Biden’s swing-state push may be paying off
New polling suggests the Biden campaign's recent swing-state offensive may be moving the needle in his direction. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult battleground poll following the State of the Union address (March 8-15) found President Joe Biden improving against Donald Trump in six states. Crucially, Biden pulled even with Trump, at 45%, in Michigan and Pennsylvania and moved 1 percentage point ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, 46% to 45%. The so-called "blue wall" states in the upper Midwest are likely must-wins for Biden to be reelected. Over the past month, Bloomberg noted a significant Biden uptick in Wisconsin, where he gained 5 points on Trump, and in Pennsylvania, where Biden erased Trump's 6-point advantage last month. Across all surveyed states—which also includes Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—Trump still leads overall, 47% to 43%, but Biden gained ground in every state but Georgia, where Trump grew his lead by 1 point. Embedded Content The Bloomberg poll falls in line with the shifting election fundamentals, which appear to be moving in Biden’s direction recently. Those fundamentals show Biden gaining on Trump in national polling as well as strongly outpacing him in donations. The Biden campaign has kicked into high gear since the president's State of the Union address on March 7. It has barnstormed eight battleground states in 18 days while also planning to staff up from 100 people to more than 350 across seven swing states. All the while, Trump has been stuck in a courtroom, fundraising at his Mar-a-Lago club, playing golf, and, in general, grousing from the cheap seats, as Biden runs the field. Also, the Biden campaign’s ad spending throughout most of March has more than quadrupled Trump's, according to NPR reporter Domenico Montanaro: $9.9 million to $2.4 million. Re: my last tweet, that included all pre-booked advertising and FF PAC hasn't started running ads yet. They are scheduled to begin 8/27. Filtering for 3/6-end of this month, it's Dems outspending Rs $10.7 million to $5.7m. Team Biden: $9.9m Team Trump: $2.4m— Domenico Montanaro (@DomenicoNPR) March 28, 2024 That disparity is likely to compound over time. "Since Super Tuesday, Democrats are DOMINATING in presidential campaign ads—$142.5 million to $7.4 million," Montanaro tweeted Thursday, citing the nonpartisan research firm AdImpact. "That's not a typo," he added. He explained that the figures included pre-bookings, including $130 million in ad reservations booked by the Democrat-aligned Future Forward PAC set to start in late August, following the Democratic National Convention. Biden also continues to bank cash. On Thursday, the campaign set a single-day fundraising record, with Biden hauling in over $26 million at a joint appearance with past Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at Radio City Music Hall. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have been improving since his fiery State of the Union speech—as we predicted. At the same time, the Republican Party cannot stop the infighting, even as Donald Trump’s takeover seems to be complete. Markos and Kerry get into Biden’s improving fundamentals as the race to save America heats up. Embedded Content Campaign Action
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New polling suggests the Biden campaign's recent swing-state offensive may be moving the needle in his direction.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult battleground poll following the State of the Union address (March 8-15) found President Joe Biden improving against Donald Trump in six states. Crucially, Biden pulled even with Trump, at 45%, in Michigan and Pennsylvania and moved 1 percentage point ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, 46% to 45%. The so-called "blue wall" states in the upper Midwest are likely must-wins for Biden to be reelected.
Over the past month, Bloomberg noted a significant Biden uptick in Wisconsin, where he gained 5 points on Trump, and in Pennsylvania, where Biden erased Trump's 6-point advantage last month.
Across all surveyed states—which also includes Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—Trump still leads overall, 47% to 43%, but Biden gained ground in every state but Georgia, where Trump grew his lead by 1 point.
The Bloomberg poll falls in line with the shifting election fundamentals, which appear to be moving in Biden’s direction recently. Those fundamentals show Biden gaining on Trump in national polling as well as strongly outpacing him in donations.
The Biden campaign has kicked into high gear since the president's State of the Union address on March 7. It has barnstormed eight battleground states in 18 days while also planning to staff up from 100 people to more than 350 across seven swing states. All the while, Trump has been stuck in a courtroom, fundraising at his Mar-a-Lago club, playing golf, and, in general, grousing from the cheap seats, as Biden runs the field.
Also, the Biden campaign’s ad spending throughout most of March has more than quadrupled Trump's, according to NPR reporter Domenico Montanaro: $9.9 million to $2.4 million.
That disparity is likely to compound over time.
"Since Super Tuesday, Democrats are DOMINATING in presidential campaign ads—$142.5 million to $7.4 million," Montanaro tweeted Thursday, citing the nonpartisan research firm AdImpact. "That's not a typo," he added.
He explained that the figures included pre-bookings, including $130 million in ad reservations booked by the Democrat-aligned Future Forward PAC set to start in late August, following the Democratic National Convention.
Biden also continues to bank cash. On Thursday, the campaign set a single-day fundraising record, with Biden hauling in over $26 million at a joint appearance with past Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton at Radio City Music Hall.
President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have been improving since his fiery State of the Union speech—as we predicted. At the same time, the Republican Party cannot stop the infighting, even as Donald Trump’s takeover seems to be complete. Markos and Kerry get into Biden’s improving fundamentals as the race to save America heats up.
