Morning Digest: Retirement sets off another pivotal battle for Wisconsin's Supreme Court

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● WI Supreme Court: Liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley reversed course on Thursday and announced she would not seek a fourth 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court next year, a move that creates an open race for a pivotal seat that could once again determine control of the court. Though Bradley had declared she would "absolutely" run again last year immediately after progressives won their first majority on the court in 15 years, the 73-year-old jurist said in a statement on Thursday that "it's just time to pass the torch, bringing fresh perspectives to the court." Bradley's decision prompted two liberal judges to put their names forward as possible successors, Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor and Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford. (The Court of Appeals is the state's intermediate appellate court while circuit courts function as the state's trial courts.) Meanwhile, former Republican state Attorney General Brad Schimel previously launched a campaign last fall, though another conservative might join him. Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar said after Schimel's kickoff that she was considering a bid, and she reiterated her interest following Bradley's announcement. All candidates will run together on a single, officially nonpartisan primary ballot on Feb. 18, with the top two vote-getters advancing to an April 1 general election. That race, like almost every other contest for Wisconsin's top court for more than a decade, will be fiercely fought, particularly because liberals' slender 4-3 majority will be at stake. Bradley saw that majority shift back and forth during her long career on the bench, which began when Democratic Gov. Tony Evers appointed her as the first-ever woman judge in Marathon County in 1985. After winning two terms unopposed, she then ran for the Supreme Court in 1995, defeating Patrick Crooks, a fellow trial court judge who campaigned as a conservative, by a 55-45 margin. Crooks would soon join the court himself after winning election the following year, though at the time, the bench was less polarized. That would change over the following decade, as the court split into ideological factions, though the eclectic Crooks—who'd originally been appointed a judge by Democratic Gov. Martin Schreiber in 1977—was often a swing vote. Bradley had no opponent when she won reelection in 2005. With occasional support from Crooks, she and her fellow liberals, Louis Butler and Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson, authored several decisions that infuriated business lobbies, prompting an influx of corporate money into the 2008 election for Butler's seat. In that race, Michael Gableman, a conservative trial court judge, ousted Butler, the state's first Black Supreme Court justice, after running racist ads that were likened to George H.W. Bush's infamous "Willie Horton" commercials. As a result, hardline conservatives took a decisive 4-3 majority that saw them rubber-stamp Republican efforts to undermine labor unions and roll back voting rights. Bradley easily won her final term in 2015, an unusual race in which conservatives did little to try to unseat her. But she'd have to wait until 2023 to once again find herself in the majority, following Janet Protaseiwciz's historic victory. The new-look court quickly asserted itself, with Bradley joining her fellow liberals in December to invalidate the state's Republican-drawn legislative maps. Bradley is likely to rule on at least one more major case before her term ends in August of next year. A challenge to Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban was appealed to the state Supreme Court last year, and while the justices have not yet agreed to hear the matter, it would be a major surprise if they declined to weigh in. 1Q Fundraising MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D): $2.25 million raised, $3.3 million cash on hand TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D): $9.5 million raised CA-45: Michelle Steel (R-inc): $1 million raised, $3.25 million cash on hand GA-03: Brian Jack (R): $600,000 raised (in three weeks) NY-16: George Latimer (D): $2.2 million raised NY-22: Sarah Klee Hood (D): $330,000 raised, $416,000 cash on hand Senate ● FL-Sen: Former Rep. Alan Grayson tells NOTUS' Alex Roarty that he is indeed seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott, though one local party leader acknowledged he didn't even know of Grayson's plans until Roarty contacted him. While Grayson filed with the FEC last June, Roarty reports that he has barely made any in-person appearances, has spent almost nothing on staff, and doesn't even have a campaign website. While Grayson insists he's adopting this strategy because of advances in technology, skeptics argue he's actually focused on raising money to pay off the $3.4 million in campaign deb

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Apr 12, 2024 - 16:50
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Morning Digest: Retirement sets off another pivotal battle for Wisconsin's Supreme Court

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● WI Supreme Court: Liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley reversed course on Thursday and announced she would not seek a fourth 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court next year, a move that creates an open race for a pivotal seat that could once again determine control of the court.

