"The Ghetto Youths Alone Are Not Enough to End Museveni's 40 Year Old Rule!" Political Expert Tells

Top political analyst and veteran journalist Richard Baguma has warned National Unity Platform (NUP) Principal Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, that the support of ghetto youths alone is not enough to take over state power from President Yoweri Museveni. Baguma says Bobi Wine must accept that he is the underdog in the ongoing succession battle.

Baguma explained that Museveni’s inner circle, including his son Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), and son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo, chairperson of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID), holds immense influence that cannot be easily challenged.

“I speak this in good faith: Museveni cannot be overthrown through these elections. Even if his state power is removed like in Sudan or Libya, it will be taken by those close to him. People like Bobi Wine, who are not fully prepared, will find it difficult to take over,” Baguma said.

Baguma emphasized that running a country is not as simple as many of Bobi Wine’s grassroots mobilizers think. He questioned how some supporters would even manage to protect government interests abroad, in places like Washington DC or at the United Nations in New York.

He urged Bobi Wine to accept guidance from experienced opposition leaders such as Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye. Baguma said these leaders have the knowledge, contacts, and experience to help navigate state power transition successfully.

According to Baguma, the experienced opposition figures have maintained influence over key state organs and have consistently posed a credible challenge to Museveni’s rule. He said Besigye, in particular, has been closely watched by Museveni due to his background in the fight that brought Museveni to power.

While Bobi Wine enjoys strong support among ghetto youths, Baguma said Museveni exploits this by arresting and intimidating them to demonstrate his control, highlighting the youth’s inexperience in governance and statecraft.

Investigations show that in 2020, Museveni acted quickly when intelligence revealed that Lt. Gen. Henry Tumukunde had infiltrated Bobi Wine’s ghetto youth groups, using them to fuel protests during elections. Some of those youth remain in prison today.

Baguma also referenced historical examples, noting that when Museveni captured power in 1986, he sought experienced advisers like the late Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere and received guidance from Tanzania’s President Julius Nyerere to run the government effectively. He urged Bobi Wine to follow a similar path.

Finally, Baguma stressed that the current political environment requires strategic alliances and preparation. Opposition parties must work together and utilize elections wisely, as failure to do so could result in Museveni’s son Muhoozi taking power unchallenged in the future.