Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Will Greg Abbott finally get his school voucher proposal passed?

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

We begin today with Brittany Gibson and Peter Schaffer of POLITICO reporting that the shoe salesman addressed the Libertarian National Convention and found out quickly that he is not as popular as he claimed to be.

Within minutes of beginning speaking — and after enduring sustained jeering and boos — the former president turned on the third party, mocking its poor electoral record in presidential elections even as he appealed to them for their endorsement.

“What’s the purpose of the Libertarian Party of getting 3 percent?” Trump asked the crowd, which proceeded to pelt him with jeers. “You should nominate Trump for president only if you want to win.”

The libertarians in attendance didn’t want to hear it, as hecklers chucked insults at Trump all night. “Liar,” they called him. “Panderer,” they shouted. “You crushed our rights,” they belted.

The raucous reception laid bare the difficulties confronting Trump in his effort to expand his base and cut off a third-party threat, not only from Libertarians, but also from independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite the Libertarian Party’s relatively small following, its 2020 candidate, Jo Jorgensen, drew more votes in some close states than the margin separating Trump and now-President Joe Biden.

I just have to say on this hot mess of a story: I don’t care who ultimately made the decision to fly the American flag upside down at Alito’s house. The fact is, flying the flag upside down means something,  especially after Jan. 6. That is a story that must be reported at that time and not three years later.

Kevin Mahnken of The 74 writes that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is campaigning vigorously to oust rural Republicans that have stonewalled his plans to implement school vouchers.

On May 28, voters will choose Republican candidates in 13 of the state’s 150 House districts. Four are currently held by representatives targeted by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott for persistently stymying his attempts to create a statewide system of education savings accounts (ESAs). If the incumbents fall, many believe the plan will be enacted, turning Texas into the country’s biggest school choice marketplace as soon as 2025.

While presumptively on hold until January, when the legislature will next come into session, the proposal could gain irresistible momentum if the elections are decided in Abbott’s favor. Almost immediately, lawmakers and educators alike would begin seriously considering the fallout from what could be a billion-dollar reform to school enrollments and financing.

The election is the culmination of a yearlong campaign by Abbott and his allies that has migrated from committee hearings in Austin to front-porch campaigning in East Texas. In March, an initial round of primary voting knocked off nine Republicans who had blocked a push during last year’s legislative session to allow universal eligibility for ESAs, which provide state funds for families to use for educational expenses like private school tuition. Another handful were denied majorities, triggering runoff elections against opponents who have largely been endorsed by the governor. Abbott has openly predicted that if two more anti-voucher incumbents are defeated, the legislation can be revived and passed.

That victory, if achieved, would result from the interplay of local and national political pressures.

Amy Green of Inside Climate News reports that. hurricane activity will be above normal this hurricane season, which begins June 1.

NOAA expects above-normal hurricane activity this season, with 17 to 25 named storms including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing winds of 111 miles an hour or more. The federal agency based its unprecedented forecast on a confluence of factors, most notably near-record sea surface temperatures that are as warm now as they normally are in August.

“That forecast is the greatest number of storms that we’ve forecast,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Now is the time to prepare.” [...]

NOAA said the sea surface temperatures were poised to power more storms. Forecasters also based their predictions on what they anticipate will be a quick transition to La Niña conditions, leading to a decrease in wind shear or atmospheric choppiness that can weaken or break apart storms. They also cited the potential for an above-normal African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed the strongest and longer-lived storms.  

The federal agency said there was an 85 percent chance for an above-normal season, 10 percent chance for a near-normal season and five percent chance for a below-normal season.

Julian E. Barnes of The New York Times reports that Russia has stepped up its covert operations and sabotage plans against Europe.

The covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania.

But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.

While the acts might appear random, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kyiv and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And the officials say Russia’s military intelligence arm, the G.R.U., is leading the campaign.

The attacks, at least so far, have not interrupted the weapons flow to Ukraine, and indeed many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying sow fear and force European nations to add security throughout the weapons supply chain, adding costs and slowing the pace of transfers.

Frederik Kelter of AlJazeera reports that Taiwan has stepped up its civil defense efforts in anticipation of a possible invasion by the mainland.

A survey conducted by the Pew Research Center last year showed 66 percent of Taiwan's people consider Beijing’s power a major threat to Taiwan. Almost 83 percent believe the threat from China has increased in recent years, according to a 2023 poll by Academia Sinica in Taiwan.

Their fears appear to be well-founded. On Thursday, China began two days of joint military drills involving the army, navy, air force and rocket force in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. The Chinese military framed the joint exercises as deterrence against Taiwanese "separatists" and "external forces".

According to US intelligence, Xi has instructed the military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, according to news reports.

Kuma Academy co-founder Ho says, like others around him, he has been deeply concerned about future Chinese actions against Taiwan.

Finally today, Steve Bloomfield of the Guardian says that the African National Congress might lose its grip on power in South Africa for the first time since apartheid ended 30 years ago.

As South Africa prepares to go to the polls on Wednesday, 30 years on from the first democratic elections, it is a nation in crisis. It’s the most unequal country in the world and among the most dangerous. The economy is stagnant, with almost zero growth in a decade and nearly half of adults are out of work.

Basic public services are falling apart. In many parts of the country there is no clean water, while rolling power cuts have become a regular feature of daily life. The government proudly points out it has been 55 days since the electricity went off, a streak that the more cynical expect to last until election day but not much longer.

[...]

At the heart of it all is corruption. What was a minor issue under Mandela and his successor Thabo Mbeki exploded when Jacob Zuma came to power in 2009. By the time he was kicked out of office by the African National Congress (ANC) in 2018, billions was looted from the state, leaving almost every part of it bankrupt, from the national airline to the agency that ran the railways.

Have the best possible day everyone!