Morning Digest: This Delaware Democrat is poised to make history—again—after opponent drops out

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● DE-AL: Former Delaware State Housing Authority director Eugene Young announced Wednesday that he was dropping out of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, leaving state Sen. Sarah McBride on a glide path to become the first openly trans person to ever serve in Congress.

Young, who had the support of Gov. John Carney, was the only notable candidate vying with McBride for the Democratic nomination to replace Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester as Delaware's lone House member. (Blunt Rochester is all but assured of making history herself as both the first woman and first African American to ever represent the state in the Senate.) Still, he faced a tough battle against McBride, who ended March with a huge $1.9 million to $400,000 advantage in cash on hand.

The First State's candidate filing deadline—which is always one of the latest in the nation—isn't until July 9, but it would be a huge surprise if any serious candidates entered the primary with so little time left on the clock. And given Delaware's reliably blue lean, the Democratic nominee is all but assured victory in the general election, especially in a year when favorite son Joe Biden is leading the ticket.

McBride won elected office for the first time in 2020 at the age of 30 when she became the first openly trans person to serve in the upper chamber of any state legislature. (Fellow Democrat Danica Roem became the second following her victory last year for a state Senate seat in Virginia.)

Describing that first campaign on "The Downballot" podcast last year, McBride said she "knew that the focus in the media was going to be around the uniqueness of my candidacy and the historic nature of the campaign." As a consequence, she knew she would "have to go out of my way to reinforce for folks that the most formative experience in my life is not my gender identity." That event, she explained, was her role in caring for her husband, who died after a battle with oral cancer.

While her gender identity remained a focus of media attention, McBride said that it "almost never came up on the campaign trail, and in the few instances where it came up, a smaller portion of those few instances were people with just genuinely earnest questions."

The state senator, when asked about her potential to make history at a time when Republicans are making opposition to trans rights a central part of their agenda, responded, "I think there's an important role that each person can have in Congress to push back. And I think without, though, a trans voice helping that effort, there's a lot of potential that's not met."

McBride is now poised to win a seat in Congress, a victory she said she hopes will pave the way to more electoral success for other trans people.

"[T]he only way I can truly do right by the trans community is first and foremost just to be the best member of Congress or the best state senator that I can be," she said. "And that will go a long way implicitly in pushing back, but also helping to create more doors and more opportunities for more trans people to serve in Congress because one out of 435 is still not representative of the population as a whole."

The Downballot

● Holy moly! Ohio Democrats just turned in an astounding special election performance on Tuesday night—in a conservative rural district they had no reason to think would be favorable in any way. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss what it means on this week's episode of "The Downballot," including why it's a bad idea to ignore the warning signs that special elections writ large are flashing for Republicans.

We also recap some wild GOP primaries in South Carolina and explain why Democrats should not challenge a successful ballot measure in North Dakota that would bar octogenarians from serving in Congress.

Our guest this week is Pete Maysmith, who runs political campaigns for the League of Conservation Voters, one of the leading environmental organizations in the country. Maysmith tells us about the top environmental issues that motivate voters—and why LCV is also happy to highlight other topics, like the cost of insulin, if it'll help climate champions win. He also zooms in on several of LCV's key target races this fall and explains how addressing climate change can be a winning issue even on red turf.

Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by Thursday afternoon. New episodes every Thursday morning!

Senate

● FL-Sen, FL State Senate: Former Rep. Alan Grayson has dropped out of the Aug. 20 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, and the perennial candidate will instead run for an open seat in the state Senate. Grayson was a non-factor in the primary to take on GOP Sen. Rick Scott, where former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the frontrunner.

However, Grayson might have more success in the 25th State Senate District, which favored Joe Biden 59-40 according to VEST data on Dave's Redistricting App. The primary to replace term-limited state Sen. Victor Torres already includes state Rep. Kristen Arrington and community leader Carmen Torres, the incumbent's wife. It only takes a plurality to win primaries in the Sunshine State.

