Morning Digest: Democratic congresswoman who locked down once-volatile seat will retire

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● NH-02: Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster unexpectedly announced Wednesday that she would not seek a seventh term representing New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. Her departure opens up a constituency that Joe Biden carried by a solid 54-45 margin in 2020, but that Republicans haven't given up trying to flip.

Kuster's retirement moves her district from the 42nd most vulnerable Democratic-held seat on Daily Kos Elections' House Vulnerability Index to the 14th spot. This shift means that Kuster's now-open seat, which includes the northern and western parts of the state, now ranks higher than the districts held by prominent Republican targets like Maine Rep. Jared Golden and New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez.

Republicans, however, would need to burn a good deal of money to make a serious play for Kuster's seat. Over three-quarters of the 2nd District is located in the expensive Boston media market, while the balance is split between smaller markets in Burlington, Vermont, and Portland, Maine.

And it may be a while before this race comes into focus. While the Granite State has stubbornly defended its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, its Sept. 10 downballot primary is at the very end of the season. New Hampshire's June 14 candidate filing deadline, likewise, comes after all but three other states.

Observers quickly speculated that former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, who lost a tight 2016 contest for governor to Republican Chris Sununu, could seek the Democratic nod. Van Ostern, who was the campaign manager for Kuster's unsuccessful first bid for Congress, notably fired off his first tweets since 2020 on Wednesday to praise his old boss, though he didn't address his own plans.

The Union Leader's Kevin Landrigan also mentions several other Democrats who could run:

• State Sen. Donovan Fenton
• Businessman Gary Hirshberg
• State Sen. Sue Prentiss
• State Sen. Cindy Rosenwald
• Former Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky
• State Sen. Becky Whitley

On the GOP side, Landrigan and the National Journal's James Downs list the following possible contenders:

• State Insurance Commissioner D. J. Bettencourt
• Nashua Alderman Tyler Gouveia
• Businessman Bill Hamlen
• Former Keene Mayor George Hansel
• Former state GOP chair Stephen Stepanek

Republican state Sen. Daryl Abbas, however, tells WMUR he won't run.

Kuster, whose great-grandfather served as governor in the early 20th century, grew up in what she described to Roll Call as a family of "liberal Republicans." Her father, Malcolm McLane, was a member of the state's powerful Executive Council, while her mother, Susan McLane, served in both chambers of the state legislature. Susan McLane also ran for the 2nd District in 1980 only to lose the GOP primary to eventual winner Judd Gregg; just behind was Charlie Bass, who would pose a major obstacle to Kuster's rise three decades later.

Kuster herself spent the late 1970s working for California Rep. Pete McCloskey, a liberal Republican who had famously run an anti-war primary challenge against President Richard Nixon in 1972. Kuster, who became a local attorney and healthcare lobbyist, joined the Democratic Party well before her first bid for office and was a prominent supporter of John Kerry and Barack Obama during the 2004 and 2008 presidential primaries, respectively.

Kuster got her chance to run for the House in 2010 when Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes left to campaign to succeed Gregg in the Senate, but she had a tough contest ahead of her. While Obama had carried the 2nd District 56-43 two years earlier, both parties recognized that the emerging red wave posed a serious risk to Democrats in this longtime swing state. Republicans also got some welcome news when Bass, a relatively moderate figure who lost reelection to Hodes in 2006, decided to make a comeback and won his primary.

Kuster, who secured her own nomination 71-29 against centrist rival Katrina Swett, waged a well-funded general election campaign and nearly overcame a brutal tide that devastated Democrats coast to cast. But Bass prevailed 48-47 as Republican Kelly Ayotte was clobbering Hodes statewide and the GOP was securing supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature.

Kuster had impressed fellow Democrats, though, and she faced no primary opposition when she ran again in 2012. The political climate was far better for her this time, though Republicans took advantage of a video of Kuster grabbing a camera out of the hands of what her campaign characterized as an "aggressive tracker." The Democrat, however, still beat Bass 50-45 as Obama was winning the 2nd District 54-45.