Though Bradley had declared she would "absolutely" run again last year immediately after progressives won their first majority on the court in 15 years, the 73-year-old jurist said in a statement on Thursday that "it's just time to pass the torch, bringing fresh perspectives to the court."

Bradley's decision prompted two liberal judges to put their names forward as possible successors, Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor and Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford. (The Court of Appeals is the state's intermediate appellate court while circuit courts function as the state's trial courts.)

Meanwhile, former Republican state Attorney General Brad Schimel previously launched a campaign last fall, though another conservative might join him. Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar said after Schimel's kickoff that she was considering a bid, and she reiterated her interest following Bradley's announcement.

All candidates will run together on a single, officially nonpartisan primary ballot on Feb. 18, with the top two vote-getters advancing to an April 1 general election. That race, like almost every other contest for Wisconsin's top court for more than a decade, will be fiercely fought, particularly because liberals' slender 4-3 majority will be at stake.

Bradley saw that majority shift back and forth during her long career on the bench, which began when Democratic Gov. Tony Evers appointed her as the first-ever woman judge in Marathon County in 1985. After winning two terms unopposed, she then ran for the Supreme Court in 1995, defeating Patrick Crooks, a fellow trial court judge who campaigned as a conservative, by a 55-45 margin.

Crooks would soon join the court himself after winning election the following year, though at the time, the bench was less polarized. That would change over the following decade, as the court split into ideological factions, though the eclectic Crooks—who'd originally been appointed a judge by Democratic Gov. Martin Schreiber in 1977—was often a swing vote.

Bradley had no opponent when she won reelection in 2005. With occasional support from Crooks, she and her fellow liberals, Louis Butler and Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson, authored several decisions that infuriated business lobbies, prompting an influx of corporate money into the 2008 election for Butler's seat.

In that race, Michael Gableman, a conservative trial court judge, ousted Butler, the state's first Black Supreme Court justice, after running racist ads that were likened to George H.W. Bush's infamous "Willie Horton" commercials. As a result, hardline conservatives took a decisive 4-3 majority that saw them rubber-stamp Republican efforts to undermine labor unions and roll back voting rights.

Bradley easily won her final term in 2015, an unusual race in which conservatives did little to try to unseat her. But she'd have to wait until 2023 to once again find herself in the majority, following Janet Protaseiwciz's historic victory. The new-look court quickly asserted itself, with Bradley joining her fellow liberals in December to invalidate the state's Republican-drawn legislative maps.

Bradley is likely to rule on at least one more major case before her term ends in August of next year. A challenge to Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban was appealed to the state Supreme Court last year, and while the justices have not yet agreed to hear the matter, it would be a major surprise if they declined to weigh in.

1Q Fundraising

Senate

● FL-Sen: Former Rep. Alan Grayson tells NOTUS' Alex Roarty that he is indeed seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott, though one local party leader acknowledged he didn't even know of Grayson's plans until Roarty contacted him. While Grayson filed with the FEC last June, Roarty reports that he has barely made any in-person appearances, has spent almost nothing on staff, and doesn't even have a campaign website.

While Grayson insists he's adopting this strategy because of advances in technology, skeptics argue he's actually focused on raising money to pay off the $3.4 million in campaign debts he'd incurred through his many past runs for office. Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is the frontrunner in the Aug. 20 primary.

● NV-Sen: While former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter said last week that he was launching a $3.3 million advertising campaign ahead of the June 11 Republican primary, the Nevada Independent's Gabby Birenbaum reported Wednesday that he'd yet to book any ad time. AdImpact relayed on Thursday that the candidate had reserved $459,000 earlier that day.

Gunter's campaign told Birenbaum that they hadn't been able to book his ads over the last week because their bank was "unreasonably holding a wire from being disbursed." Birenbaum also notes that in January, Gunter's team told the FEC it had to amend its report because of a $200,000 loan the candidate believed "to be lost in the mail." Gunter is the underdog against Army veteran Sam Brown in the primary to face Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.

Governors

● IN-Gov: SurveyUSA's new poll for State Affairs and Howey Politics gives Sen. Mike Braun a huge 44-10 lead over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch ahead of the May 7 Republican primary for governor, with self-funders Eric Doden and Brad Chambers each at 8%. A recent survey from the GOP firm ARW Strategies on behalf of Crossroads Public Affairs and IndyPolitics.org placed Braun at 33% as Crouch and Doden were far behind with 11% apiece.