Governors

● NJ-Gov: Politico's Matt Friedman reports that his sources believe that Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, who leads the powerful New Jersey Education Association, could enter the 2025 Democratic primary for governor "imminently." They noted that the NJEA recently asked the announced candidates to appear before its screening committee with just one week's notice, a move that appears to be, in Friedman's words, aimed at "covering itself to ultimately endorse its own president while saying it considered others."

The Democratic field to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy already includes Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Friedman anticipates that two more big names, Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, will announce they're in after they're reelected in November even though they're already "all-but-running."

House

● AZ-08: Venture capitalist Blake Masters is continuing to air Islamophobic TV ads against his 2022 ticketmate and former friend, Trump-backed attorney Abe Hamadeh, in the ugly July 30 Republican primary. Hamadeh, for his part, is using his own messaging to accuse Masters of living at a "nudist vegan communte" and playing on a college women's basketball team.

Master's newest spot, which AdImpact says is his first to air on broadcast TV, once again utilizes a photo that depicts Hamadeh in Mecca, a picture the Arizona Republic's Sabine Martin writes was taken while Hamadeh was deployed with the Army.

The narrator also cites an internet comment that Hamadeh wrote as a teenager in 2009 to make the case that the candidate, who is the son of immigrants from Syria, "claimed that America was founded on Islamic principles." (NOTUS' Tara Kavaler writes that Hamadeh "identifies culturally as Druze and Muslim.")

Hamadeh himself has been running digital ads accusing Masters of being a "leftist" who "lived in a nudist vegan communte whose members led pro-Hamas riots" and "played on the Stanford women's basketball team." (The latter charge is also accompanied by a photo of Masters in a jersey alongside a female player.) A spokesperson for Masters, who was one of several men who played as practice opponents for the women's basketball team, denied all of this.

Martin writes that, while he was in college in the 2000s, Masters lived at a residency called Columbae that calls itself a "vegetarian, social justice-focused co-op run on the principle of consensus." The Stanford Daily published an article in 2013 saying that Columbae was one of the co-opts "known for their openness to baring skin, to the extent of hosting various clothing-optional events."

Masters, though, is using considerably more money than Hamadeh to get his message out. AdImpact said Wednesday that Masters has outspent his main rival $608,000 to $224,000 for advertising. State House Speaker Ben Toma, who has retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko's endorsement, is a distant third at $55,000.

● MI-10: The state Court of Appeals has rejected Wayne State University Board of Governors member Anil Kumar's lawsuit to reverse his disqualification from the Aug. 6 Democratic primary ballot over insufficient petition signatures. Kumar, who was challenging GOP Rep. John James, finished the first quarter with $1 million cash on hand after self-funding most of his campaign, which was more than all his primary opponents combined.

● NH-02: Wealthy businessman Bill Hamlen finally announced Tuesday that he was running to seek the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in New Hampshire's 2nd District.

Hamlen set up an account with the FEC all the way back in early April and even appeared at campaign events—albeit not always in the right district. The NH Journal's Evan Lips, however, wrote in late May that he still wouldn't "confirm on the record" he was in, and that state of affairs continued until this week.

Hamlen joins a GOP primary that includes another affluent businessman, Vikram Mansharamani. Few other Republicans have publicly expressed interest in running, and any other late entrants would only have until Friday's filing deadline to join the race for a seat that Joe Biden carried 54-45 in 2020.

● NY-16: Westchester County Executive George Latimer on Wednesday picked up the support of Hillary Clinton, whose Chappaqua home is located in the neighboring 17th District. Clinton's message did not mention Rep. Jamaal Bowman, whom Latimer is challenging in the June 25 Democratic primary. It instead extolled the executive as someone who "will protect abortion rights, stand up to the NRA, and fight for President Biden’s agenda."