Republicans targeted Kuster for defeat the following cycle, and multiple national publications ran favorable profiles about her 31-year-old opponent, state Rep. Marilinda Garcia. But Garcia, who dealt with a plagiarism scandal late in the race, did not live up to the hype, and Kuster won 55-45 in another tough year for Democrats.

The congresswoman seemed to be on track for another decisive victory in 2016, but she held off her underfunded foe, former state Rep. Jim Lawrence, by a relatively modest 50-45 spread as Hillary Clinton was carrying the 2nd by a small 49-46 margin. However, Kuster returned to form by easily prevailing in both 2018 and 2020.

Following the most recent census, the Republican majority in the legislature was convinced she was safe going forward, and it planned to make her seat even bluer in order to weaken fellow Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in the 1st District. Sununu, though, believed both members were beatable, and the governor's veto threats created an impasse that sent redistricting to the courts and left the map essentially unchanged.

In 2022, Sununu supported Keene Mayor George Hansel, a self-described "pro-choice" candidate, but national Democrats successfully intervened in the primary. Former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns narrowly outpaced Hansel, and Kuster handily beat him 56-44 in what would turn out to be her final campaign.

The Downballot

● Another special election just delivered still more bad news for the GOP, but Democrat Marilyn Lands', well, landslide should really have Republicans quaking. As we explain on this week's episode of The Downballot, this was the first test of in vitro fertilization at the ballot box since the Alabama Supreme Court's ruling that imperiled the procedure, and Republicans failed spectacularly—with dire implications for November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the fallout from Tammy Murphy's shock decision to abandon her Senate bid and why Andy Kim's campaign has dealt a major blow to New Jersey's political machine. The Davids then explore whether the seemingly impossible might come to pass: Could Democrats take back control of the House before Election Day? Whatever the odds, Democrats need to be ready.

Our guest this week is Lauren Baer, a 2018 congressional candidate in Florida who now runs Arena, an organization dedicated to supporting the next generation of campaign staff. Baer tells us about her group's work to train and place staff with campaigns, including how they help staffers weather the dry "shoulder season" between election cycles. She also warns about the huge GOP advantage in funding their talent pipeline and explains how Democrats can make up this crucial gap in campaign infrastructure.

Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by Thursday afternoon. New episodes every Thursday morning!

House

● AL-02: Impact Research finds former U.S. Department of Justice official Shomari Figures leading state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels 59-24 in the first poll we've seen of the April 16 Democratic primary runoff. Impact tells Daily Kos Elections the poll was not conducted for Figures but declined to divulge its client.

Figures also earned an endorsement Wednesday from state Rep. Napoleon Bracy, who finished in third place in the first round on March 5. Figures, who benefited from heavy spending from a super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry, led with 43%, while Daniels beat out Bracy 22-16 for the second runoff spot. So far, the FEC has not recorded any notable outside spending ahead of the runoff for what's now a 56-43 Biden seat.

● AZ-02: Former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith tells the Sedona Red Rock News that he'll challenge freshman Rep. Eli Crane in the July 30 Republican primary, an announcement that comes a little more than two weeks after he filed paperwork with the state. Donald Trump carried this sprawling seat in northeastern Arizona 53-45 in 2020.

Crane was one of the eight House Republicans who voted to end Kevin McCarthy's speakership last year, but when the paper asked Smith how he'd have voted, he dodged the question by saying, "I wasn't there." The challenger instead made geography the center of his argument for why he'd do a better job representing this sprawling seat, saying, "Unlike my opponent … I live in a rural setting."

● DE-AL: Gov. John Carney last week endorsed Eugene Young, who resigned in February as director of Delaware's housing authority, in the September Democratic primary. Young faces state Sen. Sarah McBride in the contest to succeed Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester for the statewide House seat that Carney previously represented.

● FL-15: In a development that almost feels like a parody of what Republican politics have become in 2024, two different far-right trolls appear to be eying a primary campaign against Rep. Laurel Lee in Florida's 15th District.

