Ukraine Update: Russia drives toward Kharkiv as Ukraine tries to slow it down

Just over a week ago, claims that Russia was initiating a new attack on the Kharkiv area seemed little more than rumor. A day after that, Ukrainian sources were reporting that Russia’s initial advance had been thrown back with heavy losses and it was unclear that Russia seriously meant to advance toward Ukraine’s second-largest city.

It’s clear now.

As The Washington Post reported on Monday, the city of Kharkiv was pummeled by bombs and MLRS as Russian forces pressed across the northeast border of Ukraine. By Wednesday, the BBC reported that Ukrainian troops had been forced to pull back from lines they had been defending since Russian forces were driven out during the spectacular Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022. 

Now several of the villages and towns that Ukraine fought so hard to liberate are once again being swarmed by Russian troops and the prospect of stopping them looks as difficult as it did when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

In the spring and early summer of 2022, after Russia had been forced to withdraw from the area around Kyiv, it was also beaten back in the immediate area around the city of Kharkiv. However, Russian forces remained close enough to lob conventional artillery into the city. For weeks, Ukraine fought at places like Staryi Saltiv, Zelene, and Lyptsi, trying to liberate these areas and drive Russian forces back from the city. Ultimately they were successful, driving Russian forces back to the border.

Now, tragically, some of the same villages are in the news again, and this time the movement is in the other direction.

Russian forces crossed the border at what was formerly the largest crossing between Russia and Ukraine north of the town of Vovchansk. Additional forces came down the highway at Pylna and along smaller roads between those two locations.

Since then, Russian forces have advanced at least 8 kilometers from the border, claiming to have captured villages including Krasne, Hlyboke, and Lukyantsi. Control of both Zelene and Lyptsi was in dispute as of Friday, as was much of the critical crossroads town of Vovchansk.

Capturing Vovchansk was a vital step in cutting off a primary Russian supply route and enabling Ukraine's liberation of much of northern Kharkiv. Losing it now would make holding on to positions east and south of this location much more difficult.

In describing what happened, The Washington Post puts it down to several factors: Russia has a larger force, scaled up after repeated mobilizations. That force has been given more time to train and prepare than the raw recruits thrown into Ukraine when Russia was trying to hold territory after its initial failure around Kyiv. Russia also has a lot of new equipment, courtesy of China, Iran, and North Korea. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine has not recovered from months-long delays in U.S. assistance created by Republicans in the House that generated devastating shortages on the battlefield. Those delays forced Ukraine to surrender positions it had held since the start of the invasion, and the continued uneven supply of weapons leaves Russia free to practice large-scale bombardments that Ukraine can’t defend against or match. 

More than ever, this has become a proxy war—not by Ukraine’s choice, or the desire of any nation in the West, but out of necessity.

China, Iran, and North Korea are putting weapons in the hands of Russia’s massive military. The West is providing arms to Ukrainian forces. But those Western supplies are arriving fitfully, unevenly, sometimes without much concern for Ukraine’s needs, and always months later than necessity should dictate. One hundred modern Western tanks would have been an indisputable asset to Ukraine in the opening phase of the war. They had a much lesser impact by the time they arrived.

When it comes to the current situation, there are reasons why it’s not quite so bad as Russia’s initial advance, and Russian propaganda, may make it seem. As the BBC reports, some of Russia’s claims exaggerate their progress. As of Wednesday, Russia was not in full control of all the villages they claimed. Ukraine has moved into defensive positions (some of the prepared positions were not located directly on the border, in part out of sensitivity to Western concerns about weapons firing into Russia). That line between Hlyboka and Lukyantski was still reported to be in Ukrainian control and the next few kilometers should be much more difficult for Russia than its progress in the past week may indicate.

(Note: Ukrainian forces talking to the BBC also reported that Russia had not fully captured Robotyne in the south, despite earlier reports. Good news, if true.)

Ukraine has also made major strikes against a Russian airfield in Crimea and has responded to increased Russian attacks against Ukrainian electrical infrastructure with a return attack of its own. The New York Times reports that fires were burning at several oil facilities, including in the port of Novorossiysk, following a massive drone attack by Ukraine. A successful attack on a power station in southwestern Russia reportedly has caused blackouts in the region, giving Russians a taste of what Ukrainians have been experiencing for the last two years.

But there is no doubt that the pressure north of Kharkiv is immense and Ukraine must resist it while not being able to shift troops from the east, where Russian forces are still pushing the area around Bakhmut.

Ukraine is in a tough position, facing what may be the greatest onslaught of the war, and putting enough men and equipment in the way of Russian force remains a constant challenge.

The truth is that it’s always hard for democracies to fight against dictatorships. No matter what the detractors of the United States would say, democracies go to war reluctantly. Short of a Pearl Harbor or 9/11, it’s hard to gain the full support of a raucous, divided political system and keep a government and populace focused through months or years of hardship. That was true when fighting Hitler and it’s true when fighting Putin.

China, Iran, and North Korea are excited about giving Putin weapons so he can demonstrate the superiority of authoritarian regimes over Western liberal democracies. 

With Russia’s invasion confined to Ukraine, the U.S. and other Western allies are insulated from the ugliness of this war. Americans are more concerned about the price of eggs than the cost of freedom. European nations closer to the fighting may be feeling more pressure, but this is still, for the moment, a war they only address with sporadic shipments of arms and the very best wishes for success.

That balance needs to change.

Western governments might even try a radical new tactic. For once, they could give Ukraine what it needs when it needs it. 

Ukrainian forces in northern Kharkiv discovered a house occupied by Russian soldiers. They rocked the upper story with what appears to be an FPV drone, entered the house, forced the Russians out, and despite everything going on now and over the past two years, took them prisoner. 

Somehow, this seems much more heroic than any scene of slaughter.

Ukraine may have concerns about regularly attacking across the Russian border, but Russia doesn’t hesitate to launch border-straddling attacks.

Russia has reportedly been probing the area around the city of Sumy, which has been largely free from attacks following Russia’s initial failure to capture Kyiv.

Russia is definitely not advancing without cost. Note the aircraft lost at the top of the chart. Those are jets that were smashed on the ground by Ukraine’s ATACMS strike against Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.

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