Missouri Democrats score major win to clear path for abortion amendment

Missouri Democrats scored a major win on Friday after Republicans abandoned their effort to make it harder to amend the state constitution. The victory paves the way for a ballot measure that would restore abortion rights to pass with just a simple majority this fall.

The stunning climb-down came thanks to a record-breaking Democratic filibuster and bitter internal divisions among Republicans, both between warring factions in the Senate and between the upper and lower chambers of the legislature.

Republicans were open about their desire to thwart an effort to undo Missouri's near-total ban on abortion by moving the goalposts for an amendment that's likely to appear on the ballot in November.

To that end, they sought to place a measure on the Aug. 6 primary ballot—just ahead of the November vote—that would require amendments to win not only majority support among voters statewide, as is currently required, but also a majority in five of the state's eight congressional districts.

Those rules would have made it much harder to pass progressive proposals—but not conservative measures—thanks in large part to Republican gerrymandering.

The fifth "bluest" district in the state (northern Missouri's 6th District) voted for Donald Trump by a daunting 37-point margin, putting it far to the right of the state as a whole, which Trump won by 16 points in 2020. By contrast, the tipping-point district for conservatives would have been the 3rd District, which backed Trump by 26 points.

"So basically the effect of that is it would dilute the voices of those who live in more populous areas like Kansas City and St. Louis," Democratic state Sen. Lauren Arthur told Daily Kos Elections on "The Downballot" podcast, "and it would give more power and weight to the votes of those in rural Missouri."

But Republicans knew that even this one-sided approach would struggle to win the support of conservative voters, even though it would only need a majority to pass.

"I think Republicans recognize that the measure will be incredibly unpopular," said Arthur, "and that people understand and support the concept of one person, one vote."

So the GOP sought to sweeten the deal with a cynical bit of manipulation that both sides dubbed—one derisively, the other unabashedly—"ballot candy."

Like any confection, this candy was sugary, empty, and unnecessary. Republicans proposed to woo conservatives by including provisions that would ban non-citizens from voting and prohibit foreign political donations—things that are already illegal under state and federal law.

Democrats were prepared to fight the GOP's amendment fair and square at the ballot box and would have let Republicans send it to voters (albeit with Democrats voting against it) without any blandishments.

But they objected furiously to the inclusion of conservative candy. And they had good reason to, since this tactic had proven successful in the past: In 2020, voters repealed a redistricting reform measure they'd passed in a landslide two years earlier by narrowly adopting a Republican amendment that included some fig-leaf ethics reforms.

The Senate's Democratic minority turned to one of the few tools at its disposal to keep ballot candy off the ballot. In February, Democrats successfully staged a 20-hour filibuster that led the chamber to pass a version without these artificial sweeteners, though the measure's sponsor, Republican Mary Elizabeth Coleman, said at the time the battle to reinsert them wasn't over.

Coleman was right, and with the legislative session entering its final week, Democrats launched what turned into an epic, 50-hour talk-a-thon starting on Monday, with the intent of once and for all preventing the GOP's candy-laden amendment from advancing.

A Missouri filibuster, mind you, is nothing like the D.C. version, which requires only that a senator file a piece of paperwork. Rather, the Show Me State demands a "talking filibuster," just like in "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington." And with a tiny Democratic caucus of just nine members, sustaining one is no easy task.

"I mean, it's physical. You're standing at your desk for three hours at least," explained Arthur. "Some have picked up extra shifts and really helped out. It's been an incredible team effort, and I'm really proud of everyone for stepping up and sacrificing sleep, and at times hydration, and talking at all hours of the night."

Members of the Senate's nihilistic Freedom Caucus exhorted their colleagues to break the filibuster by invoking a seldom-used procedural maneuver known as "calling the previous question," which, notably, only requires the support of a simple majority.

But the Republican leadership, which has been engaged in a rancorous row with the Freedom Caucus for years now, ignored those pleas. With the far right determined to burn everything down, GOP leaders have had to rely on Democrats to keep basic government functions operational.

Just a week ago, for instance, Democrats provided the votes for the state's annual budget while the Freedom Caucus stood opposed. Were Republicans to call the previous question, Democrats would have no reason to keep working with them.

So in the face of unshakeable Democratic solidarity and an utter lack of unity on their own side, Senate Republicans backed down on Wednesday afternoon. They instead voted to refer their amendment to a conference committee that would hash out a path forward with the House.

But the House had no interest in talking. The lower chamber had already passed the make-amendments-harder amendment, complete with ballot candy, and wasn't about to change course. As St. Louis Public Radio's Jason Rosenbaum explained, House Republicans believed that voters would never pass a sugar-free version of the amendment.

As a result, on Thursday afternoon, the House rejected the Senate's request for a confab. Democrats, their bodies exhausted but their spirits energized, stood ready to renew their parliamentary marathon, knowing they would only have to sustain it until 6 PM local time on Friday—the drop-dead end of the legislative session.

That turned out to be unnecessary. While the chamber's leader, Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden, made one last public attempt early Friday morning to encourage the House to pass a ballot candy-free version of the amendment, the Senate adjourned a short time later.

"There's no way the Senate can get done in 8 hours what it couldn't do in 50," Rowden said just before his party caved.

It was a complete and total victory for Democrats: No version of the GOP's amendment, either with or without candy, will appear on the ballot this year. Remarkably, almost the exact same thing happened a year ago, when a previous Republican plan to restrict direct democracy died on the very last day of the legislative session—also due to GOP disarray.

Now the focus will be on November, when voters are very likely to have the chance to reinstate the right to an abortion. Earlier this month, reproductive rights advocates submitted more than double the number of signatures needed to place their amendment on the ballot. A review of those signatures is pending, but few in Missouri doubt they'll hold up—which is why Republicans were so desperately trying to pass their amendment.

Abortion rights supporters also have reason to think their amendment will win this fall. A February survey from St. Louis University and YouGov showed the proposal ahead 44-37, while data from Civiqs finds that 50% of Missouri voters think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 46% who say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

A long and expansive battle lies ahead, and Republican officials like Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft may try once again to use their powers to keep the amendment from reaching voters. But Democrats are energized.

"There is a lot of movement and momentum to have that issue on the ballot in November," said Arthur. "And I think this is a pretty brazen and obvious attempt to make it harder for people to make decisions about their bodies." That's something many voters are unlikely to soon forget.