Morning Digest: The Arizona GOP wants to retroactively erase an election

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

● AZ Ballot, AZ Supreme Court: Progressive activists in Arizona have launched a two-pronged effort to unseat a pair of conservative Supreme Court justices and preserve voters' right to do so.

Progress Arizona is targeting Kathryn King and Clint Bolick, two appointees of former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey who voted earlier this month to ban nearly all abortions in the state by ruling that an 1864 law prohibits the procedure. Both justices face retention elections in November, where voters will be presented with a "yes/no" question asking whether each jurist should be permitted to serve another term.

If a majority vote "no," then a vacancy would be declared, which Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would then fill, subject to certain limitations. Such occurrences have historically been rare, though: Just six judges have failed to earn retention since the state adopted the practice in 1974, and none at the Supreme Court level.

But in 2022, voters denied new terms to three trial court judges in Maricopa County, and Justice Bill Montgomery survived retention with just 56% of the vote that same year, which the Arizona Republic's Jimmy Jenkins says was the worst-ever performance by a member of the Supreme Court in state history.

But Republicans in the legislature are seeking to prevent any judge on the ballot this year from being removed by voters by retroactively nullifying the results of any retention elections this fall.

Last month, Arizona's Republican-run state Senate voted along party lines to refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot that would all but eliminate retention elections for judgeships. Instead of requiring them at regular intervals (which for Supreme Court justices is six years), they would only take place if a judge fails to demonstrate "good behavior"—a high threshold that would only be triggered in limited circumstances, such as getting convicted of a felony or filing for bankruptcy.

In the absence of such an event, judges at all levels throughout the state would, in practice, be granted lifetime tenure until reaching the mandatory retirement age of 70. Should the state House, which is also controlled by the GOP, greenlight this amendment as well, it would go before voters in November.

But should it pass, it wouldn't just end retention elections going forward. The proposal explicitly states that it "applies retroactively" and that the results of any retention elections that take place this year are null and void—that the returns "shall not be included in the official canvass or result in the issuance of any certificate of retention or rejection."

Attempts like these to diminish voters' power tend to be unpopular with those same voters, as Ohio Republicans learned to their chagrin last year when they tried to increase the threshold for passage of all future amendments to a 60% supermajority. Arizona voters did, however, support two measures in 2022 that restricted their ability to amend their constitution, though both were much narrower in nature than the proposal Ohioans rejected.

And neither of those earlier Arizona amendments related to the fight over abortion rights, which will be central this year to races up and down the ticket. It's also possible that the GOP plan to hobble retention elections might not even make the ballot.

Republican lawmakers, frustrated by Hobbs' record-setting number of vetoes, are trying to bypass her by putting a variety of measures before voters. (Hobbs can't block the legislature from referring measures to the ballot.) But the Arizona Republic's Mary Jo Pitzl reported last month that Republicans are concerned about "ballot fatigue" if the ballot grows too long.

"The risk is everything would fail," House Speaker Ben Toma told Pitzl. Something just like that happened in California in 2005, when voters defeated a series of ballot measures that Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had put his weight behind in an attempt to circumvent the Democratic-run legislature. In their zeal to sidestep Hobbs and kneecap voters, Arizona Republicans could face a similar fate.

The Downballot

● Here's one way to avoid dealing with election results you don't like: just wipe them from the record books. It's not Orwell—it's Arizona, and we're talking all about it on this week's episode of "The Downballot." This fall, voters have the chance to deny new terms to two conservative Supreme Court justices, but a Republican amendment would retroactively declare those elections null and void—and all but eliminate the system Arizona has used to evaluate judges for 50 years. We're going to guess voters won't like this one bit … if it even makes it to the ballot in the first place.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap this week's primaries in Pennsylvania, where voters just chose nominees in the high-profile contest for attorney general and in several key House races across the state. But there's also some big news that has scrambled next year's elections in Virginia, with a prominent candidate dropping his bid for governor to instead seek the number two slot.

Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts to make sure you never miss an episode. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by Thursday afternoon. New episodes come out every Thursday morning!

Senate

● FL-Sen: President Joe Biden endorsed former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell at his Tuesday rally in Tampa. Mucarsel-Powell was already the frontrunner in the Aug. 20 Democratic primary to take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott.

Mucarsel-Powell faces intra-party opposition from self-funding businessman Stanley Campbell, but she ended March with a wide $2.8 million to $772,000 cash on hand advantage. Alan Grayson is also running, but the former congressman-turned-perennial candidate had just $98,000 in the bank.

Scott, for his part, ended last month with $3.8 million on hand. Mucarsel-Powell actually outraised the incumbent $3.5 million to $2 million during the first quarter of 2024, but the incumbent's deep pockets allow him to augment his war chest whenever he wants. 

The same may not be true of Scott's primary foe, attorney Keith Gross, despite his bluster. The challenger had all of $30,000 to spend at the close of last month, and while the self-described "very wealthy businessman" insisted to the Hill last year that he's open to spending "$20, $30 million" of his own money, he only self-funded $1.9 million through March. 

House

● Michigan: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for Michigan's Aug. 6 primary, and the state has a list of contenders here. However, collecting enough petitions to get on the ballot can be a difficult process, so it's possible that some of the candidates won't appear before voters this summer.

Five Republican candidates for governor, including ostensible frontrunner James Craig, learned this the hard way in 2022 after election authorities disqualified them after they fell victim to a huge fraudulent signature scandal and failed to turn in enough valid petitions. Even before this dramatic episode, though, there were examples of candidates failing to submit the requisite number of signatures.

Given all of this, it's anything but a surprise that no big names launched last-second campaigns. However, as we'll discuss, the close of filing did bring a pair of busy House races into focus.

● MI-08: One declared candidate who did not submit his name is Democrat Dan Moilanen, the executive director of the Michigan Association of Conservation Districts. Moilanen announced in December that he'd run to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in the competitive 8th District, but he ended March with just $2,000 in the bank before ending his campaign on April 9.

Four Democrats did file to succeed Kildee in this central Michigan constituency: businessman Matt Collier, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley, and state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh. McDonald Rivet finished last month with a $671,000 to $290,000 cash on hand advantage over Collier, who served as mayor of Flint three decades ago, while Pugh and Neeley respectively had just $55,000 and $24,000 to spend.

The GOP primary also consists of four candidates. The roster features retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves, 2022 nominee Paul Junge, state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, and Some Dude Anthony Hudson, who ran for president earlier this cycle. 

Junge, who is self-funding most of his effort, ended March with a $1.1 million to $91,000 cash on hand advantage over Synder, while Draves launched her campaign during the opening days of the new quarter. Junge lost the 2022 general election to Kildee by a wide 53-43 two years after Joe Biden took the 8th just 50-48, and his detractors are hoping Draves can put up a serious fight in the primary.

● MI-13: While hedge fund manager John Conyers III told Politico in September that he was planning to announce "soon" that he'd challenge freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar in the Democratic primary, the son and namesake of the late longtime congressman never went forward with his bid.

Four candidates, though, are hoping to deny renomination to Thanedar in the 13th District, a safely Democratic seat that includes much of Detroit and its southwestern suburbs. The most prominent challenger is Adam Hollier, a former state senator and state cabinet official who lost last cycle's crowded primary to Thanedar 28-24. Hollier finished March with $570,000 in the bank, but Thanedar's personal wealth left him with a huge $5.1 million war chest.

Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters, who holds a citywide seat, is also running, and while she had a mere $5,000 to spend, her campaign could still pose a problem for Hollier. 

Thanedar's victory over Hollier, who is Black, set him up to become the first Indian American to represent Michigan in Congress while also leaving Detroit without an African American member of Congress for the first time since the early 1950s. Waters is also Black, and she could cost Hollier support from voters who might otherwise back him over Thanedar.

The field also includes two unheralded candidates, former Southfield Clerk Sherikia Hawkins and perennial candidate Mohammad Alam. All of Southfield is located in Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib's neighboring 12th District, though it's unlikely Hawkins has much of a base at home: She resigned in 2022 after submitting a no contest plea on election felony charges. 

● ND-AL: Protect Freedom PAC, a group aligned with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, is spending close to $320,000 on a media buy in support of former state Rep. Rick Becker ahead of the June 11 Republican primary for North Dakota's lone House seat. We do not yet have a copy of the ad to boost Becker, who has pledged to join the far-right Freedom Caucus.

This is the first outside spending the FEC has tracked for the race to replace GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is running for governor. Becker, though, ended March with a large financial advantage over his intra-party rivals thanks in large part to self-funding.

Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who has Gov. Doug Burgum's endorsement, outraised Becker $449,000 to $278,000 with donors, but the former plastic surgeon threw down another $550,000 of his own money. Becker ended March with a $797,000 to $412,000 cash on hand edge.

A third Republican, former State Department official Alex Balazs, was the source of every single cent in his $106,000 quarterly haul, and he finished last month with a comparable $96,000 in the bank. Former Miss America Cara Mund, who ran against Armstrong as a pro-choice independent in 2022, launched her Republican primary to replace him after the new quarter began.

● NJ-10: Democratic Rep. Donald Payne died Wednesday at the age of 65 after suffering a heart attack on April 6.

Payne spent over a decade representing New Jersey's dark blue 10th Congressional District in the Newark area, a constituency that was previously represented by his late father and namesake. He dealt with several health challenges during his tenure, and his office said that, following his heart attack, "he faced medical complications due to diabetes and high blood pressure that led to subsequent cardiorespiratory arrest." 

The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein writes that Payne will remain on the June 4 primary ballot, and, since he faces no opposition, he's all but certain to win. Wildstein says that Secretary of State Tahesha Way would declare the nomination vacant after the results are certified by June 17, and that local county committee members would pick the new nominee at a convention. The latest this could happen is Aug. 29.

Wildstein also writes that it's up to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy if a special election will take place, and that a primary would be used to pick the nominee. Katie Sobko of NorthJersey.com also writes that the primary would take place 70 to 76 days after Murphy issued his writ, with a general election 64 to 70 days after that. This would mean that the seat wouldn’t be filled until September at the earliest.

Alternatively, the Washington Post's Mariana Alfaro writes that the governor could consolidate a special general election with the regular Nov. 6 contest, with a primary taking place some time prior. However, state law does not say when, or even if, a primary would have to take place under that scenario. Joe Biden carried the 10th District 81-19 in 2020. 

Payne entered the House more than two decades after his father, Donald Payne Sr., became the state's Black member of Congress following his 1988 victory. The younger Payne became a local party leader in Newark in 1992. He got his chance to seek higher office in 2005 after party leaders backed him for a spot on Essex County's commission, a move that came at the expense of an incumbent. Payne had no trouble in the general election for the same post that his father used to launch his own career in 1972.     

Payne claimed a seat on Newark's city council the following year even though he initially faced a rival slate of candidates backed by Mayor-elect Cory Booker before he allied himself with Booker for the runoff. The two men would spend the next several years variously on the same side and at odds.

And while Gov. Jon Corzine would sign a 2007 bill prohibiting people from holding multiple offices at once, Payne was able to continue to simultaneously serve in both county and city government because the law allowed any affected incumbents to keep both posts as long as voters continued to reelect them to each.

Payne was serving as president of the city council when his father died of colon cancer, and he decided to run to succeed him. The primaries for both the special election and full term in the next Congress took place on the same day, and Payne's most prominent foe in each was fellow City Councilman Ronald Rice, a Booker ally who had planned to challenge the congressman. 

