Morning Digest: One big move just upended two big Virginia races

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● VA-Gov, VA-LG, VA-AG: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney announced Tuesday that he was ending his campaign for governor of Virginia and would instead seek the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, a development that has major implications for both contests.

Stoney's move leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger as the only major Democrat running to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term. Without mentioning his opponent by name, Stoney acknowledged in a statement that he had only a "narrow path" to victory against the congresswoman.

The mayor had good reason to be pessimistic about his prospects against Spanberger. She ended 2023 with a hefty $3.6 million to $758,000 cash advantage, and even an internal poll for Stoney from Public Policy Polling showed him trailing her 44-11. No other notable names have shown any obvious interest in trying to wrest the nomination from Spanberger, though as Democrats learned seven years ago, there's still time for someone to try to test the frontrunner's strength.

Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam spent years on an apparent glide path through the 2017 primary for governor, but all of that changed that January when former Rep. Tom Perriello shocked the state by entering the race. However, Northam's preparation paid off: He beat Perriello 56-44 before decisively winning the general election.

No major Republicans have announced bids to replace Youngkin, but the Washington Post writes that both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney General Jason Miyares "are expected" to run. Unlike Youngkin, though, both Republicans could seek reelection if either (or both) decides not to move forward with a bid for the top job.

The Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, however, was already shaping up to be a competitive and potentially crowded affair even before Stoney made his switch.

Babur Lateef, who is chairman of the Prince William County School Board, was the first to enter the fray when he launched his campaign in March. Lateef retains the support of former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, but McAuliffe's team told the Washington Post he was also backing the mayor. (Stoney is a McAuliffe protege, and McAuliffe's daughter works for the candidate.)

A third Democrat, state Sen. Aaron Rouse, kicked off his own effort just hours after Stoney's announcement on Tuesday. Rouse, who played in the NFL before serving on the Virginia Beach City Council, rose to prominence early last year when he flipped a GOP-held state Senate seat in an expensive special election. (Because the Senate is not up until 2027, Rouse would not have to give up his seat to run.)

The Post also reports that another Democratic state senator, Ghazala Hashmi, has been "prepping" a campaign. Hashmi told the Richmond Times-Dispatch on Tuesday, "We are going to have a big announcement next week."

No notable Republicans have entered the race for Virginia's number-two job, though conservative radio host John Reid said last month he was interested as long as Earle-Sears doesn't seek reelection. However, he's unlikely to be the only Republican interested in this critical office.

The lieutenant governor is charged with breaking ties in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a small 21-19 majority. Given that narrow divide, vacancies and special elections could change the math before the Senate next holds elections three years from now.

The contest for Miyares' job has been the slowest to take shape. Former Del. Jay Jones, who sought the post once before, has gotten the most attention on the Democratic side, and Northam and others have encouraged him to run again.

Jones lost the 2021 primary by a 57-43 margin to incumbent Mark Herring, who was narrowly unseated that fall by Miyares. Jones announced at the end of the year that he'd resign from the legislature even though he'd just won another term (Virginia allows candidates to seek two offices simultaneously), but he left open the possibility that he could wage another bid for attorney general.

The Scope earlier this year identified Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor as another possible Democratic candidate, though we haven't heard anything from her in the ensuing months. Would-be Republican candidates have been quiet about their plans, though that's sure to change if Miyares opts to run for governor.

Election Recaps

 ● PA-01 (R): Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick turned back anti-abortion activist Mark Houck 61-39. Fitzpatrick will now face a rematch against Democrat Ashley Ehasz, a retired Army pilot who lost to the incumbent 55-45 last cycle. This constituency in the Philadelphia suburbs, which includes all of Bucks County, favored Joe Biden 52-47, but Fitzpatrick has always run ahead of the top of the ticket.

● PA-07 (R): State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie defeated technology consulting company owner Kevin Dellicker 43-34. Mackenzie will go up against Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in a Lehigh Valley seat that Joe Biden took by a tight 50-49 margin.

● PA-10 (D): Former local TV news anchor Janelle Stelson outpaced Marine veteran Mike O'Brien 44-23 for the right to take on Republican Rep. Scott Perry, who is one of the most infamous Big Lie promoters in Congress. Donald Trump carried this central Pennsylvania constituency, which is located in the Harrisburg and York areas, 51-47 in 2020.

● PA-12 (D): Rep. Summer Lee beat Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel 61-39 following an expensive primary. Lee should have little trouble in the general election for a Pittsburgh-based seat that backed Joe Biden 59-39.

● PA-AG (D & R): Former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday will face off in November after respectively winning the Democratic and Republican nominations.

DePasquale outpaced Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer 36-20 in the five-person contest. Sunday, who had the backing of both the state party and the Republican Attorneys General Association, defeated state Rep. Craig Williams 70-30.

The two nominees will be competing this fall for one of the most powerful offices in this perennial swing state, and the result could impact future elections. The last person to win this post, Democrat Josh Shapiro, made a name for himself by fighting to protect the results of Pennsylvania's results in 2020 from Trump's barrage of baseless lawsuits.

The next attorney general will likewise take over a post that gives its occupant a great deal of visibility, something Shapiro demonstrated in 2022 when he won the governor's mansion in a landslide. (Shapiro went on to appoint fellow Democrat Michelle Henry to succeed him as attorney general, though she opted not to seek a full term.)

In the decades since 1980, when the position of attorney general was first made an elected office, Republicans had an iron grip on the job even in years where Democrats won the Keystone State's electoral votes. Democrat Kathleen Kane finally broke that streak in 2012, and though she resigned in disgrace four years later, Shapiro held the post for his party even as Trump was narrowly carrying the state in 2016.

Shapiro won a second term in 2020, again by a narrow margin. Democrats are hoping this fall will deliver their fourth consecutive victory for this office.

House

● AZ-01: The state AFL-CIO has endorsed former TV news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods in the six-way July 30 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert. The nomination battle for Arizona's 1st District promises to be an expensive one, as the most recent round of campaign finance reports show that five contenders ended March with more than half a million dollars in the bank each.

The two best-financed candidates are investment banker Conor O'Callaghan and businessman Andrei Cherny, who lost the 2012 primary for the old 9th District to none other than Kyrsten Sinema. Each of them finished March with about $1.2 million on hand, with O'Callaghan self-funding much of his effort.

​​Orthodontist Andrew Horne, who is also financing most of his campaign, had just under $700,000 banked even though he didn't bring in any cash during the first three months of last year. Galán-Woods, for her part, ended last month with around $680,000 available, compared to about $500,000 for former state Rep. Amish Shah. The final candidate, former Arizona regional Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer, was well behind with only a little over $100,000 to spend.

Schweikert, who does not have serious intra-party opposition, ended March with $1.2 million on hand to defend this competitive seat. The 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, favored Joe Biden by a narrow 50-49 spread in 2020, and Schweikert won reelection two years later by a similarly tight 50.4-49.6 margin.

● AZ-08: Venture capitalist Blake Masters is now running Islamophobic TV ads attacking attorney Abe Hamadeh, who is the son of immigrants from Syria, ahead of the July 30 Republican primary. Masters and Hamadeh, who respectively were the party's nominees for Senate and attorney general in 2022, are two of six Republicans competing to replace retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko in Arizona's conservative 8th District.

The narrator of Masters' first ad begins by arguing that Hamadeh is weak on immigration, then ramps up its Islamophobic messaging.

"He even said, 'America was founded on Islamic principles,'" says the narrator. That statement, which is attributed to an online comment Hamadeh made in 2009, is accompanied by a photo that NOTUS' ​​Tara Kavaler says depicts Hamadeh in Mecca. The ad goes on to praise Masters as a Donald Trump ally even though Hamadeh is the one who has Trump's backing in this race.

A digital spot from Masters earlier this month pushed a similar theme, though that ad went even further by suggesting that Hamadeh is unreliable on immigration "because Abe's parents were illegal immigrants." Kavaler, writing for the Arizona Republic in 2022, reported during Hamadeh's last campaign that his father had "overstayed a visa by nearly seven years."

Hamadeh, who informed the Jerusalem Post last year that he grew up in a mixed Muslim-Druze family (the Druze are an ethnoreligious minority native to the Middle East), reacted with furor to Masters' attacks, telling Kavaler that Masters was "having a mental breakdown."

Hamadeh, who has refused to accept his narrow loss to Democrat Kris Mayes in 2022, also alluded to Masters' concession that year to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. "He never had the courage to fight the establishment and the corruption after that last election," he said.

Hamadeh is running an ad of his own that attacks Masters as disloyal to Trumpists and extols his own service in the U.S. Army Reserve. The spot shows a photo of Masters stumping with Mike Pence last cycle as a narrator argues, "[W]hile Blake Masters abandoned America First and surrendered to the swamp, only one candidate's been tested in battle." The ad also makes sure to inform viewers that ​​Hamadeh has Trump's backing.

It's not clear how much either contender is spending to air these ads, especially since it remains to be seen just how much of Masters' wealth he's willing to part with. Masters loaned his campaign $2.5 million during the first quarter of 2024 and finished March with a $2.7 million to $249,000 cash advantage over Hamadeh, who is relying on donors. However, during this period, Masters also took back $800,000 of the $1 million he'd loaned his campaign during the proceeding quarter.

Four other Republicans are campaigning to succeed Lesko, who is running for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, in the western suburbs of Phoenix. Lesko is backing state House Speaker Ben Toma, who had $400,000 available at the close of March. Toma found himself in the national spotlight this month when he said he'd block attempts to repeal the 1864 abortion ban that the state Supreme Court allowed to go into force.

The field also includes Lesko's immediate predecessor, former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned in 2017 following a shocking sexual harassment scandal in which he pushed a pair of aides to serve as surrogate mothers. Franks, who is self-funding most of his comeback bid, ended the most recent quarter with a little over $200,000 in the bank.

State Sen. Anthony Kern, who was part of a slate of fake Trump electors, had just $70,000, while a little-known contender named Pat Briody reported having all of $100 available.

● MD-06: Former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney on Monday publicized endorsements from Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger and Steny Hoyer, who respectively represent Maryland's 2nd and 5th Districts, ahead of the May 14 Democratic primary for the open 6th District.

● NY-01: George Santos ended his newest effort to waste everyone's time when he announced Tuesday that he was closing down his independent campaign against Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. "It’s only goodbye for now, I’ll be back," added Santos, who is set to go on trial for fraud in September.

Ballot Measures

● AK Ballot: Voters will decide whether to repeal Alaska's first-in-the-nation on Nov. 5 rather than Aug. 20 because the legislature unsurprisingly remained in session past Monday. The state constitution requires election officials to place ballot initiatives on "the first statewide election held more than one hundred twenty days after adjournment of the legislative session following the filing," and there are now fewer than 120 days before the August primary.

Ad Roundup

• MT-Sen: One Nation - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc) (part of $15.2 million buy)
• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc)
• UT-Sen: John Curtis (R)
• CO-05: Dave Williams (R) ($10,000 buy)
• GA-03: Mike Crane (R)
• MD-02: Johnny Olszewski
• MD-03: Mike Rogers (D)
• UT-03: Case Lawrence (R)