Live coverage: June 18 primaries in Oklahoma and Virginia, plus runoffs in Georgia

VA-05 (R): Well, we’re down to one uncalled race tonight on our Big Board, the one we’ve discussed by far the most: the bitter and expensive battle between Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire.

As you know, the estimated vote tallies have been flopping around like a marlin on the deck of a Boston Whaler. If I can type quickly enough, I can tell you that Good has jumped back into the lead. With 81% of the vote allegedly tallied, he’s up 50.3 to 49.7, or less than 400 votes. Hang on, though, because we’re likely going to have a wild ride to the finish.

VA-10 (D): The AP has called the race for state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who is currently beating Del. Dan Helmer 30-27 with more than 90% of the estimated vote tallied. Subramanyam benefited from an endorsement by retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who unexpectedly announced her retirement last year citing the worsening symptoms of a serious neurodegenerative disease.

When Wexton flipped the 10th (based in the D.C. suburbs) in 2018, her victory marked a stark shift in the region’s politics. While Republicans had long held the seat, many voters rebelled against the party during the Trump era, and it’s now decidedly Democratic turf. It’s not rock-solid, though: Wexton had an unexpectedly close race in 2022, winning 53-47. But Subramanyam will be the favorite to hold this seat against Republican Mike Clancy, who won the GOP primary in a walk.

VA-05 (R): It’s starting to feel like the GOP primary is moving backward through time, as the estimated percentage of the vote tallied continues to drop. We kid, of course—the raw vote totals keep going up. But this has been one of the weirdest sets of election results we’ve ever seen, and it’s a really good reminder that you always have to view the percentage reporting as an estimate. Some sites (like the AP’s own) make that clear. Others do not. They should.

In any event, McGuire is up about 600 votes (50.6 to 49.4 on Good), with—allegedly—an estimated 79% of the vote tallied. But with this Zeno’s Paradox of a race, who knows if we’ll ever get to the end?

VA-07 (R): We have an AP call for Army veteran Derrick Anderson in the GOP primary. He’ll take on Democrat Eugene Vindman in what’s guaranteed to be an extremely expensive race for a very swingy open seat south of D.C.

VA-10 (D): Helmer looks on track to lose by at least a few hundred votes unless he starts doing much better in what's left of Prince William County. Fairfax (which previously appeared to have a sizable number of votes untallied) is now saying 93% in and he still trails Subramanyam by 1,750 overall.

VA-05 (R): The “percentage of vote” counted is just an estimate, and as such, it’s subject to revisions, both up and down. Over the last several minutes, the AP’s estimate has dropped from greater than 95% to 88% to 84% to (now) 79%. Meanwhile, they’ve still been adding votes for both candidates. McGuire is up 52-48 (about 1,100 votes), but suddenly, there’s a lot more runway.

OK-04 (R): Rep. Tom Cole and his allies sure seemed freaked, but the AP just called the race for the longtime Republican congressman, who is leading challenger Paul Bondar by a giant 68-21 margin. Cole & co. spent a ton to protect the incumbent, but evidently, there was no need. Would love to see the internal polling that had them so panicked, though.

VA-10 (D): We could have a very close race brewing here. Suhas Subramanyam is up 31-26 on Dan Helmer with about 80% reporting, but Subramanyam’s base in Loudon County appears to have finished county. Helmer is leading in everywhere else in the district, though he still would have to make up another 2,000+ votes to close the gap.

VA-05 (R): This is turning into a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it primary. Good and McGuire have traded leads repeatedly in the last few minutes. At this precise second, McGuire is back up 51.5 to 48.5 with an estimated 79% of the vote reporting, but that could truly change at any second.

OK-04 (R): We should note that polls closed about a quarter of an hour ago in Oklahoma, where veteran GOP Rep. Tom Cole faces an expensive challenge from a guy who’s so new to the state that he literally voted in the Texas primaries in March. Only a trickle of votes so far, though.

VA-05 (R): Well this is most unexpected. Rep. Bob Good has now moved into a narrow lead of less than 1 point over his challenger, John McGuire. Geoffrey Skelley of 538 does some back-of-the-envelope math and suggests that Good—who had looked like the underdog for the longest time—could actually survive, particularly because most of Campbell County (Good’s home turf) has yet to report.

VA-07 (D): No surprise: Former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman has won the Democratic nomination in a walk, per the AP, which has called the race with Vindman up 51-14 on his closest opponent. Vindman benefitted from his close association with his identical twin brother, Alexander, who was a key figure in Donald Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. That allowed Vindman to raise enormous sums in the form of small-dollar donations from progressives, something local elected officials just could not match.