● WV-Gov: Research America's poll for Metronews finds Attorney General Patrick Morrisey edging out former Del. Moore Capito just 31-29 in the May 14 Republican primary for governor. Businessman Chris Miller and Secretary of State Mac Warner are further back with 16% and 12%, respectively, while 10% of respondents are undecided.

This poll was released days after a pro-Morrisey group, Black Bear PAC, publicized an internal from WPA Intelligence showing Morrisey leading Capito by a considerably larger 37-20 spread, with Miller at 18%. However, as we've mentioned before, Black Bear and other pro-Morrisey groups are still behaving like Miller, rather than Capito, is the attorney general's main opponent.

House

● Indiana: Howey Politics, utilizing data from AdImpact, provides a detailed look at ad spending in four safely red U.S. House seats for the May 7 GOP primaries, and we encourage you to read the piece in full.

The most eye-popping highlights come in the 5th District in the central part of the state, where Howey reports that self-funding state Rep. Chuck Goodrich outspent incumbent Victoria Spartz by a gigantic $2.1 million to $145,000 margin through April 5. Just to the south in the neighboring 6th District, wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve is outpacing state Rep. Mike Speedy by $2.7 million to $458,000 in the busy primary to replace retiring Rep. Greg Pence.

The contest for the 6th District would likely have been even more expensive had trucking company owner Sid Mahant, who self-funded $2 million last year, been able to continue his campaign. However, the Indiana Election Commission removed Mahant from the ballot in February after determining that he did not meet the qualifications to seek the GOP nod because he'd only voted in one previous Republican primary. (We explain the relevant state law here.)

Over in the 3rd District around Fort Wayne, Howey says that businessman Tim Smith has outspent former Allen County Judge Wendy Davis $725,000 to $393,000 on ads in the contest to replace Rep. Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman is a distant third, but his name recognition may give him a boost in another packed race.

Finally, in the 8th District, former Trump staffer Dominick Kavanaugh enjoys a $810,000 to $484,000 advertising advantage over state Sen. Mark Messmer. However, the Republican Jewish Coalition recently began a $1 million buy to boost Messmer and swat down a third candidate, former Rep. John Hostettler. Hostettler has also been on the receiving end of attacks from other outside groups as he tries to succeed retiring Rep. Larry Bucshon in this southwestern Indiana constituency.

Howey's report has much more on each of these contests.

● NJ-08: The Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, polling on behalf of a super PAC called America's Promise, shows Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla leading Rep. Rob Menendez 33-28 in the June 4 Democratic primary, with another 7% going to businessman Kyle Jasey. There is no word on the sponsor's interest in the race.

This poll, which was first reported by the New Jersey Globe, is the first we've seen since a pair of early February internals showed Menendez in the lead—albeit by very different margins. The incumbent initially publicized numbers from TargetSmart giving him a 46-24 advantage in the primary for this safely blue seat. Bhalla, however, responded with his own poll from GQR showing Menendez ahead only 44-41, though that survey did not include Jasey.

● TN-05: Cybersecurity executive Tom Guarente told the Nashville Banner's Stephen Elliott on Thursday that he was ending his primary campaign against Republican Rep. Andy Ogles. Guarente's departure leaves Davidson County Metro Councilmember Courtney Johnston as Ogles' only intra-party foe, and the now-former candidate acknowledged that his continuing presence would have made it tougher for her to win.

Mayors & County Leaders

● Anchorage, AK Mayor: Former Anchorage Economic Development Corp. CEO Bill Popp on Wednesday endorsed former Anchorage Assembly Chair Suzanne LaFrance over Republican Mayor Dave Bronson in the May 14 runoff, a development that came a little more than a week after Popp took third place in the nonpartisan primary. Popp and LaFrance both identify as independents, though the latter had the support of the local Democratic Party during the primary.

A total of 71,000 ballots have been tabulated as of Wednesday, and the results are essentially the same as they were right after election night. LaFrance leads the incumbent 36.2-35.6, with Popp at 17% and former Democratic state Rep. Chris Tuck at 8%. (Candidates needed to secure more than 45% to win outright.)