But the well-funded Payne, who had the backing of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and the influential Essex County party, had little trouble in either contest. He defeated Rice 60-19 in the nomination contest for a seat in the next term, and by a wider 71-25 spread in a special election that featured a smaller pool of candidates. 

Payne likewise had no trouble winning the simultaneous general elections in November, though the meeting to replace him on the city council was another story: In an incident that attracted national attention, police used pepper spray on a labor leader who was furious at Booker's attempt to install one of his allies.

Payne, like his father, quickly became entrenched in his new seat, and he never fell below 80% in any of his primaries. There was brief talk that Payne could be in for a tougher than usual fight in the summer of 2019 while pastor Stephen Green was the subject of an extensive profile in Buzzfeed detailing his new campaign against the incumbent. Green, though, never actually ended up filing to run, and Payne had no trouble claiming renomination.

Payne's 2022 intra-party foe, progressive activist Imani Oakley, did make the ballot, and she raised more than $460,000 for her effort. Payne, however, held her off 83-11 ahead of what would be his final general election. 

● TX-23: Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed Rep. Tony Gonzales on Wednesday for the May 28 Republican primary runoff after remaining neutral during the first round, a move that the congressman is hoping will strengthen him with his many conservative intra-party critics. 

But while Gonzales could use the support of hardliners at home in his contest against gun maker Brandon Herrera, he's shown no interest in winning over far-right politicians from elsewhere. The congressman told CNN on Sunday, that the Freedom Caucus chair, Virginia Rep. Bob Good, "endorsed my opponent, a known neo-Nazi." Gonzales also had some choice words for "real scumbags" like another Herrera backer, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Herrera, Jewish Insider's Marc Rod reported earlier this month, has a history of posting videos on his YouTube channel with jokes about the Holocaust and Nazis through at least 2022. Most notably, one from that year shows Herrera calling a submachine gun used by the Nazis "the original ghetto blaster." The video, with Rod writes "appears to take a sarcastic tone" continues with a montage set to "Erika," a marching song utilized both by Nazis and the modern far-right.

Herrera went on to tell his audience he was "not really a big fan of fascism" and that "the best way to not repeat history is to learn about history, and the way that I know to get you guys to learn about history is to make really fucked up jokes about it." 

While Herrera, as Rod also reported, was an enthusiastic member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans back in his home state of North Carolina, he wasn't happy with Gonzales for labeling him a "neo-Nazi." The candidate responded to the congressman's CNN appearance by tweeting, "This is the death spiral ladies and gentlemen. He has to cry to his liberal friends about me, because Republicans won’t listen anymore."

Gonzales, though, has far more money than Herrera to get voters to listen back in his sprawling West Texas constituency. The incumbent finished March with a wide $1.5 million to $302,000 cash on hand advantage.

Judges

● MI Supreme Court: The leadership of the state Democratic Party this week endorsed both appointed Justice Kyra Harris Bolden and Kimberly Thomas, who leads the University of Michigan Law School's Juvenile Justice Clinic. Bolden, whom Gov. Gretchen Whitmer picked to fill a vacancy, is running for the remaining four years of her term, while Thomas is campaigning for a full eight-year term to succeed retiring Republican Justice David Viviano.

Each party will pick their nominees at fall conventions rather than through primaries, and neither Democrat so far faces any serious intra-party opposition. Democrats hold a 4-3 majority, and Republicans need to win both races to regain the majority they lost in 2020.

Poll Pile

• CO-08: OnMessage Inc. (R) for the NRCC: Gabe Evans (R): 43, Yadira Caraveo (D-inc): 38

Ad Roundup

• MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)

• WV-Sen: Jim Justice (R-inc) - anti-Alex Mooney (R) 

• IN-Gov: Mike Braun (R); Eric Doden (R)

• IN-03: America Leads Action - anti-Marlin Stutzman (R)

• VA-10: Eileen Filler-Corn (D)

• WV-02: Riley Moore (R)