Trump's problem with Haley voters is actually much, much bigger
Donald Trump's enthusiasm problem persisted in ruby-red Indiana this week, where nearly 22% of Republican primary voters cast a ballot for a onetime presidential hopeful who dropped out of the race two full months ago: zombie candidate Nikki Haley. While it's easy to frame this persistent trend as a "Haley problem" for Trump, The Dispatch reporter David Drucker painted the pattern as a sign of something much bigger as he spoke to Greg Sargent on “The Daily Blast” podcast. What he described suggested the GOP coalition may be in the process of splintering under Trump. Drucker a veteran political journalist who has spoken to Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, said the Haley backers have largely lost their kinship with the Republican Party. "They no longer feel at home in the party," Drucker explained. "It wasn't just about Trump, it was about the new people he had attracted to the party—the populist right, which has ascended within the Republican coalition." In essence, the MAGA contingent’s hostile takeover of the GOP and what it now means to be a "Republican" is truly settling in—and it's not sitting well with Haley voters, who are more traditional Reagan-era conservatives. In any other election, Drucker said, he would assume these Haley voters would come home to the GOP in November and vote for Trump. But this cycle, he doesn't believe that can be taken for granted. Instead of seeing a nominee who simply wasn't their first choice, they see someone who doesn't share their worldview. "I talked to a lot of voters who simply do not think that Trump is a good guy, they don't share his values, and they really really wish they had another choice," Drucker said. That doesn't mean they're a lock for President Joe Biden by any stretch, but the Biden-Harris campaign is actively message testing the group, according to Drucker, to pinpoint how they can be persuaded to vote for Biden in November. One positive for Biden is the fact that Haley supporters tend to be suburban voters who are already more engaged and more reachable than Trump’s MAGA supporters, partly because they typically consume a more varied media diet rather than relying on a single source or getting their news through social media. Drucker and Sargent discussed which policies Biden might highlight to make an appeal to these disaffected Republicans. Biden's foreign policy initiatives—including standing by America's NATO allies and his steadfast support for Ukraine's battle against Russian aggression—are obvious starting points. But Drucker is waiting to see the pitch Team Biden makes on the domestic side, and thinks it has to be something more than “democracy is at risk,” which is also an obvious opening. "Appeals to American democracy are not unimportant and they may matter a great deal, but these voters are looking for something they can hang their hat on in a more traditional policy sense," Drucker said. Whatever pitch the Biden campaign settles on, the opening appears to be there. These voters aren't just anti-Trump or pro-Haley: They are profoundly uncomfortable with today's political landscape and their place within it. Navigator collects, analyzes, and distributes real data on progressive messaging. The Hub Project's Bryan Bennett and Gabriela Parra talk with Kerry about what they are seeing in their research this election cycle, and which messaging can help progressive candidates win elections in 2024—and beyond. Embedded Content Campaign Action
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Donald Trump's enthusiasm problem persisted in ruby-red Indiana this week, where nearly 22% of Republican primary voters cast a ballot for a onetime presidential hopeful who dropped out of the race two full months ago: zombie candidate Nikki Haley.
While it's easy to frame this persistent trend as a "Haley problem" for Trump, The Dispatch reporter David Drucker painted the pattern as a sign of something much bigger as he spoke to Greg Sargent on “The Daily Blast” podcast. What he described suggested the GOP coalition may be in the process of splintering under Trump.
Drucker a veteran political journalist who has spoken to Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, said the Haley backers have largely lost their kinship with the Republican Party.
"They no longer feel at home in the party," Drucker explained. "It wasn't just about Trump, it was about the new people he had attracted to the party—the populist right, which has ascended within the Republican coalition."
In essence, the MAGA contingent’s hostile takeover of the GOP and what it now means to be a "Republican" is truly settling in—and it's not sitting well with Haley voters, who are more traditional Reagan-era conservatives.
In any other election, Drucker said, he would assume these Haley voters would come home to the GOP in November and vote for Trump. But this cycle, he doesn't believe that can be taken for granted. Instead of seeing a nominee who simply wasn't their first choice, they see someone who doesn't share their worldview.
"I talked to a lot of voters who simply do not think that Trump is a good guy, they don't share his values, and they really really wish they had another choice," Drucker said.
That doesn't mean they're a lock for President Joe Biden by any stretch, but the Biden-Harris campaign is actively message testing the group, according to Drucker, to pinpoint how they can be persuaded to vote for Biden in November.
One positive for Biden is the fact that Haley supporters tend to be suburban voters who are already more engaged and more reachable than Trump’s MAGA supporters, partly because they typically consume a more varied media diet rather than relying on a single source or getting their news through social media.
Drucker and Sargent discussed which policies Biden might highlight to make an appeal to these disaffected Republicans. Biden's foreign policy initiatives—including standing by America's NATO allies and his steadfast support for Ukraine's battle against Russian aggression—are obvious starting points.
But Drucker is waiting to see the pitch Team Biden makes on the domestic side, and thinks it has to be something more than “democracy is at risk,” which is also an obvious opening.
"Appeals to American democracy are not unimportant and they may matter a great deal, but these voters are looking for something they can hang their hat on in a more traditional policy sense," Drucker said.
Whatever pitch the Biden campaign settles on, the opening appears to be there. These voters aren't just anti-Trump or pro-Haley: They are profoundly uncomfortable with today's political landscape and their place within it.
Navigator collects, analyzes, and distributes real data on progressive messaging. The Hub Project's Bryan Bennett and Gabriela Parra talk with Kerry about what they are seeing in their research this election cycle, and which messaging can help progressive candidates win elections in 2024—and beyond.