Lee County Republican Party Chairman Michael Thompson informs the conservative site Floridian Press that Rogan O'Handley, a conspiracy theorist who tweets under the handle "DC_Draino," told him he "has not ruled anything out."

Despite the coincidental names, Lee County is not located in Lee's 15th District—in fact, it's more than 100 miles away—but that didn't stop Thompson from opining that O'Handley is "exactly what CD-15 and America is looking for in a Congressional Rep, an America First Christian Conservative who supports President Trump."

Laura Loomer, meanwhile, asked her social media followers on Monday whether she should take on Lee, a move that came one day after Trump called for someone to target the incumbent. Loomer, unlike O'Handley, is no stranger to running for Congress, but like Thompson, she hasn't let geography confine her.

The self-described "proud Islamophobe" predictably got crushed by Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel in South Florida's solidly blue 21st District in 2020, but then trekked some 200 miles north to target Rep. Dan Webster in the GOP primary in the 11th a cycle later.

Loomer held Webster to a shockingly small 51-44 win last cycle and initially announced that she'd seek a rematch, but she revised those remarks last July and said she was still considering. We hadn't heard anything new about her 2024 plans, however, until this week. (For what it's worth, the 15th District does at least neighbor the 11th.) The deadline to file for Congress is April 26.

● MD-02, MD-03, MD-06: The Maryland State Education Association, which has long been an important player in state politics, has endorsed a trio of House candidates campaigning for open seats ahead of the May 14 Democratic primaries. The union is pulling for Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski in the 2nd District, state Sen. Sarah Elfreth in the 3rd, and Del. Joe Vogel in the 6th.

Olszewski is the heavy favorite to win the nomination to replace retiring Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, who is also supporting his campaign. Elfreth and Vogel, however, are both competing in busy and unpredictable nomination contests.

● ME-02: Donald Trump has endorsed state Rep. Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver who was already a favorite candidate of national Republicans, ahead of the June 11 primary to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.

Theriault, who picked up Speaker Mike Johnson's support in January, faces fellow state Rep. Mike Soboleski for the GOP nomination. Soboleski struggled to raise money during 2023, though we'll learn by April 15 if the first quarter of 2024 went any better for him.

● MI-08: State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet has earned the support of the state AFL-CIO for the August primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, a fellow Democrat.

● Missouri: Candidate filing closed Tuesday in Missouri, but because of a unique state law, the Aug. 6 primary field still isn't set for several races. That's because the state reopens filing in any races in which a candidate formally withdraws within two business days of the filing deadline, extending the deadline for those contests to April 5. You can find the list of candidates who filed for each race by Tuesday here.

The election that was impacted most by a late dropout was the Republican primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in the conservative 3rd District. State Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman unexpectedly abandoned her campaign on Tuesday and instead launched a bid to succeed Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who is the party's frontrunner for governor. Filing will also reopen for the 2nd, 5th, and 6th Congressional Districts because of the departures of some minor candidates.

Coleman wasn't the only Republican to wage a surprise bid to become Missouri's chief elections officer. State House Speaker Dean Plocher, who had been campaigning for the office held by another candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, also declared Tuesday that he would now run for secretary of state.

Plocher, who has backed plans to make it tougher for progressives to amend the state constitution, is currently under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for a myriad of alleged ethics violations, and the Missouri Independent reports that the FBI has also gotten involved. Plocher, among many other things, has been accused of misusing taxpayer money and retaliating against legislative staffers.

Five other Republicans and three Democrats are also campaigning to succeed Ashcroft. However, while Plocher's withdrawal from the race for lieutenant governor reopens filing for that contest, no one dropped out of the election to be Missouri's next secretary of state during the two-day window.

Finally, we learned Tuesday that state Rep. Sarah Unsicker, who was expelled from the Democratic caucus in December for spreading antisemitic conspiracy theories and associating with a Holocaust denier, will not be on the primary ballot for governor. Unsicker tried to submit her name in February, but Democratic officials told her they wouldn't accept her filing fee because the party "does not wish to associate with you as a candidate."