Tuck, unlike Popp, has refused to back anyone for the runoff even though he shared the Anchorage Democratic Party's endorsement with LaFrance for the primary. "I talked with both candidates and they respect my desire to stay neutral due to the diversity of my supporters," Tuck told Alaska's News Source this week. He separately informed the Anchorage Daily News that, while he'd probably maintain this stance, "I'm an open book. So until I meet with the candidates—we'll see."

Popp, by contrast, implored voters who would "normally have supported Mayor Bronson but chose me instead" to back LaFrance. "We are losing population, we are losing workers, we are losing business investment," he said at his Wednesday endorsement event, according to the Anchorage Daily News. "And that's under the watch of Mayor Bronson for the last two-and-a-half years."

● Baltimore, MD Mayor: Braun Research, polling on behalf of Goucher College and The Baltimore Banner, shows Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott leading former Mayor Sheila Dixon 40-32 in the May 14 Democratic primary, with former prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah at 11% and self-funding businessman Bob Wallace taking 3%. This is the first independent survey we've seen all year of the contest to lead this loyally Democratic city.

Braun, however, asked several questions ahead of the horserace matchup. These included whether respondents felt crime had increased or decreased in their neighborhoods over the last year, and how Scott and other elected officials responded to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. (The mayor received a "good" or "excellent" score from 70% of primary voters.) We always encourage pollsters to ask these sorts of questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.

Scott outpaced Dixon 30-27 in their 2020 primary (Vignarajah finished in fourth with 12%), and their rematch has attracted a good deal of attention.

While Dixon resigned as mayor in 2010 after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families, her narrow loss four years ago underscored the solid base of support she still retains. Scott's critics, meanwhile, have argued he's done a poor job addressing crime even as the mayor has touted a drop in the homicide rate.

Scott has held a fundraising advantage through the race, and he still had considerably more money available as of early April even though Dixon outraised him this year. The former mayor outpaced the incumbent $273,000 to $231,000 from Jan. 11 to April 2, while Scott had a $908,000 to $497,000 edge in cash on hand.

Vignarajah, who is the only notable candidate utilizing the city's public financing system, took in a total of $698,000. He reported having $548,000 on hand on April 2, though he says he'll receive another $150,000 from Baltimore's Fair Election Fund.

Dixon is also receiving support from Better Baltimore PAC, a super PAC primarily funded by two influential donors: David Smith, the new Baltimore Sun owner who also serves as executive chairman of the conservative Sinclair Broadcast Group, and developer John Luetkemeyer.

Better Baltimore reported taking in $386,000 during the last fundraising period and spending $432,000 on media. The super PAC had just $17,000 in the bank on April 2, but its donors are almost certainly capable of giving more.

Scott has publicized recent endorsements from Sens. Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen, while Baltimore State's Attorney Ivan Bates, the city's top prosecutor, backed Dixon this week. Bates also starred in a commercial in which he appeared to implicitly address Dixon's old scandal by telling the audience, "I’m not worried about the past, I’m focused on the partnership for the future."

If Scott secures renomination, he'll almost certainly become the first Baltimore mayor to win a second full term since Martin O'Malley did so in 2004, though O'Malley didn't complete that term. Instead, he ran for governor in 2006 and unseated Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich.

Following O'Malley's victory, Dixon, as city council president, was elevated to the mayor's office. She easily won a full term in 2007 only to resign in disgrace in 2010, and Stephanie Rawlings-Blake this time was the one who ascended from council president to mayor.

Rawlings-Blake won her 2011 primary for a full term by beating state Sen. Catherine Pugh 52-25, but she did not seek reelection in the face of widespread criticism over her handling of the 2015 unrest that followed after Freddie Gray died in police custody. Pugh and Dixon both competed in the 2016 primary, which saw the state senator prevail 37-35.

Pugh's tenure, however, also ended in scandal in 2019 when she resigned before pleading guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion charges related to her self-published children's books. City Council President Jack Young took over as mayor but, unlike Dixon and Rawlings-Blake, he fared poorly in his bid to stay in office, finishing fifth in the 2020 primary that Scott won.

P.S. If eagle-eyed readers are wondering why Baltimore's elections have flip-flopped from even years to odd and back again, it's a very complex story that you'll find recounted in this Baltimore Sun piece.

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