It's math: Trump's conviction is not a good thing for him

Over the weekend, we saw the first poll showing that despite the desperate right-wing spin and pliant Beltway press corp, a felony conviction is, in fact, not a good thing for Donald Trump.  I did some basic electoral math on that Morning Consult poll: Trump has never hit 47% of the vote, and he’s done nothing to build on that, thus making his path to victory quite difficult. To win, he needs a combination of a strong third party vote, depressed Democratic turnout, and outsized performances in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  It’s not an impossible task! He pulled off his improbable victory in 2016, garnering just 46.1% of the national vote, but everything had to go right for him. In 2020, he couldn’t manage to repeat it even with all the advantages of incumbency. And despite rampant doomsaying in some Democratic circles, it’ll be tough for him as well this year.  In short, Trump has no margin of error, and any bleed in his support is near catastrophic. So pray tell, how could a felony conviction help him?  Saturday’s Morning Consult poll found that 54% of registered voters approve of the jury’s decision to convict Trump on 34 felony charges surrounding his 2016 hush money scheme with adult actress Stormy Daniels. Only 34% “strongly” or “somewhat” disapprove. According to this poll, the Republicans losing their minds over the conviction are only a third of voters, a distinct minority.  It’s likely no accident that 54% is roughly the number of people who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020. Again, he hasn’t built additional support since then. And given COVID deaths and suburban America’s leftward drift, he’s likely below that ceiling. It’s simply math. That’s why he spoke to a hostile audience at the Libertarian convention a couple of weeks ago—he’s desperate to find new supporters.  Another weekend poll, this one by Reuters/Ipsos, had equally damaging news for Trump: 10% of registered Republican voters are less likely to vote for Trump. Again, it’s math—losing a tenth of Republicans would translate to three to four points nationally, eliminating any realistic chance for victory.  Will that happen? Of course not. “Less likely” does not mean “won’t vote for him.” What it does mean is that even losing one to two points would be catastrophic for a campaign that desperately needs to hold on to his smaller core base to stand any chance of winning. Just as devastating, the poll found that 25% of independents are less likely to vote for him, exacerbating his challenges.  And that’s not all! Another Ipsos poll, this one for ABC News, found that 51% think that Trump intentionally broke the law, 12% think he broke the law unintentionally, and only 19% believe he did nothing wrong—that famous 20% dead-enders number.  The ABC News roundup, once again, misses the lede, claiming that “only 16% of Republicans say the verdict was correct and the same percentage say he should end his presidential bid.” Only? Only?  A full 16% of Republicans agree with the verdict and want someone who isn’t a convicted felon as their nominee. That’s a big deal! Again, Trump desperately needs to grow his support. This case is eroding it.  But you want to know how we really know that the felony conviction is hurting Trump? Because he hasn’t shut up talking about how rigged it is, demanding his entire party—the supposed “law and order” Republican Party—endorse a convicted felon as their nominee.  If it didn’t hurt him, Fox News and the rest of the conservative ecosystem wouldn’t be in overdrive trying to paint the conviction as a politically motivated hit job by hostile nefarious forces.  If it didn’t hurt him, he’d be bragging about the conviction, rather than attacking it.  Trump has a math problem. How does a conviction help build his support in an election that will be decided by fractions of a percent?  It doesn’t.  No criminals in the White House! Donate now to make sure Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump!