Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Trump is on trial, as is the media coverage

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

Why Trump's Trial is a Big Political Problem

Others will write eloquently about this moment in the larger sweep of American history, but I want to focus on the political implications. Even though jury selection has just begun, defeatism is already infecting the coverage of Trump’s trial. No matter the verdict, Trump will suffer no meaningful political damage.

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I could not disagree with this analysis more. The scale of his crimes (Donald Trump falsifying records to cover up an extramarital affair) seems like small potatoes when compared to his violent attempt to overthrow an election or stealing closely-held national secrets from the White House and then showing them to random people at his beach club. Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison if convicted. Still, a felony conviction months before a divisive election is nothing to scoff at.

This trial is a big deal with massive implications.

Josh Marshall/Talking Points Memo:

The Dominating and The Dominated

Seeing Trump sitting there, even on this least weighty prosecution, you get a sense of why he’s fought so tooth and nail to avoid this. The biggest and most obvious reason is that he doesn’t want to go to jail. That is certainly a sufficient reason. But it’s not the whole story. At the most basic level, sitting in the dock is horribly and perhaps even fatally off brand. Trump’s brand is swagger and impunity. Always be dominating. Until you’re not.

Well, don’t crime in Manhattan, then.

David A Graham/The Atlantic:

Trump’s Alternate-Reality Criminal Trial

There was little drama in the courtroom yesterday. But the former president told a very different story to his supporters.

In historical terms, what happened in the Manhattan courtroom was momentous: the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former U.S. president. But in particulars, it was as dull as any other typical day in court. Judge Juan Merchan heard a series of motions from lawyers, ruling more often in favor of the prosecution but occasionally in favor of the defense, and punting other motions to later. Dozens of potential jurors filed through the court and answered a lengthy questionnaire, part of a selection process that could take weeks.

It was, in other words, a snooze fest—perhaps literally in Trump’s case. As reporters watching the proceeding in the courtroom and in an overflow room said, he appeared to nod off at one point early on.

Alex Finley/The New Republic:

Russia Is Buying Politicians in Europe. Is It Happening Here Too?

A former CIA officer explains how a vast, pro-Putin corruption network uncovered in Europe is a warning sign for the U.S.

Democrats for years have warned about Russian influence in the Republican Party under Donald Trump. But now even some prominent GOP members of Congress are sounding the alarm.

“I think Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States, unfortunately, and it’s infected a good chunk of my party’s base,” Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Puck’s Julia Ioffe last week. Representative Mike Turner, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, went further, telling CNN’s Jake Tapper a few days later, “We see directly coming from Russia attempts to mask communications that are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages, some of which we even hear being uttered on the House floor.”

Jonathan V. Last/The Bulwark:

The Economy Is Awesome and Here's Why That's Bad for Biden ????

Plus: Sleepy Don can't stay awake.

Joe Perticone reports that House Republicans are now ready to pass all of the things: aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and also forcing the sale of TikTok, and also seizing Russian assets, and—wait. Do we really think Mike Johnson has the juice to make this happen?

Brian Beutler/”Off Message” on Substack:

Biden Should End His Vow Of Silence On Trump's Legal Jeopardy

Many facts are not seriously in dispute, and Trump is filling the void with lies

Close readers have probably noticed I’m a fan of the Biden campaign’s rapid-response team, and its punchy Twitter account. It’s fairly comprehensive and speaks in the right register: Not panicky, not defensive. Disdainful, contemptuous.

It’s also, to me, a useful window into the campaign’s strategic thought. For instance: No matter how relevant or topical Trump’s legal jeopardy has been, the rapid-response team has been silent about it. I’ve taken this all along to reflect Biden’s mistaken decision to muzzle himself, his administration, and the campaign with respect to Trump and the administration of justice. The same kind of strategic thinking drove Biden’s effort to “move on” from Trump in January 2021, and it should be obvious now, if only in hindsight, how mistaken that decision was.

But on the first day of Trump’s Manhattan hush-money trial, the rule changed. Kinda.

Jason Rezaian/The Washington Post:

What was Iran thinking? Maybe not what you think.

Deciphering what the Iranian regime’s dramatic weekend air assault on Israel means is not as difficult as most observers are making it. There are really only two possible scenarios: Either the Islamic republic’s aim was not to inflict major damage on Israeli targets, or its aim was but it was incapable of doing so.

Either way, what the drone and missile attacks should clarify is that Iran doesn’t have the means to mount a significant conventional response to Israeli might. And Tehran is painfully aware of this.

Jamelle Bouie/The New York Times:

The Smothering of Abortion Rights Reveals Something Else About Republicans

The states’ rights case for determining abortion access — let the people decide — falters on the fact that in many states, the people cannot shape their legislature to their liking. Packed and split into districts designed to preserve Republican control, voters cannot actually dislodge anti-abortion Republican lawmakers. A pro-choice majority may exist, but only as a shadow: present but without substance in government.

When the demands of the living do begin to press against the will of Republican lawmakers or Republican jurists, they can respond, with the dead hand of the past. Not the past broadly constructed — one attentive to the silences of those who were missing, excluded or never recorded in the first place — but a narrow past, the main purpose of which is to extinguish new freedoms and forms of living.

Tony Michaels and Cliff Schecter on Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: