2026: POLITICS, AFCON, AND THE NEXT PHASE OF UGANDA’S OIL STORY

By Ali Ssekatawa 

They say “the sun that rises slowly lasts till evening,” and 2026 is shaping up to be such a year for Uganda — one unfolding with steady confidence and carrying the weight of significant national promise. January is quietly taking its bow, February waits in the wings, and the country steps forward with a renewed sense of political clarity, continental pride, and economic ambition.

The Presidential Elections have concluded, leaving a firm verdict of continuity and signalling the electorate’s preference for stable stewardship. Meanwhile, across the continent, the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco delivered its spectacle and passed the baton to East Africa, the region set to host the 2027 edition. As the elders say, “when a path is trusted, even the footsteps become lighter.” The CAF handover reaffirmed that the Pamoja Bid is on course and that preparations are aligned with regional aspirations.

Amid these political and sporting milestones, one theme threads through nearly every national conversation — Uganda’s oil journey. It has emerged as the steady drumbeat beneath public dialogue. Throughout the campaigns, all presidential candidates articulated their visions for how oil revenues could accelerate national development. This echoed an old saying: “where treasure lies, every farmer knows the soil.”

Two broad approaches stood out. The first is anchored in long-term planning already embedded in the recently launched NRM Ten-Fold Growth Strategy, which position oil revenues as a catalyst for Uganda’s economic transformation. The second approach, raised by National Unity Platform presidential candidate Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, called for a review of the Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) with licensed oil companies and a reassessment of royalty allocations to producing districts with a proposal to allocate 10 percent to them. The current allocation gives traditional leaders and local communities 1 percent of the royalties.

While the latter proposals may appear attractive at surface level, the broader development question lies in sustainability. Uganda addressed many of these concerns through the Petroleum Laws enacted in 2013, which established the Petroleum Fund. Inspired by global benchmarks such as Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Uganda’s model requires all oil revenues to be deposited into the Petroleum Fund under the management of the Bank of Uganda. Though still modest in accumulation, the Fund’s potential is already visible — the recently launched Hoima Stadium, fully financed through the Petroleum Fund, stands as a tangible example of what disciplined resource management can achieve.

This model underscores a broader global lesson: sustainable revenue utilisation is most effective when it prioritises long-term, productive investments over short-term redistribution. Qatar’s successful hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup illustrates this principle vividly. Petroleum revenues were channelled into the development of world class stadiums, an expanded hospitality sector, and integrated transport infrastructure, leaving a durable legacy that extends well beyond the tournament itself.

Morocco, the host of the 2026 AFCON, provides a comparable regional example. Its recent expansion of sports infrastructure and rising profile as a sports tourism destination have been supported by resource linked revenues and its strategic location along major maritime and energy corridors. These advantages have reinforced Morocco’s emergence as a key energy and logistics hub linking North and West Africa, demonstrating how resource income can be leveraged to catalyse broader economic transformation when aligned with long term development goals.

Uganda’s fiscal framework mirrors this philosophy. The Production Sharing Agreements and the Public Finance Management Act (Cap 171) create a structured pathway for revenue flows, ensuring that proceeds from finite resources like Uganda’s crude contribute to lasting improvements in productivity, human development, and national well being. Cash handouts may soothe immediate needs but rarely secure future prosperity.

The recent tour of Uganda’s oil and gas projects by the Minister of Energy, Ruth Nankabirwa, from Tanzania’s Tanga Port, where the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will terminate before Uganda’s crude is shipped to international markets, to the oil fields of Buliisa and Kikuube—marks more than a routine inspection of project milestones. It is a pre-commissioning tour ahead of First Oil.

Congratulations to H.E. the President for the emphatic victory and visionary leadership. May you live long to witness First Oil as Commander in Chief.

