Morning Digest: Joe Arpaio's toxic legacy looms over the race for his old job

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: While it's been almost eight years since Joe Arpaio lost reelection as Maricopa County sheriff, the legacy of the Arizona Republican who spent decades as one of America's most venal and abusive law enforcement officials is playing a key role in both party's July 30 primaries for his old job. We'll start on the Democratic side, where appointed incumbent Russ Skinner is trying to turn back former Phoenix police officer Tyler Kamp. Skinner used last week's debate to emphasize his 34 years with the department, including as the top deputy to the previous sheriff, Democrat Paul Penzone. (Penzone resigned early this year to take a job in the health insurance industry.) Kamp, though, responded by arguing that voters should care more about Skinner's service under Arpaio, the man that Penzone unseated in 2016. Kamp focused on the sheriff's department's racial profiling policies against Latinos which led to a gigantic and expensive federal overhaul that's still in progress. (The Associated Press wrote last year that the cost to taxpayers was estimated to hit $273 million by this summer.) The challenger also reminded the audience that Skinner's tenure coincided with Arpaio's "Tent City" prison, which the Republican himself called a concentration camp and where temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Penzone went on to close Tent City after he unseated Arpaio. Skinner, who was tasked with complying with federal court orders in 2013, defended himself by arguing that he's helped the department make major changes during the last decade. He also insisted he was best equipped to keep things moving forward, saying, "I know the staff. I know the community. I know our challenges and where we excel." Skinner was a lifelong registered Republican until last October when he joined the Democratic Party one day after Penzone announced his intention to step down. That change, though, allowed the Republican majority on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, which was required to choose an appointee from Penzone's party, to select Skinner. "I'm not tied to my political affiliation," Skinner told 12 News' Brahm Resnik as he launched a bid to keep his new job. "I'm a law enforcement professional. That's not going to change how I do my job." When Resnik asked the sheriff if he voted for Donald Trump in 2020, he replied, "I don't recall. It's possible." Kamp also only registered as a Democrat last year, but the local Democratic Party unsuccessfully encouraged the supervisors to select him over Skinner. The party also used its X account to promote Kamp, including a May missive saying, "It's critical that we elect someone who truly shares our values." Arpaio, meanwhile, inserted himself into the three-way GOP primary last month by endorsing former state Department of Public Safety director Frank Milstead. The Arizona Republic's Abe Kwok notes that the former sheriff sided against Jerry Sheridan, a longtime top deputy who has talked about bringing back Tent City. Sheridan, though, crossed Arpaio during the 2020 cycle when he ran against his former mentor in the primary to take on Penzone. Sheridan edged out Arpaio 37-36 as former law enforcement official Mike Crawford took 26%. Penzone went on to defeat Sheridan in a landslide 56-44 as Joe Biden was carrying Maricopa County 50-48, a showing that made Biden the first Democratic presidential nominee to win here since Harry Truman in 1948. Crawford is also running again, and Arpaio seems to be more angry at him than at Sheridan. "Mike Crawford falsely claimed that I offered him my endorsement," Arpaio posted Friday on Instagram. After extolling Milstead, the former sheriff concluded, "Unfortunately, Mike Crawford’s false statement proves that he is desperate." Arpaio, for his part, is also on the ballot at the end of this month, albeit for a far less influential office than the one he used to hold. The 92-year-old Republican is once again trying to unseat Fountain Hills Mayor Ginny Dickey, who defeated him 51-49 two years ago in the nonpartisan contest to lead this 24,000-person community. 2Q Fundraising AZ-08: Greg Whitten (D): $151,000 raised MI-08: Mary Draves (R): $270,000 raised, additional $250,000 self-funded NH-02: Colin Van Ostern (D): $700,000 raised NJ-07: Sue Altman (D): $1.65 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D): $1.3 million raised, $1.1 million cash on hand Governors ● MO-Gov: ARW Strategies has polled the Aug. 6 Republican primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Parson and finds Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe leading with a 24% plurality while state Sen. Bill Eigel and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft are close behind at 19% each. The pollster tells Daily Kos

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Jul 3, 2024 - 17:00
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Morning Digest: Joe Arpaio's toxic legacy looms over the race for his old job

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: While it's been almost eight years since Joe Arpaio lost reelection as Maricopa County sheriff, the legacy of the Arizona Republican who spent decades as one of America's most venal and abusive law enforcement officials is playing a key role in both party's July 30 primaries for his old job.

We'll start on the Democratic side, where appointed incumbent Russ Skinner is trying to turn back former Phoenix police officer Tyler Kamp. Skinner used last week's debate to emphasize his 34 years with the department, including as the top deputy to the previous sheriff, Democrat Paul Penzone. (Penzone resigned early this year to take a job in the health insurance industry.)

