the mid-1970s when he was a young pupil at Pokea Seminary, and at the time, his sister was my secretary while I served as Provincial Geologist of Nile Province. During the funeral, Gen. Muntu gave a moving and eloquent eulogy, but he also cautioned that Uganda could fall victim to the “oil curse” like some countries. I could not let that statement go unchallenged, so I told him that Uganda has strong policies and laws, including the Petroleum Fund, designed to safeguard the sector. He countered that such safeguards could be removed just as term limits once were, but I emphasised the importance of evidence. Having personally visited countries affected by the “oil curse”, I have seen their struggles first-hand. By contrast, Uganda’s oil revenues are already being directed into the Petroleum Fund and invested in tangible public works such as roads and the new Kabalega International Airport in the oil region. I concluded by telling them that if money is ever diverted from its intended purpose, it is the duty of the people’s representatives not to remain silent but to demand accountability.

Dr. Fred Kabagambe-Kaliisa is a Senior Presidential Advisor for Energy, Minning and Petroleum.