● Filing: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for Connecticut's Aug. 13 primary and for the Nov. 5 instant-runoff elections for local office in San Francisco, California, though there were no major surprise developments in either jurisdiction. We're still awaiting a list of contenders in Connecticut, while you can find a list of candidates in SF here.

Legislatures

● SC State Senate: Republican primary voters in South Carolina overwhelmingly voted to eject state Sen. Penry Gustafson, who was one of the three Republican "sister senators" who prevented the legislature from passing a near-total abortion ban last year. But while Gustafson was on the receiving end of an 82-18 rout at the hands of Lancaster County Councilman Allen Blackmon, the fates of her two compatriots are unresolved.

State Sen. Sandy Senn trails state Rep. Matt Leber 50.2-49.8 as of Wednesday afternoon―a margin of 31 votes―in a race the Associated Press has not yet called. An automatic recount will take place on Friday, but the AP's Jeffrey Collins was pessimistic about Senn's prospects. Collins noted that recounts in South Carolina "rarely alter a race by more than a few votes."

The third member of the group, state Sen. Katrina Shealy, outpaced attorney Carlisle Kennedy 40-36, but because neither captured a majority of the vote, they'll face off again in a June 25 runoff. Collins says that, should Shealy lose in two weeks, it's likely that a pair of Democrats would be the only women left in the 46-member upper chamber next year.

The three Republican senators were awarded the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award last year along with two colleagues, Democrat Margie Bright Matthews and independent Mia McLeod, for filibustering the leadership's anti-abortion law. (McLeod, who is a former Democrat, is not seeking reelection.) This small bloc was able to get the legislature to withdraw its plan that would have, in almost all cases, banned the procedure as soon as a pregnancy was detected.

Shealy unsuccessfully urged her colleagues to settle for a 12-week ban. "We in the South Carolina Legislature are not God," she said. "We do not know what’s going on in somebody else’s life. We do not have the right to make decisions for someone else." Gov. Henry McMaster ultimately signed a six-week ban into law.

The trio also faced a familiar redistricting-related obstacle. Gustafson was running in a seat that, under the latest map, was over 80% new to her. (South Carolina elects its state senators only in presidential cycles, so this is the first year where the new map is being used.)

Senn likewise campaigned for a revamped constituency, and her critics also faulted her for supporting gun safety legislation. The incumbent pushed back by focusing on allegations that Leber had once tried to convince his adopted daughter to get an abortion, an allegation he denies. Senn also reminded voters that Leber had been arrested for domestic violence in the early 2000s, but images of his mugshot don't appear to have been quite enough to sink him.

Shealy, for her part, is preparing for a tough runoff against Kennedy, arguing on election night, "We gotta take this crazy guy down, because he’s not nice and he’s really bad."

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Impact Research (D) and Fabrizio Ward (R) for the AARP: Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 45 (50-44 Trump in two-way, 45-37 Trump with third-party candidates)
• FL-Sen: Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Rick Scott (R-inc): 45, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 43 (49-43 Trump in two-way, 45-40 Trump with third-party candidates) (April: 53-36 Scott)
• PA-Sen: Marist College: Bob Casey (D-inc): 52, Dave McCormick (R): 46 (47-45 Trump with third-party candidates)
• AZ Abortion Amendment: Impact/Fabrizio for AARP: Yes: 59, No: 36

Ad Roundup

• NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R)
• NV-Sen: Duty First Nevada - pro-Sam Brown (R)
• WI-Sen: Fix Washington PAC - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) (part of $1.5 million buy)
• AZ-01: Conor O'Callaghan (D) (here and here); Andrei Cherny (D)
• CA-41: Will Rollins (D) (in Spanish, here and here)
• CO-04: Richard Holtorf (R)
• GA-03: Defend American Jobs - pro-Brian Jack (R)
• NY-24: Mario Fratto (R) - anti-Claudia Tenney (R-inc)
• SC-03: Sheri Biggs (R)