Kamp, though, responded by arguing that voters should care more about Skinner's service under Arpaio, the man that Penzone unseated in 2016. Kamp focused on the sheriff's department's racial profiling policies against Latinos which led to a gigantic and expensive federal overhaul that's still in progress. (The Associated Press wrote last year that the cost to taxpayers was estimated to hit $273 million by this summer.)

The challenger also reminded the audience that Skinner's tenure coincided with Arpaio's "Tent City" prison, which the Republican himself called a concentration camp and where temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Penzone went on to close Tent City after he unseated Arpaio.

Skinner, who was tasked with complying with federal court orders in 2013, defended himself by arguing that he's helped the department make major changes during the last decade. He also insisted he was best equipped to keep things moving forward, saying, "I know the staff. I know the community. I know our challenges and where we excel."

Skinner was a lifelong registered Republican until last October when he joined the Democratic Party one day after Penzone announced his intention to step down. That change, though, allowed the Republican majority on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, which was required to choose an appointee from Penzone's party, to select Skinner.

"I'm not tied to my political affiliation," Skinner told 12 News' Brahm Resnik as he launched a bid to keep his new job. "I'm a law enforcement professional. That's not going to change how I do my job." When Resnik asked the sheriff if he voted for Donald Trump in 2020, he replied, "I don't recall. It's possible."

Kamp also only registered as a Democrat last year, but the local Democratic Party unsuccessfully encouraged the supervisors to select him over Skinner. The party also used its X account to promote Kamp, including a May missive saying, "It's critical that we elect someone who truly shares our values."

Arpaio, meanwhile, inserted himself into the three-way GOP primary last month by endorsing former state Department of Public Safety director Frank Milstead. The Arizona Republic's Abe Kwok notes that the former sheriff sided against Jerry Sheridan, a longtime top deputy who has talked about bringing back Tent City.

Sheridan, though, crossed Arpaio during the 2020 cycle when he ran against his former mentor in the primary to take on Penzone. Sheridan edged out Arpaio 37-36 as former law enforcement official Mike Crawford took 26%. Penzone went on to defeat Sheridan in a landslide 56-44 as Joe Biden was carrying Maricopa County 50-48, a showing that made Biden the first Democratic presidential nominee to win here since Harry Truman in 1948.

Crawford is also running again, and Arpaio seems to be more angry at him than at Sheridan. "Mike Crawford falsely claimed that I offered him my endorsement," Arpaio posted Friday on Instagram. After extolling Milstead, the former sheriff concluded, "Unfortunately, Mike Crawford’s false statement proves that he is desperate."

Arpaio, for his part, is also on the ballot at the end of this month, albeit for a far less influential office than the one he used to hold. The 92-year-old Republican is once again trying to unseat Fountain Hills Mayor Ginny Dickey, who defeated him 51-49 two years ago in the nonpartisan contest to lead this 24,000-person community.

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Governors

● MO-Gov: ARW Strategies has polled the Aug. 6 Republican primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Parson and finds Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe leading with a 24% plurality while state Sen. Bill Eigel and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft are close behind at 19% each.

The pollster tells Daily Kos Elections that the survey was not conducted on behalf of any client. ARW's prior poll in February showed Ashcroft far ahead with a 36% plurality while Kehoe and Eigel both took 13%, but more recent surveys from other outfits had found a much closer race.

One of those polls is a previously unreleased American Viewpoint internal taken in early June for Kehoe's allies at American Dream PAC that found Kehoe and Ashcroft tied 27-27, with Eigel at 16%. The survey was first publicized by the Missouri Independent's Jason Hancock, who discovered it "on an obscure page of the PACs website last week before it was taken down."

Hancock also noted that Eigel and Ashcroft only began to run their own ads after this survey was concluded, while Kehoe and his supporters had already spent weeks heavily advertising on TV. American Viewpoint used its memo to draw attention to Eigel, writing, "If Eigel is able to attract additional resources, this could become a true three-way contest."

House

● IN-05: Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz was charged with a misdemeanor on Friday in Virginia for attempting to bring an unloaded handgun in her carry-on bag through security at Washington Dulles International Airport, which could result in a $2,500 fine and up to one year in jail. The congresswoman claimed she left the gun in her bag by accident.

Spartz had already drawn negative attention in recent weeks after Politico reported that the House Ethics Committee was investigating whether she had abused her staff used public funds for campaign purposes.

● KS-02: Former Attorney General Derek Schmidt has picked up the support of the Kansas Farm Bureau, which has long been an influential force in state Republican primaries, for the Aug. 6 primary. Schmidt is the most prominent of the five candidates competing for the nomination to replace their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner.

● MI-08: The National Journal has obtained a new UpOne Insights internal poll for 2022 nominee Paul Junge that finds him demolishing former Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves by a 56-9 margin in the Aug. 6 Republican primary. The firm's previous survey from early June showed Junge with a similar 53-11 advantage, and no one has released any polls showing contradicting numbers so far.

