Morning Digest: Primary season revs back up in Pennsylvania

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● Election Night: The downballot primaries come to Pennsylvania on Tuesday as voters select nominees for several key House races and one very powerful statewide office. As always, we've put together a preview of what to watch.

Democrats in central Pennsylvania will choose who will take on far-right Rep. Scott Perry in the 10th District, a constituency that Donald Trump carried by a small spread in 2020. Republicans likewise pick a challenger for Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in the 7th District in the Lehigh Valley, though surprisingly, none of their three choices have brought in much money in this very evenly divided constituency.

Both parties also have contested primaries for attorney general, which is one of the most visible posts in this perennial swing state. Democrats have a five-way contest that features, among others, an old Perry foe. The GOP establishment, meanwhile, is hoping that York County District Attorney Dave Sunday will vanquish Craig Williams, a state representative whom the Republican Attorney Generals Association trashed last year for "taking selfies in our office behind our logos."

You can find more on all of these contests and others in our preview. Polls close at 8 PM ET in the commonwealth, and we'll have an open thread to discuss the results at Daily Kos Elections.

Governors

● WA-Gov: Washington Republicans descended into chaos at their convention at the end of last week when their frontrunner for the state's open governorship, former Rep. Dave Reichert, pulled out of the party's endorsement process, blasting it as "dishonest" and "deceitful."

The drama was compounded after angry delegates overruled an attempt by GOP leaders on Friday to disqualify far-right Marine Corps veteran Semi Bird from receiving the endorsement. As a result, Bird secured the party's blessing the following day with the support of more than 70% of attendees—a victory that came about less than a year after voters in Benton County recalled him from his spot on a local school board. 

Republicans also opted for the more extreme candidate in another statewide race, the battle for lands commissioner, which is likewise open because Democratic incumbent Hillary Franz is running for Congress. In that contest, 86% of delegates gave their backing to retired scientist Sue Kuehl Pederson, who lost to Franz 57-43 in 2020, rather than former Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler.

Unsurprisingly, convention-goers likewise sought to stick it to Rep. Dan Newhouse in the 4th Congressional District, endorsing Donald Trump-backed businessman Jerrod Sessler. Like Herrera Beutler, Newhouse was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6, but unlike her, he managed to win another term last cycle.

The pro-Trump extremist who thwarted Herrera Beutler's reelection dreams in 2022, Army veteran Joe Kent, also won the support of delegates as he heads toward a rematch with Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in the 3rd District. The only other notable Republican in the race, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, skipped the event after charging that "the rules were sidestepped" to ensure an endorsement for Kent.

Finally, in the open 5th District, attendees went with Ferry County Commissioner Brian Dansel, a former Trump official who is one of many Republicans hoping to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers. The state holds its top-two primary on Aug. 6.

House

● IN-06: State Rep. Mike Speedy's new ad for the May 7 GOP primary aims to punish businessman Jefferson Shreve for trying to pass himself off as a centrist during his unsuccessful campaign for mayor of Indianapolis last year.

"I'm a moderate Republican," Shreve is shown saying. The narrator goes on to argue that Shreve is anti-gun, opposes the state's anti-abortion laws, and won't support Donald Trump. The rest of the ad extols Speedy as an ardent pro-Trump conservative.

Shreve and Speedy are facing off in an expensive seven-way primary to replace fellow Republican Greg Pence in a dark red seat that includes several of Indianapolis' southern and eastern Indianapolis suburbs as well as part of east-central Indiana. Indianapolis, which is consolidated with the rest of Marion County, forms 30% of the 6th District, so most voters didn't have the chance to cast ballots for (or against) Shreve last year.

That's just as well, as Shreve lost to Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett 60-40 after throwing down $13.5 million of his personal fortune. Shreve isn't deterred, though, as he pumped another $4.5 million into his new effort during the first quarter of the year while taking in all of $500 from donors. (No major candidates were running before Pence announced his retirement in January.)

Speedy, who is also writing checks to cover the vast majority of his campaign, injected $1.3 million during that same period. A third self-funder, businessman Jamison Carrier, meanwhile, deployed $750,000 of his own money, though he also took in another $104,000 from donors.

The other candidates have struggled to keep up with this financial onslaught. State Sen. Jeff Raatz raised all of $83,000 during the opening quarter of the year, and the additional $5,000 he loaned himself didn't do much to augment his war chest. The remaining three contenders brought in even less.

● MI-06: Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell, who was hospitalized on Saturday, said she returned home on Monday after being treated for ulcers.

● MN-02: Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced Monday that he would continue on to the Aug. 13 Republican primary even if he loses Saturday's party convention to attorney Tayler Rahm. Both candidates previously pledged to drop out if delegates backed the other's effort against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, but Teirab told supporters he'd changed his mind because he felt Rahm was too flawed to beat the incumbent.

Teirab cited his opponent's weak fundraising as well as a recent Fox News story reporting that Rahm's law firm had recently changed its website to remove mentions of the type of clients it had defended in the past. Rahm, for his part, used Teirab's reversal to argue to delegates that he's the only candidate "who is committed to honesty and integrity."

While securing party backing at a convention in Minnesota doesn't have any direct bearing on ballot access for the primary (as is the case in several other states), candidates often pledge to, in local parlance, "abide" by the endorsement and end their campaigns if someone else wins.

These endorsements are often especially potent on the GOP side. In a 2022 piece, the Star Tribune's Jessie Van Berkel noted that "Republicans have historically stuck with their party's pick" in primaries. Party leaders also have reason to prefer matters get settled early.

"A primary challenge, regardless of outcome, will weaken our chances to beat Craig," 2nd District GOP chair Joseph Ditto told the Star Tribune after Teirab revised his plans. Ditto added the party needs to begin making its case against the congresswoman "on April 28, not Aug. 14."

However, as Teirab's move demonstrates, not everyone likes to put their fate in the hands of a relatively small group of delegates, especially when they're the only candidate with the money to advertise to a broader primary electorate. That's the case in this race, as Teirab outraised Rahm $533,000 to $64,000 during the opening quarter of 2024 and finished March with a huge $662,000 to $60,000 cash advantage.

Both their hauls, however, are still drafted by what Craig brought in. The incumbent raised $1 million during the same period, and she ended last month with $2.8 million in the bank. The 2nd District, which is based in the southern Twin Cities suburbs, favored Joe Biden 53-45 in 2020.

● NH-02: Former Keene Mayor George Hansel, who had been considering another bid for Congress, said on Monday that he would not seek New Hampshire's open 2nd District and would instead support businessman Vikram Mansharamani for the Republican nod.

Hansel sought to challenge Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster in 2022, but Democrats spent more than half a million dollars to derail him in the GOP primary by running ads that boosted a more extreme candidate, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns. Despite raising very little himself, Burns wound up winning the nomination by a 33-30 margin, and national Republican groups thereafter made no serious effort to oust Kuster.

● NY-16: Rep. Jamaal Bowman has gone up on the airwaves about two weeks after his Democratic primary challenger, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, with a large buy that Politico says is in the seven figures.

In Bowman's initial spot, supporters complain that Latimer has received support from Republican donors, though he's not mentioned by name except in on-screen text showing a truncated Daily News headline. Most of the rest of the ad is narrated by Bowman himself, who says, "Together we're making progress" in "investing in our schools" and "reducing gun violence."

He then lambastes "career politicians who don't give a damn" (Latimer first won elective office in 1987) before concluding, "Our work is for the people and we're just getting started."

● WI-01: Former Rep. Peter Barca, who launched a challenge to GOP Rep. Bryan Steil late last week, unveiled a long list of endorsements from prominent Wisconsin Democrats on Monday. The roster included two would-be colleagues, Rep. Mark Pocan and Gwen Moore; state Attorney General Josh Kaul; and two former governors, Jim Doyle and Martin Schreiber.

Barca also secured the backing of one potential rival, Delavan Mayor Ryan Schroeder, who had expressed interest in a bid last summer. Pocan himself floated several possible names last year, three of whom have likewise decided to get behind Barca: Racine Mayor Cory Mason, state Sen. Mark Spreitzer, and state Rep. Tip McGuire.

● WI-08: Saturday was Wisconsin Republican Mike Gallagher's last day as a member of the House, meaning that the GOP caucus is now down to 217 members. Democrats, meanwhile, hold 213 seats, though that number should increase by one next week when a special election is held in upstate New York's solidly blue 26th District.

Republicans won't start adding back members until May 21, when an all-GOP runoff will be held in the special election for California's vacant 20th District, the seat previously held by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. More specials will follow in two other red districts, in Ohio's 6th on June 11 and Colorado's 4th on June 25.

But there won't be a special election to replace Gallagher in the 8th District until November. The congressman scheduled his resignation to take place shortly after April 9, which was the last day state law would have permitted an earlier election to take place. 

Many Republicans were infuriated by Gallagher's timing. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene even told Fox, "Speaker Johnson should be forcing Mike Gallagher to leave early so that his district can hold a special election, and any strong Republican speaker of the house would expel a member for leaving our razor-thin majority in such a delicate, delicate state." Gallagher was not expelled. 

A trio of notable Republicans are running to succeed Gallagher, including state Sen. Andre Jacque, former state Sen. Roger Roth, and Donald Trump-endorsed businessman Tony Wied. OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly is seeking the Democratic nod, but she faces difficult odds in a northeast Wisconsin constituency that Trump carried by a 57-41 margin in 2020.

Obituaries

● David Pryor: Arkansas Democrat David Pryor, who served as governor from 1975 to 1979 and in the U.S. Senate from 1979 until his retirement in 1997, died Saturday at the age of 89. The New York Times' Robert McFadden has a detailed obituary about the life and long career Pryor, who was succeeded as governor by none other than Bill Clinton. 

Poll Pile

• NC-Gov: Meredith College: Josh Stein (D): 45, Mark Robinson (R): 36 (41-39 Trump) (Jan.: 39-35 Stein)

Ad Roundup

Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.

• WV-Gov: Chris Miller (R)

• CA-20: Vince Fong (R)

• IA-04: Randy Feenstra (R-inc)

• IN-05: Chuck Goodrich (R) - anti-Victoria Spartz (R-inc)

• IN-08: Mark Messmer (R)

• NC-13: Kelly Daughtry (R); Brad Knott (R) - anti-Daughtry; Conservative Voters Alliance - anti-Knott (here and here); American Foundations Committee - pro-Knott and anti-Daughtry

• OR-05: Janelle Bynum (D) 

• SC-01: Club for Growth - pro-Nancy Mace (R-inc) ($246,000 buy)

• VA-05: Protect Freedom PAC - pro-Bob Good (R-inc) ($426,000 buy)

• VA-07: Derrick Anderson (R); Protect Freedom PAC - pro-Cameron Hamilton (R) ($578,000 buy)

• VA-10: Krystle Kaul (D)