Morning Digest: Tammy Murphy, New Jersey's first lady, drops Senate bid

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● NJ-Sen: Former financier Tammy Murphy, whose bid for Senate enjoyed every advantage that New Jersey's machine-driven politics could offer, stunned the political world when she abandoned her campaign for the Democratic nomination on Sunday, a day before the candidate filing deadline.

The shocking development, which was first reported by the New Jersey Globe, makes third-term Rep. Andy Kim the overwhelming favorite to win both the June 4 Democratic primary and the November general election for the seat currently held by Sen. Robert Menendez. The incumbent, who is set to go on trial in May on federal corruption charges, said on Thursday that he won't seek the Democratic nomination, though he still has out the possibility he might run as an independent.

Several Republicans are also running, though they face daunting odds in a state that last elected a Republican to the Senate in 1972, the second-longest such drought in the nation.

While Murphy did not directly mention Kim in a video she released explaining her decision, she said that "continuing in this race will involve waging a very divisive and negative campaign." Every public poll of the race had shown Kim with a double-digit lead in the primary, including one independent survey taken in January, and Murphy's camp never released data that presented a contrary view.

Kim jumped into the race in late September, just one day after federal prosecutors indicted Menendez and his wife in a case that included allegations of bribery and the seizure of gold bars from the senator's home.

That unhesitating move earned Kim massive media attention and instant fundraising success. However, it also drew the ire of New Jersey's establishment, which had long been accustomed to insiders assiduously plotting out statewide campaigns by securing support from political elites and stage-managing punctilious roll-outs.

That was precisely the approach Murphy took in the months following Menendez's indictment. Murphy had been a financial analyst after graduating college, and a Republican until a decade ago, but her most salient attribute—as far as New Jersey's political machine was concerned—was the fact that she was married to the state's governor, Phil Murphy.

Murphy's name first began circulating as a possible candidate days after Kim's entry, but she did not launch her campaign until almost two months later. She used that time to shore up endorsements from a wide array of Garden State power brokers, who in many cases were likely motivated by a desire to stay on the governor's good side. That allowed Murphy to kick off her bid with the backing of some of the state's most influential Democratic leaders, including the chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party.

But Murphy's insider-focused campaign also shined a spotlight on a unique New Jersey practice that had long allowed the establishment to remain in power: the county line. Unlike in every other state, where candidates are listed on ballots by the office they're seeking, New Jersey allows its counties to group contenders based on whether they've earned an endorsement from the local Democratic or Republican party.

This system allows parties to give preferential ballot placement to their preferred candidates, putting endorsees in a prominent location while relegating others to less visible spots known as "ballot Siberia." That design confers an extreme advantage: Rutgers professor Julia Sass Rubin concluded that between 2002 and 2022, candidates on the county line enjoyed an average boost of 38 points.

Kim was a vocal opponent of the county line system but also said he would not unilaterally disarm and instead fought Murphy county-by-county to win the support of local Democrats. In many cases, the fix was in, since endorsements in a number of counties, including some of the state's most populous, are issued by a handful of party leaders or even decreed by a single official; Murphy prevailed across the board in such counties.

But Kim experienced considerable success in counties that held conventions open to a large number of delegates and allowed participants to cast a secret ballot. A string of convention victories generated positive headlines for Kim and helped undermine a narrative that Murphy was the "frontrunner"—a claim many outlets and commentators advanced despite her poor polling.

Still, as convention season wound to a close ahead of Monday's filing deadline, Murphy had managed to secure the line in counties home to about twice as many Democratic voters as Kim.

But Kim's prominence—and the high-profile nature of the race—likely diminished the value of the county line, which was always most potent in obscure races. In this contest, however, both candidates would have entered the primary with high name recognition, and voters would have had reason to seek out their names even if they'd been banished to "ballot Siberia."

And still another threat loomed for Murphy. In February, Kim filed a federal lawsuit attacking the county line system as unconstitutional, and given the limited amount of time before ballots must be finalized, a ruling appears imminent. Should the judge hearing the case bar the use of the line, that would have dealt another severe blow to Murphy's bid.

Now, regardless of his lawsuit's immediate fate, Kim has a direct path to the Senate. If he succeeds, Kim, the son of Korean immigrants, would become the state's first Asian American senator and the first Korean American senator in U.S. history. And no matter what happens, he's already inflicted serious damage to New Jersey's once-indomitable machine that could have a major impact on state politics for years to come.

House

● CA-20: The Associated Press projects a May 21 special general election between Assemblyman Vince Fong and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, two Republicans who will also face off in November for the full two-year term. Fong, who has support from Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and former Rep. Kevin McCarthy, took first in Tuesday's all-party primary with 42%, while Boudreaux outpaced Democrat Marisa Wood 26-23 for the second place spot.

● CA-45: Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza on Saturday conceded the March 5 top-two primary to her fellow Democrat, attorney Derek Tran. Tran edged out Nguyen-Penaloza 15.9-15.6—a margin of 366 votes—while Republican Rep. Michelle Steel took first with 55%. Joe Biden carried this constituency in western Orange County 52-46.

● CO-04: Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez announced Thursday that he would seek the GOP nomination for the special election to replace fellow Republican Ken Buck, whose resignation was to take effect the next day, but he said he would not run for a full two-year term.

Lopez, who lost the 2018 and 2022 primaries for governor, told a conservative radio host that his decision "would allow those that are seeking a career in public service to run their campaigns unencumbered by the restrictions of a special election."

Party leaders will choose their nominee for the June 25 special election to replace Buck when they gather on March 28. Rep. Lauren Boebert, who is not seeking their approval, has argued they should pick someone like Lopez who won't seek a full two-year term, and conservative talk radio host Deborah Flora also made that same case on Thursday despite saying recently that the district "can't afford a placeholder."

 "For purposes of voter confidence the best outcome of this insider process would be to elect a placeholder to immediately engage on behalf of CD-4 citizens," Flora wrote in a statement. However, she did not say whether she'd no longer try to convince local Republicans to choose her as their nominee, though the Colorado Sun interpreted her remarks that way. (Florida previously said she was "all in" for the special election.)

The outlet adds that state Rep. Mike Lynch also has decided not to run in the special, though there's no quote from him.

● MI-08, MI-Sen: State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder announced Friday that she was ending her campaign for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate and would instead run to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in the competitive 8th District. Snyder gives Republicans an alternative to Paul Junge, a former Trump immigration official who badly lost to Kildee 53-43 last cycle, but she may not be strong enough to put up a tough fight in the primary.

Snyder, who is not related to former Gov. Rick Snyder, won an eight-year term in 2016 on the Board of Education, whose members are elected statewide. Four years later, she tried to campaign against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin for what was then numbered the 8th District. However, her underfunded campaign collapsed after election officials determined she didn't submit enough signatures to make the primary ballot. The GOP nod ultimately went to Junge, who lost to Slotkin 51-47. (The old 8th District does not overlap with the constituency that both Republicans are seeking now.)

Snyder set her sights on an even bigger prize this cycle when she became the first notable Republican to enter the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but she once again had problems attracting money or attention. Snyder finished 2023 with just $93,000 in the bank, and she barely registered in the polls on the occasions her name was even included.

Snyder lives outside the 8th District near Ann Arbor, but she argued she nonetheless has ties to her would-be constituents. "[T]echnically I would be the only candidate who represents them right now, from a Republican standpoint," she told the Detroit News, "as I’m a statewide elected official who represents them in education and will continue to do so in Congress." (House members are not required to live in the district they represent, only the state.) The primary is Aug. 6.

● NY-01: George Santos announced Friday that he was abandoning his hopeless primary bid against Republican Rep. Nick LaLota and would instead wage a hopeless bid as an independent. Of course, this is George Santos we're talking about, so he may announce plenty of other things between now and his September trial.

● TX-15: The Latino advocacy group Somos Pilares has announced a $1.5 million bilingual ad campaign taking GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz to task for "voting to cut access to Social Security and Medicare and voting to cut programs working people count on." The spending is welcome news for Democrat Michelle Vallejo, who didn't attract much outside support in 2022 ahead of her 53-45 loss to De La Cruz and is hoping their rematch will be different. Donald Trump carried this Rio Grande Valley seat 51-48 in 2020.

● WI-08: There goes another one! Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, who announced his retirement from the House just last month, said on Friday that he would resign early, setting his last day as April 19.

The timing of Gallagher's departure means that the special election to fill his soon-to-be-vacant district will be consolidated with Wisconsin's regularly scheduled November elections, with a primary held on Aug 13, the same day as the state's normal primaries. Wisconsin's 8th District, which is based in the northeastern part of the state, favored Donald Trump 57-41 in 2020.

Gallagher's resignation will also reduce House Speaker Mike Johnson's margin for error to just a single vote. Once Gallagher leaves, the GOP caucus will shrink to 217 members, while Democrats will hold 213 seats. Therefore, if two Republicans defect on any given vote and join with a unified Democratic minority, the resulting roll call would be a 215-215 tie, which is the same as a loss.

Ballot Measures

● CO Ballot: Colorado's Title Board on Wednesday rejected a ballot initiative to replace the state's partisan primaries and establish ranked-choice voting after determining that the proposal violated the state constitution by covering more than one subject. 

Colorado Newsline's Chase Woodruff writes that the measure's proponents, who are seeking to bring a top-four primary to the state, have responded by expressing interest in breaking their proposal into two different initiatives "if necessary." Their counterparts in Montana are employing this approach because of their state's own single-subject requirement.  

Just like in Montana, though, it's unclear what would happen in Colorado if organizers bifurcate their proposal and voters were to approve only one initiative. Kent Thiry, the wealthy businessman who is spearheading Colorado's effort, warned the Title Board about the confusion that could result from such a scenario, arguing that it "could be like changing how the pitcher pitches but not moving the catcher."

However, his arguments didn't persuade the three-person body the proposal adheres to state law. Woodruff says that the deadline for the Title Board to allow measures to move forward is April 17, though there could be a rehearing or litigation after that date.

Any initiatives that are given the green light would have no later than Aug. 5 to obtain 124,238 voter signatures statewide, as well as an amount equal to 2% of registered voters in each of the state's 35 Senate districts. Any proposals that qualify for November's ballot would also need at least 55% support from voters to pass.

mayors & County Leaders

● Sacramento, CA Mayor: Former state Sen. Richard Pan on Friday conceded that he'd narrowly failed to secure a spot in the officially nonpartisan general election to succeed retiring Mayor Darrell Steinberg. Physician Flojaune Cofer and Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, who like Steinberg and all the major candidates are Democrats, will face off in November.

Cofer took first in the March 5 primary with 29%, while McCarty outpaced Pan 21.5-21.3—a margin of 293 votes—for the second slot.  Another 21% went to City Councilman Steve Hansen, with the balance split between two other contenders. Cofer who is the endorsed candidate of the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, ran to the left of her rivals, while the Sacramento Bee identifies McCarty as "the second most progressive" candidate.