The Author is the Director Legal and Corporate Affairs at the Petroleum Authority of Uganda

Email: [email protected]

2026: POLITICS, AFCON, AND THE NEXT PHASE OF UGANDA’S OIL STORY

By Ali Ssekatawa

They say “the sun that rises slowly lasts till evening,” and 2026 is shaping up to be such a year for Uganda — one unfolding with steady confidence and carrying the weight of significant national promise. January is quietly taking its bow, February waits in the wings, and the country steps forward with a renewed sense of political clarity, continental pride, and economic ambition.

The Presidential Elections have concluded, leaving a firm verdict of continuity and signalling the electorate’s preference for stable stewardship. Meanwhile, across the continent, the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco delivered its spectacle and passed the baton to East Africa, the region set to host the 2027 edition. As the elders say, “when a path is trusted, even the footsteps become lighter.” The CAF handover reaffirmed that the Pamoja Bid is on course and that preparations are aligned with regional aspirations.

Amid these political and sporting milestones, one theme threads through nearly every national conversation — Uganda’s oil journey. It has emerged as the steady drumbeat beneath public dialogue. Throughout the campaigns, all presidential candidates articulated their visions for how oil revenues could accelerate national development. This echoed an old saying: “where treasure lies, every farmer knows the soil.”

Two broad approaches stood out. The first is anchored in long-term planning already embedded in the recently launched NRM Ten-Fold Growth Strategy, which position oil revenues as a catalyst for Uganda’s economic transformation. The second approach, raised by National Unity Platform presidential candidate Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, called for a review of the Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) with licensed oil companies and a reassessment of royalty allocations to producing districts with a proposal to allocate 10 percent to them. The current allocation gives traditional leaders and local communities 1 percent of the royalties. 

While the latter proposals may appear attractive at surface level, the broader development question lies in sustainability. Uganda addressed many of these concerns through the Petroleum Laws enacted in 2013, which established the Petroleum Fund. Inspired by global benchmarks such as Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Uganda’s model requires all oil revenues to be deposited into the Petroleum Fund under the management of the Bank of Uganda. Though still modest in accumulation, the Fund’s potential is already visible — the recently launched Hoima Stadium, fully financed through the Petroleum Fund, stands as a tangible example of what disciplined resource management can achieve.

This model underscores a broader global lesson: sustainable revenue utilisation is most effective when it prioritises long-term, productive investments over short-term redistribution. Qatar’s successful hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup illustrates this principle vividly. Petroleum revenues were channelled into the development of world class stadiums, an expanded hospitality sector, and integrated transport infrastructure, leaving a durable legacy that extends well beyond the tournament itself.

Morocco, the host of the 2026 AFCON, provides a comparable regional example. Its recent expansion of sports infrastructure and rising profile as a sports tourism destination have been supported by resource linked revenues and its strategic location along major maritime and energy corridors. These advantages have reinforced Morocco’s emergence as a key energy and logistics hub linking North and West Africa, demonstrating how resource income can be leveraged to catalyse broader economic transformation when aligned with long term development goals.

Uganda’s fiscal framework mirrors this philosophy. The Production Sharing Agreements and the Public Finance Management Act (Cap 171) create a structured pathway for revenue flows, ensuring that proceeds from finite resources like Uganda’s crude contribute to lasting improvements in productivity, human development, and national well being. Cash handouts may soothe immediate needs but rarely secure future prosperity.

The recent tour of Uganda’s oil and gas projects by the Minister of Energy, Ruth Nankabirwa, from Tanzania’s Tanga Port, where the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will terminate before Uganda’s crude is shipped to international markets, to the oil fields of Buliisa and Kikuube—marks more than a routine inspection of project milestones. It is a pre-commissioning tour ahead of First Oil.

Congratulations to H.E. the President for the emphatic victory and visionary leadership. May you live long to witness First Oil as Commander in Chief.

The Author is the Director Legal and Corporate Affairs at the Petroleum Authority of Uganda. Can be accessed on email: [email protected]