"Bobi Wine Can't Defeat Museveni Through Just Elections & Become President,  That Will Never Happen," Declares Senior Political Analyst

Veteran political journalist and lobbyist Richard Baguma has poured cold water on the hopes of Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, ever defeating President Yoweri Museveni through elections. Baguma says it is nearly impossible for the National Unity Platform (NUP) leader to take state power only through the ballot box.

According to Baguma, Museveni’s hold on power is so strong that even if he were to lose influence, it would not be to an outsider like Bobi Wine. Instead, those close to the president, such as his son Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba and son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo, are better positioned to take over leadership. Baguma insists that Uganda’s political succession battle is far more complex than many of Bobi Wine’s supporters imagine.

He went further to say that governing a nation is not like running street campaigns. Baguma questioned whether Bobi Wine’s team could handle international diplomacy, asking how they would manage Uganda’s relations with the United Nations or negotiate with powerful nations like the United States. He suggested that the NUP leader still needs serious mentorship before he can be considered presidential material.

In his analysis, Baguma advised Bobi Wine to work closely with experienced opposition leaders like Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye. These veterans, he argued, understand how to challenge Museveni’s system and also have networks within state institutions. He even noted that Museveni fears Besigye more than Bobi Wine, because of Besigye’s long experience and proven ability to mobilize.

Baguma also dismissed the idea that Bobi Wine’s youthful supporters, especially from urban ghettos, could help him secure power. He warned that Museveni would only use their activism against them by arresting, intimidating, and imprisoning them, further tightening his control over the country. He reminded Ugandans how Museveni previously acted against Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde after he tried to organize youth groups to oppose the government.

At the same time, Kira Municipality legislator Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda revealed that Museveni is gradually passing state power to his son, Gen Muhoozi. He said Muhoozi is already learning leadership through forceful means, preparing himself to step into his father’s shoes. Ssemujju argued that elections remain the only chance for the opposition to gain power, warning that ignoring them could close the door forever.

Baguma also reflected on history, saying that when Museveni took power in 1986, he did not act alone. He sought guidance from respected figures like the late Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere and Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere to build structures of governance. Bobi Wine, he said, should also learn from those with experience if he is serious about leading Uganda.

Meanwhile, there are reports of secret discussions between Museveni’s government and some opposition groups. Parties such as the Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), Democratic Front, and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) are said to be exploring ways of forming a joint government to ensure a peaceful power transfer. However, these parties deny accusations of receiving funding from Museveni.

The debate raises critical questions about Uganda’s future. Will Museveni’s long rule end through elections, or will power simply shift within his close family and allies? Can opposition leaders like Bobi Wine change the political tide, or are they being outplayed by a well-organized system?

What remains clear is that Uganda is entering a delicate period of transition. With Museveni growing older and succession talk intensifying, the struggle for state power is far from over. For now, analysts like Baguma believe Bobi Wine still has a long road ahead if he is to become president one day.

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