Morning Digest: Will this Trump hater turned Trump sycophant survive Tuesday's primary?

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded Content Leading Off ● Primary Night: Tuesday brings us one of the biggest primary nights of the year, and as Jeff Singer details in our multi-state preview, two South Carolina Republicans are in danger of finally ending Alabama Rep. Jerry Carl's solitary membership in the club of congressional incumbents who've lost renomination in 2024. GOP Rep. Nancy Mace's expensive renomination battle occupies center stage on this busy election night as allies of Kevin McCarthy seek revenge for the role she played in his ouster eight months ago. But while Mace has become a pariah with much of the caucus, she enjoys Donald Trump's support two years after he tried to purge her, though her adversaries continue to argue she's a phony. Those critics got some more fodder Monday when Slate's Jim Newell published a must-read piece reporting that, among many other things, Mace's staff had to prevent the congresswoman from responding to Trump's indictment in Manhattan last April by tweeting, "This is what happens when you pay hush money to a porn star." But Mace, whom Newell writes has mocked Trump supporters long after publicly refashioning herself as a born-again MAGA ally, may not even be the most vulnerable Trump-backed incumbent in the Palmetto State. Vying for that honor alongside Mace is Rep. William Timmons, who is hoping that long-running allegations of infidelity won't cost him in a primary against the founder of the local Freedom Caucus. South Carolina, however, isn't the only state hosting major races on Tuesday. Nevada Republicans will decide whether the man behind the score for one of the most popular video game series of all time can continue with his "side quest" to challenge a Democratic congresswoman. Voters in North Dakota will also weigh in on a constitutional amendment that conservatives across the country are hoping will lead to dramatic changes in who can be elected to Congress—and how long they can stay there. There's a lot more to watch across the country, including another race in South Carolina that's also been shaped by a prominent social conservative's alleged infidelity. Singer has much more in our preview. We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage! Senate ● MI-Sen, MI-10: Businessman Nasser Beydoun will remain off the Aug. 6 Democratic primary ballot for Senate after a state appeals court rejected his lawsuit seeking to reverse his recent disqualification over faulty signature petition forms. Meanwhile, Wayne State University Board of Governors member Anil Kumar has filed a lawsuit asking the appeals court to overturn his own disqualification from the Democratic primary ballot in the 10th District. ● UT-Sen, UT-Gov: HarrisX, working on behalf of the Deseret News and the University of Utah, shows Rep. John Curtis leading Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, 34-16 in the June 25 Republican primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney. Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson and businessman Jason Walton respectively take 12% and 4%, while 33% are undecided. This is the first poll we've seen here in over a month. The last numbers came from an early May Guidant Polling and Strategy survey for a pro-Curtis group, and it showed him defeating Staggs 42-14. HarrisX also takes a look at the GOP primary for governor and finds incumbent Spencer Cox easily defeating state Rep. Phil Lyman 62-25. This is the only poll we've seen here since mid-April when Noble Predictive Insights, a firm that sometimes polls for conservative clients, gave the governor a lopsided 51-4 advantage over his far-right intra-party foe. Lyman responded to these new unfavorable numbers by claiming to the Deseret News' Suzanne Bates that his own polls show "a much tighter race," though he has yet to release anything. House ● NY-01: WelcomePAC, a group that supports moderate Democrats, has spent over $1 million to help former CNN anchor John Avlon defeat 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff in the June 25 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Nick Lalota. This is the first major outside spending for this nomination contest. This effort includes a TV commercial faulting Goroff for losing to then-Rep. Lee Zeldin 55-45 in the last version of the 1st District. (Donald Trump took that incarnation of this eastern Long Island constituency 51-47 in 2020, while his margin of victory stands at 50-49 under the most recent map.) The ad goes on to promote Avlon as "the common sense Democrat who can win." ● TX-23: Multiple media outlets have reported that gun maker Brandon Herrera will request a recount of the May 28 Republican primary runoff against Rep. Tony Gonzales, though Herrera acknowledged, "

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Jun 11, 2024 - 16:00
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Morning Digest: Will this Trump hater turned Trump sycophant survive Tuesday's primary?

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● Primary Night: Tuesday brings us one of the biggest primary nights of the year, and as Jeff Singer details in our multi-state preview, two South Carolina Republicans are in danger of finally ending Alabama Rep. Jerry Carl's solitary membership in the club of congressional incumbents who've lost renomination in 2024.

GOP Rep. Nancy Mace's expensive renomination battle occupies center stage on this busy election night as allies of Kevin McCarthy seek revenge for the role she played in his ouster eight months ago. But while Mace has become a pariah with much of the caucus, she enjoys Donald Trump's support two years after he tried to purge her, though her adversaries continue to argue she's a phony.

Those critics got some more fodder Monday when Slate's Jim Newell published a must-read piece reporting that, among many other things, Mace's staff had to prevent the congresswoman from responding to Trump's indictment in Manhattan last April by tweeting, "This is what happens when you pay hush money to a porn star."

But Mace, whom Newell writes has mocked Trump supporters long after publicly refashioning herself as a born-again MAGA ally, may not even be the most vulnerable Trump-backed incumbent in the Palmetto State. Vying for that honor alongside Mace is Rep. William Timmons, who is hoping that long-running allegations of infidelity won't cost him in a primary against the founder of the local Freedom Caucus.

South Carolina, however, isn't the only state hosting major races on Tuesday. Nevada Republicans will decide whether the man behind the score for one of the most popular video game series of all time can continue with his "side quest" to challenge a Democratic congresswoman. Voters in North Dakota will also weigh in on a constitutional amendment that conservatives across the country are hoping will lead to dramatic changes in who can be elected to Congress—and how long they can stay there.