Meanwhile on the Democratic side, retiring Rep. Dan Kildee has endorsed state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet. McDonald Rivet already had the DCCC's support and endorsements from major figures such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

● NJ-10: Gov. Phil Murphy on Tuesday endorsed Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver in the July 16 special Democratic primary, a development that came a week after Sen. Cory Booker backed her. The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein notes that the governor sided with McIver over a member of his administration, New Jersey Redevelopment Authority COO Darryl Godfrey.

McIver, who entered the race in May with the support of prominent local Democrats in the Newark area, has spent the entire contest as the frontrunner, though no one has released any polls here. There has also been no outside spending with two weeks to go before the 11-way primary to succeed the late Rep. Donald Payne in this safely Democratic seat.

● UT-02: The Republican primary for Utah's dark red 2nd District remains unresolved a week after Election Day, but Rep. Celeste Maloy's lead is still just out of recount range. However, we still may not have a final outcome for several weeks.

Maloy enjoys a 50.14-49.86 edge over Green Beret veteran Colby Jenkins—a margin of 302 votes—as of Tuesday evening. Jenkins needs the gap to fall below 0.25% to request a recount.

The Deseret News' Brigham Tomco says that most of the uncounted ballots haven't been tabulated because of various issues, such as a voter's signature not matching the one on file. The deadline for voters to "cure" their ballots is July 9, when counties complete their canvases. State election officials will then do their own canvas on July 22, and any eligible candidate may only request a recount afterward.

● VA-05: Virginia election officials on Tuesday certified that state Sen. John McGuire defeated Rep. Bob Good 50.3-49.7―a margin of 374 votes―in the June 18 Republican primary, but Good's team reiterated that he's raising money for a recount. The Staunton News Leader's Elizabeth Beyer writes that the congressman has a total of 10 days to request a recount, and that it would be up to a judge to decide how much it will cost and other issues.

Ballot Measures

● AZ Ballot, MT Ballot: Abortion rights supporters in two states where abortion measures are likely to be on the ballot this fall have placed large TV ad reservations that will begin in September. AdImpact relays that Arizona for Abortion Access has reserved $8.4 million, while Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights has booked $7 million.

● ID Ballot: Supporters of a ballot initiative that would establish a top-four primary with a ranked-choice general election announced that county officials had verified sufficient signatures for the measure to qualify for November's ballot. The group submitted those signatures to Republican Secretary of State Phil McGrane's office on Tuesday, and Idaho Public Radio's Troy Oppie writes that the secretary's final verification process "should take about a week."

Mayors & County Leaders

● Westchester County, NY Executive: City & State's Austin Jefferson writes that there's little question that Deputy County Executive Ken Jenkins is "poised" to become the first Black person to lead populous Westchester County now that his boss, County Executive George Latimer, has beaten Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the primary for the safely blue 16th Congressional District.

Jefferson says that the Westchester County Board of Legislators would be tasked with appointing a successor following Latimer's resignation, something that would presumably occur following the November general election. A special election would also take place within 90 days of Latimer's departure, and the winner would be up for a full four-year term in the fall of 2025.

Latimer praised Jenkins, who has spent the last seven years as his second-in-command, and told Jefferson, "I don't know that I've heard anybody thinking of challenging him within the party." Jefferson adds, "Neither has anyone else, though it’s still early."

Other Races

● Maricopa County, AZ Recorder: Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer told CBS 5 News last week that he'd be casting his ballot for President Joe Biden, an admission that comes ahead of Richer's July 30 Republican primary to keep his job as election administrator for Arizona's largest county.

Richer, though, infuriated the party's base years ago after he established himself as an ardent opponent of the Big Lie and by pushing back on Kari Lake's own conspiracy theories following her 2022 loss for governor. Richer was the target of death threats even before Shelby Busch, who is chairing the state delegation to the Republican National Convention, told a March party gathering, "[I]f Stephen Richer walked in this room, I would lynch him."

Richer shared footage of Busch's comments on social media last week, to which she responded, "It was political hyperbole and no way meant as a threat of violence." The Washington Post soon reported that federal law enforcement officials are investigating the matter.

Richer faces state Rep. Justin Heap and software designer Donald Hiatt in what was an already difficult primary. Heap, who belongs to the state's branch of the Freedom Caucus, did not outright say if he believed in the Big Lie at a recent debate, though he insisted that "there were inconsistencies and illegalities that happened" in 2020. Hiatt, by contrast, used the venue to spread conspiracy theories, including that Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg "dropped in illegal drop boxes."

Richer reacted to all of this, "I appreciate that Don at least has the courage to say yes, but Justin stood here again and hemmed and hawed. He didn’t give you a yes or no and I would suggest that is what is damaging to confidence to voters in Arizona." The incumbent also revealed he'd be voting for Biden right after that event.

The only Democrat in the race is Tim Stringham, an Army and Navy veteran who told Axios in December he was already skeptical that Richer would even make it through the primary.

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