Unsicker claims she tried again on Tuesday and was once again rebuffed. Five Democrats will be on the primary ballot, though, including state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessman Mike Hamra.

● ND-AL: Former state Rep. Tom Campbell announced Tuesday that he was quitting the June 11 primary to replace Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is running for governor.

Campbell, who claimed last week that the campaign of Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak "threatened" to air negative rumors about him, explained his decision to leave the race by writing, "I feel it would be a better use of my time to avoid a negative campaign, ignoring any threats and focus on the positive, where I can contribute to the well-being of others."

Fedorchak has denied Campbell's allegations, but she appears to have the most to gain from his exit. Columnist Rob Port, who co-hosted the radio show on which Campbell made his accusations, wrote that there was "concern among traditionally conservative Republicans" that Fedorchak and Campbell could divide this bloc enough for former state Rep. Rick Becker to secure the nomination with a plurality. Port now argues there's less of a chance that Becker, who co-founded the legislature's hardline Bastiat Caucus, can prevail.

The GOP field also includes former State Department official Alex Balazs, but it remains to be seen if he can wage a serious effort. The filing deadline is April 8, so it's possible someone else might still jump in.

● SD-AL: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for South Dakota's June 4 primaries, though unlike in Missouri, there was no major last-minute drama. The only member of Congress who is up for reelection in 2024 is GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson, but he has no serious intra-party opposition in this dark red state.

In fact, the secretary of state's office doesn't list any opponents for Johnson at all as of Wednesday evening, though that doesn't necessarily mean he'll run unopposed. The site says that "[c]andidates will not be listed until the Secretary of State's office receives the official certification(s) from county central committees or state political parties."

● VA-02: Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal publicized an endorsement Wednesday from Rep. Bobby Scott of the neighboring 3rd District, which she says gives her the support of all six Democrats in Virginia's House delegation. Cotter Smasal, who is also on the DCCC's Red to Blue list, faces attorney Jake Denton in the June 18 primary to face freshman GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans.

Ballot Measures

● NV Ballot: AdImpact reports that Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom has reserved at least $10.8 million in fall ad time to support a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. The group is collecting signatures to protect the procedure through fetal viability, which is usually 22 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. However, it's also hoping that the Nevada Supreme Court will reverse a lower court decision that's currently preventing a more expansive incarnation of the amendment from moving forward.

Legislatures

● MI Redistricting: The three-judge federal panel that struck down Michigan's state House map late last year has approved the replacement map that Michigan's independent redistricting commission recently passed. The court had overturned the previous map after concluding that commissioners improperly relied on race when drawing districts in the Detroit area, but it rejected plaintiffs' arguments that the new map had similar flaws. Plaintiffs have not yet indicated whether they will appeal to the Supreme Court.

While the new map significantly increased the Black population in several Detroit districts, the partisan impact was more limited. According to data from Dave's Redistricting App, Donald Trump won a 56-54 majority of seats, just as with the previous map. One seat did see a considerable shift, though: The 13th District in the suburbs northeast of Detroit went from a 64-35 margin for Joe Biden to just a 50-48 Biden win.

Democrat Lori Stone easily won the current version of the 13th in 2022, though it's been vacant for months following her election as mayor of the city of Warren last year. Stone's successor will be chosen in an April 16 special election, where Democrat Mai Xiong is heavily favored against Republican Ronald Singer. However, Xiong could be in for a much tougher race if she runs in the new 13th this fall.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

● St. Louis, MO Circuit Attorney: No one filed to challenge Democratic incumbent Gabe Gore ahead of Tuesday's deadline, a development that all but ensures he'll win his first full term as the top prosecutor for the city of St. Louis. Republican Gov. Mike Parson appointed Gore in May to replace Democrat Kim Gardner, who resigned to stop Missouri's GOP-dominated legislature from approving a bill that would have dramatically weakened her office. Campaign Action