It’s not clear yet who his Republican opponent will be for this swingy seat, but Army veteran Derek Anderson is leading right now.

VA-02 (D): The AP has called the Dem primary for Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal, who now heads to a general election against freshman GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans. Joe Biden carried the 2nd, which is based in the Hampton Roads suburbs, by a slender 50-48 margin, so this should be a competitive race.

VA-05 (R): If you’re watching a live AP tally, the results have been going haywire. At the moment, McGuire is up 53-47 with 42% counted, but at least twice, the AP shot all the way to 69% (and gave McGuire a 40-point lead). That appears to have been based on an error, though.

VA-07 (D & R): We’ve finally crossed the 10% mark in the Dem primary, where former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman has a giant 54-14 lead on his nearest opponent, former Del. Elizabeth Guzman, with 12% reporting. On the GOP side (where the AP says almost half of all votes are tallied), Army veteran Derrick Anderson 47-37 on former Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton.

This race is for the right to succeed Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who announced her retirement to focus on her 2025 bid for governor.

VA-02 (D): We just shot up to 19% reporting, and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal has a commanding 68-32 lead on attorney Jeremiah Denton. In a rare move, the DCCC decided to back Cotter Smasal (who lost a competitive race for the state Senate in 2019) ahead of the primary. Dems are eager to unseat first-term GOP Rep. Jennifer Kiggans, who defeated Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in 2022 in this swingy district.

GA-03 (R): The AP has called this runoff for Brian Jack, a former Trump aide who will now be on a glide path to Congress given this district’s deep red lean. The guy he’s replacing, incidentally, is retiring GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson, who is bailing on Congress at the age of just 57 after only four terms. Another sign of how lovely life must be in the Republican caucus.

VA-07 (D & R): This open seat in the exurbs south of D.C. is extremely swingy and therefore both parties’ primaries tonight are high on everyone’s watch list. But there’s something strange going on here, too. The AP thinks that 30% of the vote has been tallied for the GOP but just 4% for Democrats. It’s hard to understand what the thinking is here, but we’re gonna hold off a bit so that we delve into this more.

VA-10 (D): Subramanyam has now legged out to a much larger 34-21 lead on Helmer with more than a third reporting, on the strength of a good showing (comparable to his overall lead) in Loudon County.

VA-05 (R): Things are, as expected, looking rough for GOP Rep. Bob Good in the 5th District. He trails state Sen. John McGuire 52-48 with an estimate 12% reporting, but this appears to be the advance vote (ie, mail and/or early voting). McGuire, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, is likely to do even better with Election Day voters, since the MAGA base hates mail voting. (In case you were wondering what’s got Trump so upset, Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, committed the unforgivable sin of endorsing Ron DeSantis in the presidential race.)

VA-Sen (R): The AP has called this race for Navy veteran Hung Cao, who ran a reasonably creditable campaign for the House last cycle in the 10th District but now will be a massive underdog against Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine.

VA-10 (D & R): We’re at our threshold in Northern Virginia’s open 10th District, a once-Republican seat that has swung sharply toward Dems in the Trump era. State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who has the backing of retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton for the Democratic nod, is up 26-21 on Del. Dan Helmer, who is the best-funded candidate in the race. Former state Education Secretary Atif Qarni is in third with 15%, but this one could be volatile.

A bit oddly, the AP is saying 18% of votes have been counted on the Dem side but 48% have already been tallied for the GOP. That would imply a huge turnout disparity, which is not impossible but bears keeping an eye on (the AP often shifts its estimates of the vote reporting). Republican Mike Clancy has a massive lead.

GA-03 (R): In the runoff for Georgia’s open (and very conservative) 3rd District, former Trump aide Brian Jack has jumped out to an early 63-37 lead on former state Sen. Mike Dugan with around 14% reporting. Jack had the endorsement of his old boss and also had a wide lead in the first round, so a victory for him is quite likely.

Good evening, everyone! We have a tiny trickle of votes in Georgia, but nothing worth discussing yet. As is our practice, we always wait until we have at least 10% of the estimated vote tallied before we talk about any results.

But as keen election watchers know, things can change a lot even once that threshold is hit. That’s especially true on primary nights, where different areas report in at different times—and when different candidates often have regional bases of support. In addition, mail and early votes often behave differently from votes cast in-person on election day, and the former are usually counted first. So strap in!