Morning Digest: How Matt Gaetz is fighting off McCarthy's revenge tour

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● FL-01: Rep. Matt Gaetz's bitter feud with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy ramped up on Friday as the far-right Florida congressman launched a new ad campaign attacking his challenger in the Aug. 20 Republican primary.

McCarthy and his allies are reportedly trying to unseat Gaetz as part of the ex-speaker's "revenge tour" against the eight Republicans who voted to oust him as leader of the House last fall. Gaetz's campaign told Politico that it's paying six figures to air its ad over 12 days in the 1st District, which covers the Pensacola area in Florida's panhandle.

Gaetz's commercial calls his opponent, Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, a "raging liberal" who supports Black Lives Matter and diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, which conservatives nationwide have turned into a favorite punching bag. The ad highlights Donald Trump's endorsement of Gaetz and claims Dimmock isn't a Floridian as the screen shows a social media profile that still identified Dimmock as a Missouri resident when news of his candidacy first broke in April.

Since first winning office in 2016, Gaetz has earned national notoriety for his extremism as a leading member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, culminating in his successful push to boot McCarthy for not caving to the party's furthest-right flank. However, Gaetz has also drawn unsavory headlines over accusations of wrongdoing that have been in the news recently.

Just days ago, the House Ethics Committee announced it was reviving its investigation into allegations that Gaetz had engaged in a wide variety of wrongdoing, including "sexual misconduct and illicit drug use," accepting "improper gifts," awarding "special privileges and favors" to associates, and obstructing investigations into his alleged misdeeds.

However, Gaetz easily turned back a primary challenger in 2022 while under investigation by the Department of Justice over similar claims. That probe ended last year without charges, but that result was not wholly good news for Gaetz. After concluding its work, the DOJ withdrew a request that the Ethics Committee hold off on its own investigation, allowing the panel to once again look into the allegations against Gaetz.

McCarthy's allies have targeted several of the Republicans who crossed the former speaker, but they've had limited success so far. The only one to lose so far has been Virginia Rep. Bob Good, who chairs the Freedom Caucus and just barely fell to state Sen. John McGuire this past Tuesday. However, South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace trounced a well-funded challenger earlier this month, while McCarthy supporters failed to recruit challengers to Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs and Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett.

Two other members, Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale and former Colorado Rep. Ken Buck, both chose not to seek reelection, though it does not appear that the threat of payback pushed them out.

Rosendale, for his part, launched a disastrous Senate campaign that lasted just one week after dithering for months about whether he would run. Buck, meanwhile, had already alienated many Republicans by rejecting what he called Trump's "lie that the 2020 election was stolen" and claimed he quit in frustration over his party's embrace of those fabrications.

That means that apart from Gaetz, the only McCarthy antagonist still at risk in a primary is Arizona Rep. Eli Crane, who faces former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith on July 30.

Senate

● MI-Sen, NV-Sen: An unnamed Republican source tells the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke that the NRSC is reserving $10 million for TV ads in Michigan starting in August. The NRSC is backing former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Aug. 6 primary.

Meanwhil, the Nevada Independent reports that the NRSC has booked $2.1 million for TV ads from mid-August through Election Day to support Republican Sam Brown against Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada.

These reports came a day after Politico wrote that the NRSC plans to book over $100 million across several races, including Michigan and Nevada. However, the committee didn't provide a state-by-state breakdown.

It's also possible that the totals could go up, particularly in Nevada, where the committee's reported reservation is much smaller than that of other outfits. One Nation, a dark money group tied to Senate Republican leadership, reserved $5.9 million for ads starting this summer, while Rosen and Democratic groups have booked tens of millions for this fall.

House

● MO-01: AIPAC has debuted its first TV ad targeting Rep. Cori Bush ahead of the Aug. 6 Democratic primary, attacking the congresswoman as "one of six Democrats" who voted against Joe Biden's infrastructure bill and also opposed his debt ceiling deal.

Through its United Democracy Project affiliate, AIPAC has previously run ads promoting Bush's challenger, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. AdImpact relays that the PAC has spent $2 million so far.

Bush and her small band of fellow travelers defended their votes at the time by arguing that Congress wouldn't pass the Build Back Better Act, Joe Biden's broader $2 trillion spending proposal, if the bipartisan infrastructure bill were to advance first. Build Back Better ultimately didn't pass, but some of its major provisions were included in the Inflation Reduction Act, which Bush voted for and Biden signed in 2022.

AIPAC has spent millions to level this same line of attack against Rep. Jamaal Bowman, Bush's fellow "Squad" member, ahead of Tuesday's primary in New York's 16th District, where he faces Westchester County Executive George Latimer.

● SC-03: Far-right state Rep. Stewart Jones recently endorsed preacher Mark Burns, a fellow right-wing extremist who's called for Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell to be executed for treason. The endorsement comes just ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary runoff between Burns and Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs.

Jones, who co-founded South Carolina's state-level Freedom Caucus modeled on its congressional counterpart, took third with 19% in the June 11 primary while Burns and Biggs secured the two runoff spots with 33% and 29%, respectively. Whoever wins the runoff will almost certainly win this dark red House seat this fall.

Donald Trump endorsed Burns before the first round of voting, while Gov. Henry McMaster supports Biggs. Biggs has benefited from far more outside spending, but Burns managed to secure a $750,000 bank loan to boost his bid despite pledging no collateral except for "future contributions" to his campaign.

Poll Pile

• MT-Sen: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Montana Republican Party: Jon Tester (D-inc): 46, Tim Sheehy (R): 46, Sid Daoud (L): 2, Michael Downey (G): 2 (57-37 Trump in two-way)
• MT-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Greg Gianforte (R-inc): 54, Ryan Busse (D): 33

Ad Roundup

• CO-03: Adam Frisch (D) - "against" Ron Hanks (R)
• KS-02: Shawn Tiffany (R) (here, here, and here)
• NM-02: Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)
• NY-24: Mario Fratto (R)