There's a lot more to watch across the country, including another race in South Carolina that's also been shaped by a prominent social conservative's alleged infidelity. Singer has much more in our preview.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!

Senate

● MI-Sen, MI-10: Businessman Nasser Beydoun will remain off the Aug. 6 Democratic primary ballot for Senate after a state appeals court rejected his lawsuit seeking to reverse his recent disqualification over faulty signature petition forms. Meanwhile, Wayne State University Board of Governors member Anil Kumar has filed a lawsuit asking the appeals court to overturn his own disqualification from the Democratic primary ballot in the 10th District.

● UT-Sen, UT-Gov: HarrisX, working on behalf of the Deseret News and the University of Utah, shows Rep. John Curtis leading Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, 34-16 in the June 25 Republican primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney. Former state House Speaker Brad Wilson and businessman Jason Walton respectively take 12% and 4%, while 33% are undecided.

This is the first poll we've seen here in over a month. The last numbers came from an early May Guidant Polling and Strategy survey for a pro-Curtis group, and it showed him defeating Staggs 42-14.

HarrisX also takes a look at the GOP primary for governor and finds incumbent Spencer Cox easily defeating state Rep. Phil Lyman 62-25. This is the only poll we've seen here since mid-April when Noble Predictive Insights, a firm that sometimes polls for conservative clients, gave the governor a lopsided 51-4 advantage over his far-right intra-party foe.

Lyman responded to these new unfavorable numbers by claiming to the Deseret News' Suzanne Bates that his own polls show "a much tighter race," though he has yet to release anything.

House

● NY-01: WelcomePAC, a group that supports moderate Democrats, has spent over $1 million to help former CNN anchor John Avlon defeat 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff in the June 25 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Nick Lalota. This is the first major outside spending for this nomination contest.

This effort includes a TV commercial faulting Goroff for losing to then-Rep. Lee Zeldin 55-45 in the last version of the 1st District. (Donald Trump took that incarnation of this eastern Long Island constituency 51-47 in 2020, while his margin of victory stands at 50-49 under the most recent map.) The ad goes on to promote Avlon as "the common sense Democrat who can win."

● TX-23: Multiple media outlets have reported that gun maker Brandon Herrera will request a recount of the May 28 Republican primary runoff against Rep. Tony Gonzales, though Herrera acknowledged, "I don’t expect the results to change, but I feel I owe it to my volunteers, voters, and supporters to leave no stone unturned."

Herrera would have to pay for the recount, and it's unclear whether he's made a formal request yet. Texas Tribune reporter Renzo Downey said on Monday afternoon, however, that he was still "awaiting confirmation from the Republican Party of Texas," which would oversee any recount.

Unofficial results show Gonzales led Herrera by just 407 votes, but thanks to low turnout that was still a margin of 1.4 points for an overall 51-49 defeat.

● TX-28: A federal court has agreed with a request by federal prosecutors and Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar's defense team to delay his trial over bribery charges, meaning it won't take place until after November's elections. The trial was previously slated to begin next month but now won't start until next spring.

It remains to be seen just how badly the indictments against Cuellar and his wife will hurt the congressman's reelection chances in a blue-leaning district that has trended sharply rightward since 2020. Joe Biden won this seat in the Laredo area and eastern San Antonio suburbs by just 53-46, but Cuellar has long outrun his party's presidential support in the area during his two-decade tenure.

Republican nominee Jay Furman had raised a mere $39,000 for the entire cycle when the last reporting period ended on May 8, but that was only five days after Cuellar's indictment and three weeks before Furman won the primary runoff. Second-quarter fundraising reports are due by July 15 and should clarify whether Furman has been able to capitalize on Cuellar's legal troubles and raise enough to run a serious campaign.

● VA-10: Four current and former officials in the Loudoun County Democratic Committee publicly accused Del. Dan Helmer of "inappropriate behavior" with one of their members in 2018.

Avram Fechter, who is a former county party chair, told NOTUS' Tara Kavaler that the body's sexual harassment policy was adopted as a "direct result" of Helmer's alleged actions. Kavaler notes that this group did not publicly provide any more details about Helmer's alleged misconduct.

Helmer, who is a frontrunner in next week's Democratic primary for the open 10th Congressional District, released a statement after the publication of Kavaler's story declaring, “These are baseless claims with no specific details from six years ago.”

Judges

● WI Supreme Court: Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford announced that she will run in next year's state Supreme Court race, making her the first prominent liberal candidate in a marquee 2025 election to decide whether liberals maintain the 4-3 majority they gained in 2023 after 15 years of conservative control. Crawford previously worked as a prosecutor and for a private firm where she was involved with cases against Republican efforts to restrict abortion and voting rights.

Those issues were central to Justice Janet Protasiewicz's historic 2023 victory and could prove potent for liberals again next year. Following Protasiewic's inauguration, the new liberal majority overturned the GOP's legislative gerrymanders and cleared the way for much fairer maps to be used this fall. The court is also expected to decide major upcoming cases involving abortion rights and the infamous anti-union law that then-Gov. Scott Walker signed in 2011.

Crawford's sole major opponent so far is former Republican state Attorney General Brad Schimel, who launched his campaign in November several months before liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley unexpectedly announced her retirement in April. Conservative state Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar indicated she was still considering the race following Bradley's news, and she reiterated that position to WisPolitics last month.

The nonpartisan general election takes place on April 1, and a Feb. 18 primary would be held to shrink the field down to two candidates if three or more are running. The filing deadline isn't until Jan. 1, so there's still time for the field to take shape.

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